FKLi : morning gossip...60-63

DJ +34.

8.30 : Dj futs -6. Regional +0.5%. Commodities firm. Dollar weak.

enough +ve external to spur 60-67 range for Dec ? I hope so. below 63, downside risk is 55. It looks like a day where the mkt will fight for resistance lvl with bears having the upper hand.

At a glance : Asian Equity perfomance in Nov09

Mkt/2008/2009/Nov09

MarketWrap : extending trading sell mkt....

Just I thought the mkt will discount last Fri’s selloff, fbm surprised the mkt with a big drop, almost 20p. Lesson 1 - big sell orders remains valid till the next biz day. (kwailow hedge fund style). Fbm also suffered a 6 points in the preclosing stage on YTL...i think.

Fbm first 5-min-meltdown caused fkli panic selling and later caused fkli panic buying too as fbm jump back vigorously as regional bounce back.

Both mkt fbm.fkli-dec are now below the 30days SMA- a significant support for a pullback in the recent bull run. So the risk of seeing 1230++ is great.

A cross above 30 SMA will stabilise the mkt and a cross above 7SMA is a strong buy signal in Dec, targeting the recent high again if not 1300. Till then, pullback towards 1230++ remains. Immedidate trading buy signal is when dec trades above 1260.

Fbm are indicating 50-70 range in the coming days.

US data week ahead ...

Strong sales recorded on the start of holiday shopping period....based on report over the weekend...could reduce the "dubai shock" effect next week. Next week, players will trad ein anticipation of Fri's important umployment data. ...under 10% is great news that could spark year-end run mood.

Tues : housing data
Thu : weekly jobless claims
Fri : Nov employment data ( -114k jobs ), unemployment (10.2% )

A relief that Fri was holiday...

Dubai debt pblm sent shock waves to Fri's Asian trading...HS and Korea tumbled almost 5%. Generally mkts and commodities were dw from 2% to 5% on Fri.

However, fkli.fbm are likely to survive better...as DJ only dipped 1.5% while Europe actually closed 1% higher on Fri. These are likely to soothe Mon's sentiment. Still, the fkli.fbm is expected to take a 5-10 points drop first on Mon. Instead, technical weakness could exert more pressure.

The mkt is pricing in a Dubai's default, the first goverment-link bond default since Argentina in 2001. It will increase mkt volatility in the coming days on financial stocks but unlikely to reverse mkt direction in the long run.

I dont think UAE will "allow" it to go under. ..plus US60b is "small" compared to the cost of credit crisis. ..plus UAE is oil rich.. repayment should not be a plbm in the long run.

MarketWrap: getting worse for bulls..

Regional turn sour as bank having bad day, “Chinese banks continued for a third day on persistent fears they may need to raise funds to meet potential tougher regulatory requirements. Chinese leaders set to meet in the next few weeks to decide on next year's economic blueprint. (MW) Hang Seng follows suit, -2%.

Mkt saw late selling as Europe –2% and DJ futs –100p proved too much pressure after having already to support weak regional tone in PM session. Banks and miners tumbles.

Technical weakness cause selling in late PM. Nov better off than Dec due to Mon’s expiry with fbmklci still at 70. Sentiment will turn short term sell if Dec09 does not recover when Nov09 expire on Mon as dec09 is below 30SMA ( the far right candle)

Buystop is lowered to 70 for Dec09.

FKLI : morning gossip....70-73

DJ +30, mild gains before Thanksgiving holiday tonight.


8.30 : DJ futs -2. NK and Kos near +0.5%. Mkts are pricing in strong commodities price again. CO near year high, SO year high, Gold record high.

Fkli will return to 70s. If we r lucky maybe we will see the mkt touching the higher band of 70-75 range. But given fbmklci sluggish, keeping my fingers cross.

Still, strong commodites will limit dwside potential. So focus is buy if above 68. 68-73 is range trading.

MarketWrap : tug of 1270-war continues...

Month end syndrome, school holiday syndrome ? Very quiet. Fkli saw 7 consecutive black candle but still alive near 70 - maybe it has 9 life!

Very underperform today given external strength. Did not really challenge resistance. 70 in and out. External gains on strong commodity after US$ slide to mth-lows against major currencies. Fbmklci failed to provide leads.

Minus the rolls, ttl outright vols about 1300. Surprisingly not many long rolls, kwailow closing book for year end?

Technically, no changes, negative zone but did not get worse. Buystop remains above 74 ( 70 for Dec) A strong buy if fbm above 75.

MarketWrap : nearing support level....bounce soon?

Fkli finished below 70 for the first time in 8-day. Still a trading sell mkt, ( red zone) Bulls are facing the danger of a mkt breakdown below 60. However, i think 60 looks good as a support as mkt is deemed in a range bound play. The real question is can the mkt bounce back in Dec.

To be sure, below 70 is a follow through sell mkt. Major fresh intra-day sell is when 60 breaches but a quick one as fbm is likely to be support at 60 if 70 breaks.

Buystop is lowered to 74 from 77.

MarketWrap : not much.. negativity remains...

Negative tone remains despite regional upbeat tone. Upside lack on weak fbmklci. fbmkli weak in PM as commodities stocks retreat after a sluggish AM session.

Quiet, about 800 lots traded in PM session ( Nov contract, outright)

70-75 stay out. It looks like a breakout play, like buy above 75. Trading sell if 70 breaks or if fbmkli dips below 70. Cannot aim far this week, target is seen limited within 60-85, either direction still a 50:50

Position buystop is lowered again to 77 from 80 on closing basis.

FKLI : wow so quiet..

..fkli waiting for direction., still in -ve zone 70-75. Given regional momentum, could have been better...probably hang over from last week'e bad breath. Maybe late buying will emerge later...?


US economic data this holiday-shortened week :

Mon : Oct exsiting home sales
Tues : revision of 3Q GDP from 3.5% earlier to 3% est
Wed : Oct personal income and spending, weekly unemployemyn claims
Thu : Thanksgiving holiday
Fri : 1/2 day

MarketWrap : negative to carry forward..

While off lows, the mkt did make any progress in reversing its recent negative tone after a 80-top. Prices either clinging at support lvl or stuck in a neutral, if not, negative territory. Looks like range trading next week, on negative tone first.

The mkt is still in a negative consolidation mode, a trading sell if below 70 again but rather wait for the next uptrend as mkt dwside is seen limited near 60 and expecting strong Dec ( 1300-1320)

Eager to go long…buystop is lowered to 80 from 82.

Forward Dec09 is seen higher than Nov09 next week as roll begins…long rolls ( sell Nov buy Dec) expected to be the dominant force.

FBMKLCI : members weightage..as at 20/11/2009

Maxis takes no. 10 spot, lower than many had expected, due to its low free float %, about 30% compare to CIMB/PB 100%)

The last column says : the impact on index point if the respective stock move by RM0.10.

FKLI : morning gossip....68++

DJ -90/-1% as concerns about the economic recovery resurfaced, the dollar strengthened and the outlook for the technology sector darkened. .CNN

8.30 ; DJ futs -20. NK -0.8%. Kospi -0.2%. Comodities lower.

FKLi is set to do 65-70 range with risk of knee jerk towards 60 if fbm breaks 70. fbm is likely to find suppport around 68.

Below 70, intra-day sell mkt.

MarketWrap : trading sell mkt..60-70 tomorrow?

Despite weak external, fbm downside was limited by strong commodities. Financials weak. Overall subdue, focus on Maxis ( 5.42/+8%).

Fkli not so lucky…no commodity to support…..hitting psychological support of 70 as sentiment was technically negative after it breached 7SMA. Dwside risk towards 60 growing… the only good news is fbm still above 75/7SMA and premium to fkli.

FKLi intra day resistance for trading is lowered to 78 from 80.

Well, unless the mkt can do wonders tomorrow, meaning a closing above 82, we r probably looking at 60-90 boring range for the remaining Nov. Below 70, a trading sell.

Next position-buy is “82 stop on closing.”

FKLI : trading sell coming soon ?

Yes, if mkt weakness continues tomorrow, below 7SMA or the uptrend line.

After 2-day of toppishness and with the mkt nearing break-or-consolidate junction, I wonder whether we r looking at 60-90 range for the rest of this month before another attempts in Dec.

Still keeping my fingers cross for another day or two, generally below 80 is negative-bias mkt.

Sell stops is raised to 74 from 70. Generally, buy signal is when mkt regains 80. Below 7SMA, even 70 does not look like good bargain anymore as the mkt is deemed entering pullback mode.

FKLI : damn...below expectations

The first sign of bad vibe was fkli failing to top 86 even when fbm hitting 88. Intra-day technical weakness followed plus regional also experienced profit take selling

Chart outlook remains the same, bullish but breakout potential is put to hold tomorrow. Objective is to finish at upper 80s, awaiting AK's Maxis feel good factor on Thu. 7SMA or the uptrend line should continue to provoide support for dwside tomorrow.

Fresh intra-day buy signal is above 80. If below wait at support lvl to long.

FKLI : technically bullish...above 80

Mkt is likely to stay firm, meaning triangle zone, if no further fresh bullish breakout 86.5. For Tues's trading, above 80 is a strong buy. Seller should probably take a day off first as Mon's action reinforces 1300 outlook.

In terms on relationship, fbm above 73 = fkli near 80 Fbm above 80 = fkli 85-90

Short term long's stop is raised again to 70 from 60.

FKLI : bedtime story...zzzzz1z3z00

Reaching for 1300 this week ?? after a strong closing Fri's that saw kwailow buying..

Bring forward +ve momentum and one step at a time, 1280 is the target Mon. In general, anticipating bullish trading range of 1270-1300 first till -ve developement exists. So above 70, no hurry for initiate sell, let the mkt run first.

Short term long's stop is raised to 1260.

Mon,Tue.Wed -cuti

US economic data week ahead...

After 2-week of gains, the next leg will count on consumer speading data on early Monday ( Oct retail sales +0.9% est ) A positive data would indicates consume may be more willing to splurge this holiday season.

Others major data > housing data on Wed and Thu's weekly jobless claims