Monday, August 31, 2009

Economic data week ahead : US focus

selected few....

Tues : Aug auto sales

Thus : Aug sales of store

Fri : Aug payrolls ( est -225k jobs vs -247k in July ), unemployment ( est 9.5% vs 9.4% in July )

Friday, August 28, 2009

MarketWrap : Merdaka!...fkli ends up 1% in Aug




China continues to offset DJ’s effect. Trimming liquidity (less money in the mkt) still is the main drag issue in China in Aug.

Fbm failed to reach 80s but instead experienced a last tick pullback from 76 to 74. This caused kneejerk selling in Sep contract ( the far right candle ) but Aug stagnant, as the final settlement price has already be decided. ( FSV = 1177.5 )


A strong, +17.5, but slow week. Most gains registered on Monday. but due to last minute selling in Sep, ahead of long weekend also, this means a potential 10 point gap on the continuous chart on Tues. So mkt can be volatile while the mkt trying to figure out its exact intention.








FKLI : morning gossip.....1175++

DJ +30, eight days winnning streak since Aug 18, a gain of almost 450 points , since strong housing data.

8.20 : DJ futs -6. Reigonal near 0.5% to 1% gain. Commodities firm. RM firm.

A good chance to finish the week at a upper range, near 1180, a springboard to 1200 next week. Internal sentiment seen positive, just worry that HS n SH could be a drag later.

Fkli range is seen at 1170-1181.5.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

MarketWrap : still testing the water....looking stronger



Recent DJ’s small gain continues to play with players mindset as far as the next major direction is concerned. Regional mostly lower, consolidation mode ahead of mth end.

While range bound, its encouraging to see the mkt recapturing 70s, even though its just a baby step. Fbm is especially resilient today, also near week high, maybe the bulls will have something to cheer if fbm opens higher tomorrow.

FKLI : morning gossip....1170++

DJ +4, flat

8.20 : DJ futs -6. Regional off to a weak start. Weak commodities, weak local currency.

Fkli is again put on a defensive play and is likely to hold its ground above 7SMA, near 1168. Below 1174 is intra-day sell.

Fbm may gain on Zeti's strong 4Q outlook.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

MarketWrap : mkt freeze………totally irrelevant



Regional and Europe firm but no significant clear direction to jump start our mkt. Prices in-and-out of flat line. DJ small gains also fail to trigger interest yet.

So quiet. Volumes mostly from roll activities -Aug 80% roll while Sep 95% roll. While local sentiment remains cautious after a 20-point gain on Monday, kwailow roll this mth indicates that they r actually more bullish than the previous mth. Therefore, providing support near 1170 indirectly.

Chart stays same same. Minor positive signs are appearing, like 7SMA is positive for the first time in 7-day. But of course no crossover yet.

FKLI : morning gossip....1175++

DJ +30

8.20 : DJ futs -20. Regional near 1% gains. Commodities softer. Crude off year high but above 70 and lofty.

DJ gains enough to support early sentiment and keep the mkt above 70 or 7SMA but unlikely to generate fresh interest. Boring probably in early morning. 1170-1180 band trading.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

MarketWrap : lower but no big dent yet...


A day you just wish that the mkt would remain steady as upside seems too much to ask for. And it did by staying above 70. Sporadic selling did not turn into something really negative on strong support at lower end. Also thanks to HS steadiness.

Regional lost about 1%, only marginally affected by SH. SH tumbles more than 5% in early PM but managed to recoup 50% of the losses. HS considered strong despite selloff incidents in SH.

No big move today, everything remains the same, still a buy mkt, and a waiting game.



FKLI : morning gossip...1175++

DJ flat.

8.20 : DJ futs -20.Regional is pointing to profit tale start, off 0.5%. Commodities strong in early Asian hours.

There will be no immediate follow through buying to push it above 1180, defensive first and if support holds maybe we will see a strong mkt again. 1170-1180 neutral range.

Above 1165 is a buy mkt.

Monday, August 24, 2009

MarketWrap : reversing last week negatives....


Fkli strong run today, almost erased last week losses. Fbm slow, last minutes push but encouraging.- consistently above 7SMA. Four consecutive days of strong external effect finally kicked in today.

While its still to early to call for a breakout higher, above 1200 this week, the mkt is seen at the upper-positive range, 70-90 and therefore significantly reduces downside risk below 1150, keeping a strong posture ahead of Sep while at the same time waiting for SMA line to curve back up for a more convincing breakout signals. Sounds very good in writing ….indeed! .




FKLI : morning gossip...1165-1170

DJ finished strong last week on housing data.

8.30 : DJ futs +11. Regional very upbeat. NK up almost 3% . Kospi +1.5%.

With Asian currency and commodities strong in early going, maybe the Fkli's bulls will have a better upside luck this week.

Market is seen strong near 1170 first before making the next moves. This would be the first time in 5-day that mkt can really challege short term resistance lvl. Can mkt sustains....i bet yes but would not run far, instead creating a strong base for Sep's breakout. ...fingers cross.

Above 1160 is a buy mkt.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Economic data week ahead : US focus.....

going forward look out for job and consumer data, namely jobles claims and unemployment , income and spending for indication of a "rebound mkt" as housing data confirms a "recovery mkt" last Friday. The next big move is expected in Sep....dont miss it!

Wed : July new home sales ( est 390k unit)

Fri : July personal income and spending

Friday, August 21, 2009

MarketWrap : no moves...but -ve tone prevails.



A VERY quiet day, players are satisfied to keep the mkt at a neutral range and wait for next week.

A negative week, -2%, and holding above 1150. Negative outlook continues unless the mkt can clear 1170 next week.- green area. In the meantime, downwad momentum and risk will expand to 1120++ ( 50% adjustment ) next week if 1150 fails to hold.
Short-term selling below 1150 is recommended early next week.

This week, despite DJ strong gains towards the end of the week, regional was sluggish. While its easy to point fingers at China, DJ's 3-day winning streak also came about where yen ( $/Y) and US T-10y price hit multiple mths high. – meaning “global fund” are not investing in equity this week…probably for the rest of the mth ! Too vague and complicated…I think just stick to charting.


FKLI : morning gossip...1165++

DJ +70, on banks and techs, 3-day winning streak. But surprisingly US 10-year T price remains strong during these three days gains....equity strong, credit mkt weak. Apa hal ? buying not broadbased ?

8.30 : DJ futs -12. Regional mixed, still cautious b4 China opening. NK -50.

Not anticipating a breakout higher today but Fkli is seen attempting to "park" near 1170 resistance. 1160-1170 upper range.

Above 1160 is intra-day buy.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

MarketWrap : from pullback to stabilising


Regional strong on China rebound, on bargain buying, finally, after recent minus–20%-profit-take selling. A change of fortune ? …too early to tell so choppy days ahead.

Fbm.fkli still remains in negative territory. Prices recover on external push but still lack the internal bull power to generate a breakout. Market remains within yesterday’s trading range - meaning boring.

Fkli position itself near immediate resistance lvl. But it looks like the mkt will stuck within 7 and 14 SMA ahead of the weekend. Probably better chance next week.
50-70 tomorrow, stay out and go for holiday.

Do not sell if above 1150 tomorrow.

FKLI : morning gossip...1155-1160

DJ +61, extends 2-day gains on a spike in crude oil prices, +5% on a surprise drop in weekly inventories.

8.30 : DJ futs -8. Regional marginally higher and flat, muted reaction to DJ, like yesterday. Waiting for taiko's direction

A lucky day for bull ? ....yes from potential "pullback" to "stability" first but the mkt is unlikely to turn to "growth" today as the immediate buy signal is above 1170 today....which seems "unreachable" today.

Below 1149 is renewed fresh selling pressure.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

MarketWrap : in danger of another breakdown...


After a cautious AM, prices fell sharply in the afternoon on China selloff. But activities were generally quiet, no buyers, just factoring in China losses. Fkli stuck near 50, just 3 points range in the afternoon.

Despite yesterday’s hope, chart outlook turning for the worse – reinforcing a trading-sell mkt for awhile before you see uptrend resumption.


How low can it go ? Bare in mind, downside is near the intended target of 1140. This is the first pit stop to gauge bulls’ conviction. Unless external factors are very bearish going forward, 1140 should stay, at least this week. If not, max risk is seen at 1120 this week.

I think it’s a bit risky for bargain-buy strategy this month as selling in stocks are likely to persist till mth end before any rebound in the beginning of 4Q. Prefer to consider long after stabililty, some bounce - meaning above 7SMA or Fbm above 1170. Wait for signal don’t guess!

FKLI : morning gossip...1165-1170

DJ +80/+1%, despite weak housing data, recovery from a 3% declines in the past two session.

8.15 : DJ futs -20. Regional flat to marginally higher, yet to digest DJ gains.

Enough to reverse mkt sentiment today ? ...unlikely. DJ gains came despite worst than expected housing result, so to many this is just an adjustment, doubtful any major players will chase the mkt yet and upside may still see profit take activities today.

Fkli may just park at short term resistance lvl at best, around 1170-1175.

Initial trading range is seen at 1160-1170. Above 60, no sell signal.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

MarketWrap : mild recovery....


After morning follow through selling, prices mostly recovered in the afternoon on short covering later. Sellers booked profit first waiting for DJ next move.

However, the limited losses would not change the mkt negative outlook, buyers is expected to sidelines and still a pullback mkt.

Despite regaining 1160, Fkli still a bit shaky till the mkt secures the green zone. In the meantime, a trading sell mkt, targeting the red zone. Immediate resistance is lowered to 1170. Fbm chart looks terrible after breaking below 1170.
Any upside, if any, is seen as a recovery phase first.

FKLi : morning gossip.........1160++

DJ -190/-2% on Fri's follow through as players took weak labor mkt, weak retailer sector result as an exucse to take profits.

8.25 : DJ futs stabilising +4. Regional flat.

Another big test. The mkt is seen lower extending it pullback mode, targting 1/3 adjustment near 1140++ this round. Its unlikely to reverse yesterday's negative, at best consolidate on a neutral stance ( in between the red and green area) if not another fresh round of selling if fresh lows are triggered.

Below 1170 is a trading sell mkt. Long term buying can wait as SMA lines are now converging in a horizontal formation.

Monday, August 17, 2009

MarketWrap : sell first ask later...not a safe floor yet


Asian selloff as DJ overnight slump reinforces recent concerns and toppishness that recent gains were “ too much” amid still-weak US employment data and consumer confidence.

Selling is still seen as profit take, with no change of the underlying sentiment

Fbm.fkli looks like a pullback mkt - the bulls may no be so lucky this time around compared with last week Wed’s scare due to the big price gap with 7SMA that would make a reversal even tougher.

In a pullback from recent 125-gains, 1060-1185, min adjustment is seen at 1140++.Bargain should at least wait here, no hurry OR if the mkt regains “green zone”. The “red zone” represents immediate downside risk


FKLI : morning gossip.....1180-1185

DJ -76 on weak consumer sentiment.

8.30 : -34. Regional is dw 0.5% to 1%

Another acid test...back to consolidation mode at best if not a pullback mode. Fbm is likely to stay above 80 on initial selling pressure. fkli breakdown risk below 1180 is great but could recover if discount is wide.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Economic data week ahead: ..US focus

selected few....

Tues : July housing starts ( est 598k unit ), building permits ( ests 576k unit)

Fri : July existing home sales ( est 4.98m unit)

Friday, August 14, 2009

MarketWrap : the missing link ...a breakout



Regional was shaky but managed to recover on late buying activities, except China –3%. Strong Europe help to neutralize “China’s factor”

Everyday suffers from profit-take syndrome but still a positive week, maybe better luck next week. A very quiet week....mostly range bound within 80-90, toppish but resilient. At least it still stays at the upper range, surviving Wed’s negative outlook. Buy on strength at opening next week – above 86 or 90.

With prices in and out of 7SMA, use 14SMA (yellow line) instead to get sell signal or below 1170. But it looks like a breakout higher mkt.

FKLI : morning gossip...TGIF..1180-1185

DJ +36

8.30 : DJ futs -6 . Regional upbeat depsite weaker-than-expected DJ overnight. NK +1% Kos+1.5%

Mkt is seen firm in a range bound trade , 1180-1185 if lucky 1190. A breakout higher is unlikely till HS opens. In the mean time DJ gains would hold the mkt above 1180, awaitng fbm signals, which has been rathr mute lately...hopefully to see some surprises today

Thursday, August 13, 2009

MarketWrap : bull's lucky day....



Regional strong, HS upbeat, China up but cautious.

Very quiet….especially in the afternoon

Fbm erased yesterday losses but still a range bound mkt. While definitely lacking upside fkli bulls can take consolation that there was no follow through losses that could further damage the chart outlook. Almost back to square one for bulls...and the good news is, DJ futs is bullish.


Both mkt above 7SMA, 1180-1200 range is save again for now but need to breakout of 1190 to be convincing. 1170-1190 range is very hard to trade for a lack of "strong bias" tone.








FKLI : morning gossip....1180-1185

DJ +120, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates near historic lows and signaled the economy has finally started to stabilize...CNN.

8.40 : DJ futs +18. Regional firm around 0.5%.

Fkli is seen returning to higher band of 1180-1185. A brekaout is unlikely as the mtk will be busy trying to neutralise yesterday technical's negatives first- to finish aobve the 7SMA around 1183.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

MarketWrap : short term sell market....


Regional, specifically HS and China, tumbled on profit take selling ahead of Fed.

The first major setback in more than 4-weeks as Fbm.fkli finished below 7SMA. In 4-week, the mkt rallied, more than 125 points from 1060++ to 1185++. Pullback scenario : min 1/3 pullback > Horizontal support line ( see above) around 1140++. Immediate support is seen at 1160

Technically, mkt outlook shifts to a short term sell for consolidation mode.

Above 1180 can revive bulls hope but the next strong buy signal will appear if mkt cross above the horizontal resistance line. In the meantime, no urgency to go fresh long this week.

FKLI : morning gossip.....1180 in and out

DJ -90, with a pummeling in bank shares and jitters ahead of a Federal Reserve announcement giving investors a reason to retreat. ..CNN

8.20 : DJ futs +4. Regional down almost 1%.

Negative tone will prevails first and..... for the rest of the day ?

Mkt is set to create new week low today. Downside will move to 1175-1180 band if fbm breaks 1180. Otherwise, there is still a chance that the mkt can find support at 1180 on fbm's resilience. .....dragging the mkt uptrend tone for another day.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

MarketWrap : hanging tight...


Profit taking in fbm continues. Fbm fails to impress despite strong regional for the past 2-day. These cause a tight range mkt –toppish but above 7SMA or 1180. So, neutral throughout the day and waiting for the next move higher.

Fkli positive due to large discount yesterday..at par with fbm now
Fkli mostly stuck at 1180-1185, maintaining a higher tone of 1180-1200 range. Chart outlook improve slightly following today’s white candlestick body. The good thing about toppishness scenario is that the longer it stays flat, the greater force for a breakout. Think positive.

Mkt is seen “parking” near 1200 this week for a breakout next week….ideally!


FKLI : morning gossip...1180-1185

DJ -30 ahead Fed's meeting.

8.30 am : DJ futs -12. Regional flat to mixed.

Initial tone is weak but amid the already big discount to Fbm, FKLi is likely to maintain a 1180-1185 range after last mins selling yesterday widened its basis.

As long as Fbm stays above 1180, downside is seen limited and mkt remains upbeat.

Monday, August 10, 2009

MarketWrap: one very small step towards 1200...isit



HS up on China stocks, especially the banks. Ironically, SH tone was negative.

Europe off to a negative start, but no market moving news. Mostly related profit take selling.

Our mkt underperformed and confined to 1180-1190 range in negative tone almost from the onset. Fbm staying power above 1190 in early trades, only lasted about 4 mins. All the way down since. Fkli saw discount widened on selling after 5.00pm, believed to be kwailow "last 15mins" kind of order.

While not impress with mkt sluggish performance, the mkt did stay above 1180. So, mkt is positive and hope for a new trading range of 1180-1200 remains intact.


Sunday, August 09, 2009

Economic data week ahead : US Focus

selected few.....

Tues : Fed policy meeting

Wed : Fed r% decision, statement on economy outlook

Thu : July retail salse ( est +0.3% from June), weekly jobless claims, Wal-Mart Stores ( est +0.86 2Q09 vs +0.86 2Q08)

Market Talk : fear of China's bubble....unfounded ?


There is a lot of talk on China's bubble recently after the Shanghai index gains more 90% this year. But using China previous rally and percentage yearly gain as a yardstick (see above: red line/% represents yearly net change), this "bubble" is just the beginning maybe halfway but not near red alert level yet. Therefore, more space to go upside. so not too worry too much...at least not yet.
Once US economy is seen rebounding, not just recovery, equity mkt can difinitely rise further on growing risk appetite amongst money parking at the sidelines. A good way to judge the return of greater risk appetite is when Yen weakens above 100 per dollar again....carry trade, remember!...is back. Interestingly, the dollar jumps against the yen on Friday to 2-mth high.

Friday, August 07, 2009

MarketWrap : sweet and sour...



Market dragged lower by HS and China, both almost –3%, playing up liquidity issue again or just profits take ahead of US jobs report tonight.

Europe and DJ futs sharply lower after 4.15 pm.

Even though renewing year highs, its not really a “saving the best for last/Friday” case....ummmh.... but strong on weekly basis: a positive week with 1200 still in sight. Fbm remains above 1180 and as long as DJ does not do something stupid tonight, 1180-1200 is immediate trading reach in early next week. And if regional bullish, a breakout to 1200-1240 is the next target next week after 1200.

Otherwise, back to 1160-1180 “sleeping” range.

To the downside, below 7SMA is profit-take sell signal; below 1160 is renewed technical sell.


FKLi :morning gossip...1180-1185

DJ -20, so very cautious ahead of July jobs report tonight.

8.20 : DJ futs -6. Regional flat.

Looks like a quiet day. fkli is seen firm and range bound 1180-1190 on internal technical stregth and bargain buying. Then it will take cue from China and HS.

Thursday, August 06, 2009

MarketWrap : bullish breakout.....finally


Fbm.fkli stage a breakout above 1180 when you least expect it. Dare to dream!. Regional reversed yesterday’s losses, except China, weighed by financial stocks, with mostly positive tone in the afternoon.
Commodity stocks strong today. Crude oil jumps to year-high, above 72.0.

Today’s is a breakout, moving out of the 1-week range neutral range. It would be nice to see 1200 tomorrow... a strong probability... but another breakout seems overdone this week amid its thin turnover for the past few days.
More importantly bulls must protect 1180 support tomorrow…and save the best for next week. !



FKLI : morning gossip....1170-1175

DJ -40, up run ended after two reports on Wednesday showed that the labor market continues to face challenges and that recovery on the employment front will be slow.

8.20 : DJ futs -20. Regional mixed. NK +40, Kos -2

Do not expect a selldown but fbm.fkli are seen at the lower band of 1170-1180 range. No major moves are expected before China opens.

Wednesday, August 05, 2009

MarketWrap : missing 1180..but fkli first white candle in 5


After an encouraging upside tone in the AM, mkt turned totally defensive in the PM, spook by regional weakness on banking stock, concerns over Chinese government to reduce liquidity. Must say holding quite well though. Fkli posted gains due to yesterday’s large discount to fbm…overall weak tone.


Still “a higher high and a higher low” condition, only missing a large white body candlestick to inject more confidence. Hope for a fkli strong closing above 1180 remains a dream. So mkt is considered range bound again,1160-1180 until next development.

But not very comfortable with the mkt toppishness stance… maybe the mkt is saving the best for last….meaning on Friday….then a fresh bull tone next week….


FKLi : morning gossip...1175-1182

DJ +33, ended a choppy session higher Tuesday as a better-than-expected housing market report helped investors extend the recent rally, leaving Wall Street at more than nine-month highs...CNN

8.20 : DJ futs -2. Regional firm, NK +14. Commodities prices are higher.

Another attempt at 1180 ...yes and keeping my fingers cross. Immediate support is raised to 1170.

first, fkli is seen narrowing the dis to fbm but unlikely to move ahead of fbm amid its recent toppishness. fmb have to lead above 1180.

Tuesday, August 04, 2009

MarketWrap : suprisingly toppish...a bad sign ?





Limited-upside for fkli. Fbm did hit new highs. Fkli generally weak when regional strong and soft when regional weak. Strong selling interest…probably profit-take, near1180 in early AM set fkli tone lower. But tight range…. the “narrowest” H-L range since 26/6.

Regional strong start but profit take set in later. HS snaps 3-day rally.

Technically, not much today… ..just missed a breakout. Fkli remains toppish..fbm is looking good. 7SMA support is closing-in with Aug09- another testing time for bulls.


FKLI : morning gossip...1177-1182

DJ +110/+1%, after better-than-expected readings on manufacturing and car sales added to bets that the economy is starting to stabilize...CNN

8.20 : DJ futs -4 Regional up 1%. Commodities sruge.

At 1% rate, the mkt is seen testing 1180++. The mkt will trade at the upper range of 1160-1180 instead of lower one, like yesterday. Mkt may stay here till HS opens...unless fbm can shoot above 1180. ..to justify a strong breakout.

CPO prices should lend a hand to push fbm higher via plantations heavyweight.

Monday, August 03, 2009

MarketWrap : firm but no upside....


Except for a few +ve moment in the early 30 mins or so, mkt mood was generally moody after Fbm experienced speedy descend, like last Friday. Regional strength calmed players. HS at 11-mth high.

Later, strong recovery seen after 4.00 pm on Europe strength this time. But mkt still cautious internally, waiting for DJ to start Aug-mth trading first, maybe. -

Fbm.fkli support at 7SMA again. While toppish at 1160-1180 for the last 5 days already, mkt is read for a breakout of 1180….yeeehahh! amid 1) strong support at lower end and 2) follow through on DJ side….after all last mth was DJ “best July” in 20 years. Of course, this is all talk.

Back to technical, above 1160 is an existing buy, above 1180 is a fresh buy.

Btw, crude oil is back to $70 for the fist time since July 1, after disappearing from the radar last mth, Hopefully it would push energy sector higher FIRST before inflation stories catch the headlines.

FKLI : morning gossip...1170++

DJ +17

8.34 : DJ futs -13. Regional flat to soft.

Fkli is seen firm near 1170++ to start and is seen steady within 1170-1180 first till HS opens.

Sunday, August 02, 2009

Economic data ahead : US focus...

selected few and earnings report coming to an end...

Mon : July auto sales

Tue : June personal income ( -1% mtm) and spending (+0.3% mtm)

Wed : P&G ( est 2Q09 +0.79 vs +0.80 2Q08 ) Cisco Systems ( +0.28 vs +0.40 ). Prudential

Fri : July jobs report ( -333,000 jobs) , July unemployment ( 9.6%)

A quick look : Market ytd performance : %