Friday, December 31, 2010

AT a glance ...BMD 2010 vol....


BMD 2010 vol total appr 6.2 million lot..., up 0.3% from 2009 tks to strong 2nd half. 66% FCPO , 32% FKLI and 1% Klibor.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Fcpo wrap...this week +123...aiming to break 3800



Weak in AM on SO losses but fcpo bulls all fire up in PM after SO reverses early losses. With the underlying bullish tone remains intact, gains prompt more buying especially in the last 15 mins.

A breakout above 3792-3800 is fresh bullish momentum. Technically bullish but expensive if SO does not catch up soon, unless CO > $100. Immediate support is raised to 3750 from 3700.. A breakdown below 3650 next week would void the bullish pattern.

Fkli wrap...this week +5... 30 toppish ...






Wrapping up 2010….no in a grand fashion but toppish with tech pullback mode, especially fbm. But underlying sentiment is likely to remain +ve to bullish in Jan. Today is just year end profit take.

Technically, above 30 is strong breakout signal. Until then, 1510-30 trading band if no push on Mon.

Morning start...fkli firm 1530-32 fcpo soft 3720-30

DJ +9, europe flat. all quiet but firmer tone continues.

8.20 : DJ futs +5. regional flat, mixed. NK lower -0.4% on stronger yen. Kos +0.4%. Commodity also flat. GOLD scaling higher again. CO sustaining aobe 90 and looks set to test 100 in 2011.

fkli : Dec10 expiring today. Near 30-32 first till fbm makes a move above 27, with knee jerk towards40. But fbm seen max at 31-32. fkli is fragile for a pullback if fbm < 24, due to its premium.

fcpo : SO -0.1% looks like 3700-3750 range. weak start would see mkt testing 3700 support. Negative tone if 3760.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Fcpo wrap...pullback mode till regain 3750 again...


Resilient AM but late selling pull fcpo lower, matching SO losses. Failure to regain 3750 in PM triggers profit take sell as players probably gives up for the day, after Mon’s sharp gains. Generally, a quiet day, position adjustment.

Pullback mode towards 3700 bargain lvl if under 3750. A crossing back above 3750 is likely to set the stage for the next big run towards 4000 in Jan.

Fkli wrap...going for record high....


Fbm strong from onset, banking stocks and GENTING, and finds support at 20 after failing to do so yesterday. Therefore, fresh tech bullish. Regional also strong, HS/SH recovery, +1%, from 2-day of losses after China R% hike.

Fkli’s Dec a bit sluggish, mostly near 1525 before climbing back higher after fbm closing. Jan10 more upbeat at 1533. Technically, extending yesterday’s bullish tone and fbm set to test 1530 record again before year end. Support is raised to 20 from 10.

Morning start....fkli soft 1520+24 fcpo soft 3750-70

DJ +20, europe mixed, flat ....same quiet tone

8.30 : Dj futs -3 Regional -0.1%. Commodity mixed. GOLD near record high, +1.3%. CO flat.

fkli : softer due to its premium and not much fresh +ves at mom. 1520-24 if fbm 17-20. -ve bias if < 24 but buy on dips tone near 13-17.

fcpo : SO -0.8% defensive play and risk of a pullback towards 3680 if 3750 breaks. -ve tone if under 3780.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Fcpo wrap....missing 3800 but not yet give up...




A quiet day for fcpo but continues to outperform SO, by 2% this week so far. Bullish tech momentum remains with fcpo above 3750 but lack the fresh drive to push it above 3800, maybe waiting for SO to catch up first after a hefty gains on Mon.

Technically, fresh breakout above recent high, favor for bulls but cautious amid today’s candle. A confirmation if fcpo manages a closing above 3800.

Fkli wrap... action limited to 9.45-10.00 AM ..tech bull


Strong first half of AM session, the rest flat but steady on earlier momentum. Banking stocks jump but regional weak, -1% on financial stocks. Fkli hit record high on buystop domino effect, from 22 to 46. Mostly 25 thereafter.

Above 20 is fresh bullish tone. Next waiting for fbm turn. Internal upbeat mode. Trading range is seen within 10-30 and support is raised to 13 from 10.

Morning start..fkli flat1513 fcpo firm 3770-80

DJ 18, quiet reaction on China R% hike. Europe near -1%. but commodity firmer tone.

8.40 : DJ futs +5. Regional mixed to softer tone. CO -0.5%.

fkli : seen steady, 10-15, but no upside momentum till fbm > 13. Till then, pullback risk is greater especially if fbm < 10.

fcpo : SO +0.5% fcpo seen testing 3800 if above 3750 even though overdone yesterday. Strong support is raised to 3650.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Fcpo wrap....fresh year high.....what!



Fcpo very strong from onset, maybe due to export estimates or CNY play, then SO catches up, making Fcpo even stronger in PM. Technically, strong buying interest after fcpo crosses above 3700 and back to a “2-twin-peak” formation ( 1 twin each in June 2008 and Dec 2010) . A finish above 3800 would confirm a breakout, targeting 4000……. in Jan 2011.
Above 3700 bullish, 3700-3800 this week.

Fkli wrap....cautious but waiting for HS and DJ reaction


A lack of initial -ve reaction towards China rate hike gives mkt some support today. China seems OK with the rate hike in AM with a +1% gains but turns for the worse in PM, to finish -2%. But the rest all quiet in PM, commodity remains steady after a strong start for the week. Europe -1%. HS and DJ yet to react to the news.

Fkli moves in sideways pattern, 10-20, for the last 4 trading days, upbeat but fbm sluggish. Pullback risk if < 15 and lucky to stay above 10.

Morning start...fkli soft 1513-15 fcpo soft 3650+

Eyes on China after 2nd R% hike this year. No major reactions. Regional +ve tone, within +0.5%. DJ futs, -50, and commodity weaker tone, -0.5%. HK clsed for holiday today.

fkli : seen taking neutral to softer tone, 13-15 ahead of fbm. Hard to imagine strong upside today, > 15. but defensive play at 1510.

fcpo : initial reaction to China R% increase. fcpo goes defensive again, testing recent lower band of 3640. looks like 3620-50 range. fresh upside momentum seee if above 3670.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Fcpo wrap....this week +162 ...and still strong


Quiet day….but commodity strong ahead of xmas weekend. US$ weakness. Fcpo supports at 3650 but did not make attempt at 3700. Same pattern like yesterday.

Above 3650, uptrend tone and a breakout of 3670 next week is likely to create a fresh run towards 3700-50.

Fkli wrap...this week +17....aiming higher...



RM very strong…+2% this week. due to thin trades ? R% going up % ? hot money for 2011 ?

Like thu, profit take in the first 2h fbm, same fund maybe. Not much cue to derive from external today…all quiet or closed for xmas.

Strong week, tks to Tue’s big gains as Korea tension “fails to escalate”, reversing the previous week -ve outlook and put fbm.fkli at strong resistance of 1520….favoring bulls.

A closing above 20 is likely to generate mini bull run towards 15-40 next week and a bigger run in early Jan11. Pattern remains if > 1510.

Morning start...fkli firm 1515-17 fcpo firm 3660-3670

DJ +14, makng baby step towards multiple years highs. Europe flat.

8.30 : Regional flat. NK -0.7%, matching Regional Thu's tone. Kos -1%. Only CO moves ,+1% the rest festive mood. Looks like something is boiling with CO., a bull run next year after stagnating for most of this year ?

fkli : firm tone while guessing fbm' s intention today. Upbeat only if fbm > 15, otherwise pullback mode continues. 20-top and 08-bottom scenario.

fcpo : SO +0.4%. fcpo seen sustaning above 3650 but 3700 ?...hopefully. > 3670 is bullish tone.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Fcpo wrap....still going for 3700


Like yesterday, quiet in AM and late buying activities. SO and CO provide a gap-up push but fails to got the distant….misiing the 3700 link. But fpco is bullish if > 3620, targeting a strong finish for 2010, within 3700-3750.

Immediate support is raised to 3650.


Fkli wrap.....taking a break at 20 resistance...



Fbm’s decision to go into profit take mode from get go, kills fkli 1520-party. Early gains but mostly near flat line, just like regional, except HS, Europe and DJ futs. HS +0.5% AM but –0.5% PM, tracking SH -1% in the second half.

Fbm weak but RM at 1-mth high. But then US$ weak across the board

1520 looks toppish this week but mkt is likely to keep its uptrend mode., 1510-20.

Morning start...fki firm 1515-18 fcpo firm 3620-40

All small moves again. DJ +20 at 2-year high, europe mixed, flat. Focus on commodity as CO settles above US$90 for the first time since Oct 2008 on lower stockpiles.

8.25 : DJ futs +1. Regional flat. Kos flat. NK holiday. Commodity +0.5%. Weak US$ to Asian fx.

fkli : strong probability to test 20s. Uptrend tone if > 1514, targeting 22.5. Fbm bullish if > 15 but seen at 10-20 range today.

fcpo : SO +0.5%, enough to push fcpo near 3650 to trigger a technical breakout above 50 ? maybe in 2nd attempt after some tug of war in early trades and if 20 supports holds. Otherwise, stuck in +ve range of 3600-50

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Fcpo wrap....ready for 3700



A very slow, steady but 3600 toppish AM session but momentum picks up in late PM session after fcpo finds support at 3580 and made a visit to 3600 again. This time a breakout and the rest is history.

Fcpo clears all short term resistance mark and is set to test 3700 as the next move. Above 3600 is bullish. Support is raised from 3500 to 3550.

Fkli wrap...looking good for 1520-30 range


All quiet but strong tone as fbm catching up with fkli with support from HS’s gains. Strong RM also. Regional mostly flat, weaker in PM session after a strong run yesterday. Not much from Europe and dj futs, softer tone, near flat line.

Fkli mostly stuck within 10-14 range after building strong premium yesterday but finish near day’s high on fbm strong closing.
Technically bullish after today’s follow through. Strong chance to see 1510-30 for the rest of the year.

Morning start...fkli firm 1510-13 fcpo strong 3580-90

DJ +50, at 2 years high. Europe +1%

8.15 : DJ futs -7. Regional flat. Commodity strong on weaker US$. CO +1%, topping 90 mark. GOLD firm but flat.

fkli : profit take start seen, amid overdone condition yesterday. Likely to wait for fbm first near 1510 and +ve tone, if fbm sustains above 1505. Fkli will turn bullish if fbm>10 as fkli is seen at 15-20 then.

fcpo : SO +1%. incentive for fcpo to test 3600. A crossing above 3600 is fresh bullish tone but a tug of war seen today. A buy mkt if > 3560.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Fcpo wrap....higher but still -ve .till >3600



A calm and quiet day again as attention shifts to equity mkt today. Strong interest after HS opens today.

Recovery tone continues on SO stong gains and equity feel good factors. But profits take pressure still persists. Unlike fkli, fcpo is yet to cross back into +ve zone, looks trap within 3500-3600. Above 3550 is “testing short term resistance” tone.

Fkli wrap...strong reversal signals .....



Fbm.fkli are back into +ve ranges…in a big way too. PLUS gives fbm feel good factor, near 2 fbm points on privatisation talk. At the same time, regional stages strong run, near +2% after many days in sideways mode. No war as the excuse. Europe near +1%. Dj futs +40.

A lot of buying above 1500 today. The start of window dressing ?.
Technically not entirely bullish yet until mkt clears the immediate red line resistance. A first step to ensuring a closing above 1500 for the year. Above 1500 is upeard potential towards 1530s.

Morning start...fkli firm 1493-95 fcpo strong 3540-50

DJ -13, Europe +0.5%, small moves again.

8.30 : DJ futs +4. Regional firmer tone, near +1% as commodity recovers. GOLD and CO flat but firm.

fkli : strong extenal would give 1490 a support, fkli seen stuck in 90s sideways range again.

fcpo : SO +1% back to yesterday high near 3550, targeting 3570s. Upward bias for the day if > 3520.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Fcpo wrap....nsapping a 4-day losing streak...



Fcpo very quiet today, in fact commodity class quiet . SO gains encourage some profit take buy after a 4 day losing streak. Upside limited amid weak technical outlook. No fresh sell signal today.

If bulls are lucky, mkt will sideways this week, 3500-3600, building the foundation for fresh uptrend ….next year. Critical support seen at 3450.

Fkli wrap...new technical weakness...1500 history ?



Generally, AM –ve on SK military drill plan in the afternoon. PM +ve after SK cancels drill due to “winter fog” and NK says it will allow international nuclear inspectors to visit the country. All off lows in PM but still –ve day.

Fbm moves back towards 1500 in PM but jinx by -4p preclosing , dragging fkli from upper 90s to lower 90s in the last 20 mins. A bad start for bulls, despite Fri strong bounce. With 1500 toppish again, mkt is likely to test support andstuck within 1470-1500 for the the rest of 2010.

Morning start...fkli soft 1495-97 fcpo firm 3500+

Not much indications from DJ/europe. All small moves last Fri.

8.30 DJ futs. +2. Regional cautious, softer tone amid SK-US military excercise today as NK says it will retalitate. Kospi -1% NK -0.1%. Commodity flat.

fkli : unlikely to break above 1500, 90s lvls amid fear of -ve development between the two Korea. Upside potential if fbm> 1501.

fcpo : SO +0.1%. enough to keep fcpo above 3500 ?...maybe not. Negative-bias if under 3520, with a risk of a breakdw under 3500 targeting 3450-60.

Friday, December 17, 2010

Fcpo wrap....major sellstops trigger....


A gradual drop, amid weaker SO price, till sellstops trigger under 3520. Freefall towards 3471, recover back to 3520 all in less than 30 seconds. But great damage done.

Technically, from bad to worse for bulls, aiming for 50% pullback around 3420 following a breakdown under 3550. Only a crossing back above 3550 would give bulls some good news.

Fkli wrap...this week -14 ...but ending a 5-day streak


Quiet day. Fbm stabilizing after 4 days of selling activities. Firmer external tone also helping to keep fkli near 1500. Except for the opening selloff, fkli steady within 1490-1500 all day with selling interest at 1500 today.

Strong probability of further bounce after today’s move, towards a +ve bias consolidation band, above 1505, unless fbm trades under 1495 next week. A crossing back above 7SMA would signal a resumption of uptrend

Morning start...fkli firm 1495-97 fcpo weak 3570-80

DJ +40, with two of the three major indexes hitting their highest levels since September 2008. Investors looked on the brighter side of mixed reports on housing and jobs that came out before the opening bell...CNN. Europe +0.2%.

8.30 " DJ futs +1. Regional flat, +0.1%. commodity lower tone but seems quiet, -0.5%.

fkli : rebound or defensive again ? depends on fbm. -ve if fbm <1500, targeting 1490. 1500-07 range if fbm can take out 1500 resistance. fkli bearish today if 93 support breaks.

fcpo : SO -0.5%. fcpo breakdown riks towards 3500 is great if it trades under 3570. only a cross back above 3600 would keep bears at the sidelines.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Fcpo wrap...chart sell..more pullback seen





Fcpo quiet day, thin vol, lower tone amid weak externals both equity and SO. Like fkli , fcpo suffers tech breakdw.
Bearish if under 3600. Next support is 3550, followed by 3450.


Fkli wrap....fbm and tech weakness...




Fbm selling activities continue into fourth day. Both fbm.fkli breach 1500 support, putting a bearish dent on its tech outlook, reinforcing yesterday’s sell tone. Regional weak, HS -1.3% on weaker resources stock, DJ futs. Europe flat.

Technically, short term sell, only a closing above 1505 will void the pattern. Dwside risk is 1480.


Morning start..fkli firm 1505-10 fcpo weak 3650-60

DJ -19, europe -0.3%, small losses compared to Asian yesterday. europe mess asian pain.

8.20 : Dj futs -15. regional softer tone, -0.1%. commodity mixed to lower, pressure by stronger US$. Gold -1% CO +0.5%

fkli : initial recovery mode seen towards 1510. so 1500 seems safe at mom but cautious for the day till fbm > 1512. even so, 1510-15 top.

fcpo : SO -1% . testing support again but looks steady on follow through later following yesterday strong rebound tone, maybe missing a breakout above 3700 unless SO recovers back above 55 mark. 3650-3700 is neutral play.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Fcpo wrap..strong rebound..uptrend remains intact..


Strong rebound after a one-off selling event, where fcpo plunges from 3670 to 3600 in the first 5-mins of PM trading, first reaction to news of Spain debt dwgrade. Commodity reacts to a stronger US$ effect, even Gold despite the re-emergence of Europe debt mess.

Sideways before a late surge again, pushing fcpo back above 7SMA support. Therefore, keeping its uptrend posture, even though looks toppish this week .Below 3700 is dwward-bias. Bulls can take ease if mkt crosses 3720+.

Fkli wrap...PM session selloff ..chart sell



All quiet till a selloff in PM in most asset class, including safe haven Gold after Moody says may dwgrade Spain debt rating. HS clsed -460, slightly off its low of -500. Fbm reverses some losses after the preclosing buybacks. Fkli suffers tech breakdw from 1510 to 00.

Technically., fkli looks like short term sell, as below 1510, targeting the 1490-1510 range. More selling seen if 1500 support breaks.

Morning start...fkli firm 1510-12 fcpo soft 3670-80

DJ +50. strong retail sales, Fed keeps R% at zeron, continuing with its QE2 bond buying plan. Europe +0.4%.

8.10 : DJ futs -7. regional flat. Commodity flat too. US$ firmer.

fkli : looks like another defensive day, unless fbm can break 1512. otherwise fkli is looking under 1510. lucky for bulls is mkt stays 1510-15 range.

fcpo : SO +0.1%. profit take activties seen dominating, targeting 3640-50 range. fcpo needs to keep its head above 3720 to reverse yesterday's effect