Monday, August 29, 2011

Happy Trading !!! Sayonara.

Fkli wrap( final)....more upside... testing resistance first....

Finally, some upward correction for a lack of selling in CIMB ( done with ?) ( selling due to bad NPL ? ) Fbm strong but slow climb, back by bullish externals, +1% to +2%. However, fbm dips almost 7p in the last 15 mins of trading, probably on force-selling activities.

It looks like 40-60 bounce-tone market first, testing dwtrend resistance lvl. No major selling signal if market remains above 30. Can the mkt reverse it dwtrend outlook, <1460, in Sep ? If 1430 breaks, 1400 is an easy target.

Fcpo wrap (final) .....a mild relief of bulls but dwward-bias continues

No party for bears as strong grains on dry weather concerns push fcpo back above 3000 psychological mark.

Trend remains in favor of bears but no major fresh bearish signal if fcpo stays above 2900.

Friday, August 26, 2011

Fcpo wrap (2nd last edition)....going to test 2900 support

Quiet day for commodity ahead of Fed meeting with fresh stimulus in the pipeline.

Fcpo downtrend tone continues and seen heading towards 2900 first to find for a bottom. And failure to defend 2900 would create fresh selling pressure towards 2800-2850 range. Negative till Fcpo regains 3000.

Fkli wrap (2nd last edition) mercy...near year low....

Bearish tone continues, no respite as selling in CIMB and AXIATA continue regardless of external conditions. Regional mixed tone, near flat, EU near -0.5%. DJfuts mostly positive at +20, off high +50 ahead of Ben meeting this weekend.

Tech cut loss, remains bearish and look eager to retest year low 1427, before any significant rebound. A break dw below the ascending triangle band will trigger fresh round of selling but seen bottoming out at 1400 for short term bounce. Upside target is lowered to 1460

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Fcpo wrap...setting the stage for bearish run in Sep

Bears goes into assault mode in PM after 3020 support breaks. Fcpo is ready for 2900 in the next two days, 2900-3000 lower ranges. But unlikely to create major breakdw moves before Raya.

Alternating between –ve and +ve bias lately but lacking the necessary follow through., therefore keeping mkt in sideways range for the past few weeks. Further weakness tomorrow could set the pace towards 2900 and a fresh leg dw towards 2800 in Sep

Fkli wrap...bearish follow through..thanks to CIMB

CIMB and AXIATA…whatsup… heavy selling pressure after strong quaterly result. Tougher environment ahead ?, Raya sales ?, election funding ? Fundamental +ve, technically bearish.

Going against regional trend, fbm tumbles on selling pressure in PM, like yesterday. Regional near +1.5%. EU +0.5% Djf +30

Tech bearishness widens, with upside seen limited near 1480 and dwside risk towards 40 for the remaining Aug . Recent failed attempts to cross back above 1500 seem to indicate bearish tone in Sep, targeting 1400.

75% of Fkli vol from roll activities,

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Fcpo wrap....boring and clueless.....

A very ranging and quiet day. No upside follow through amid weaker external front and fcpo conveniently stuck in a neutral range. It remains upward bias, above 7SMA and 2-week uptrend line.

A breakout above 3080 could initiate a fresh upward move towards 3150. Above 3000 is upward bias tone this week

Fkli wrap.. bearish PM..cutloss selling

Both fbm.fkli drop 20p in PM alone. Steady Djfut and EU in late Asian hours fail to inspire bounce. CIMB AXIATA and MISC the main culprits….cashing out ahead of Hari Raya ? HS also a major drag in PM, from -160 in AM to -420 for the day. Insurance companies weak on poorer result

Technically, fbm.fkli is back in bearish zone, a quick reversal from yesterday’s positive outlook. Further weakness tomorrow could set fresh dw trend towards 1420-30 and bye bye to 1500 in Aug.

Below 1470 is bearish .

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Fcpo wrap....breakout above 3080 this week ?

Back to recent upper range on follow through momentum after crossing back above 3000 yesterday. Commodity takes +ve tone on talk of China buying this week.

Attempting a breakout higher above 3080 again. Bullish if above 3040, targeting 1-mth high sideways range of 3080-3180.

Fkli wrap... heading for 1500....

China manufacturing data in Aug, better than July, helps to lift equity sentiment and sparks bargain buying, with resources stocks leading the pack. +1.5% to +2% are the norms, with strong gains in PM after a cautious AM. EU +1.5%. DJfuts +150.

This raises the chance for more tech bounce as mkts seen bottoming out in the short term after today’s actions and ahead of Ben’s statement on Fri.,QE3 ??.

Fbm.fkli looking good to test 1510-20, before Hari Raya breaks. No major fresh sell signal for the rest of the mth if above 1470 and bullish if above 1480

Monday, August 22, 2011

Fcpo for bulls...

Fcpo regains back above 3000 on stronger commodity tone across the board. A gap up opening helps to alleviate fears of a move towards 2900 and set the tone higher today in a quiet and tight range day.

But market has yet to offset recent –ve tone as fcpo continues in sideways tone. A closing above 3050 would chase away last week’s dark cloud. While fresh bears seen under 2990.

Fkli fresh sell signal but fbm not so lucky

Fbm bearish all day but regional produces clueless swing with early gains near +1% but turn cautious and dips to -1% ahead of lunch break. While a weaker start in PM, to -2%, mkts bounce sharply in late Asian hours following EU +1.5% and Djfuts +80.

Fbm off lows but remains deep in red due to –ve newspaper report over the weekend ? but fkli carry forward premium stance amid +ve externals.

Technically, fkli remains above breakdw lvl but not so with fbm. Unless fbm recovers back above 1480, fkli is in danger of following fbm shadow, targeting 30-80 trading range.

Friday, August 19, 2011

Fcpo wrap.. the calm"est" of all... -ve tone but no big trend

Agri product remains calm, in negative bias tone amid external conditions. Safe haven commodity like GOLD, +4% heading towards $2000 mark. But speculative products like CO,tumbles -7%.

Fcpo ventures back to –ve zone again but not yet bearish as it remains above 2900. Dwward bias if under 3020. A breakdw below 2900 could see a big dw trend move towards 2750+.

Fkli wrap...breakdw fear towards 1430 next week...

Regional extend losses in PM after EU runs red again, -2%. Djfuts dips towards -200 from -100 in AM, KOS -6% as car exporters hit hard on fear of US slowdown. HS -3%. SH only -1% despite DB dwgrading China eco growth outlook.

Fbm.fkli also suffer tech selling pressure, following a gap dw opening below 7SMA. A weak Mon , a violation of the upper horizontal line, would see a lower trading of 1430-1480. Both finish the week with dwward bias despite spending most of the week testing resistance mark.