At a glance..Asian mkts & FCPO % chg in Jan10

Fcpo wrap: still range play...-8% in Jan

-within Thu's range, firm despite soyoil losses thanks to a bounce in the equity mkt.

-still a two-way, equal fight between two camps. already into 6 days but no clear winner yet. But the fact that 2400 remains as support this week is a good news for bulls...as it could point to a consolidation mode if mkt recovers 2450 next week.

-sell on weakness below 2400 is recommeded.

Fkli wrap...Fri's strong bounce but still -3% weekly

-weekend short covering and Europe gains push prices sharply off their lows and finished near intra-day high. Regional ended within 1 to 2% lower on technology. Europe near 1% in late Asian hours while DJ reverse early losses at +7.

-this time the mkt manage to rebound after another scare in early PM session. A bit of feeling that a rebound is in the card if above 1256. Again, to reverse some of recent bearishness, Feb10 must at least cross back above 7SMA or 80++, also the minimum upside target for rebound mode. Otherwise, the trend is bearish.

-below 1256, strong sell as this would put technically put the mkt below long term support of 100SMA ( 1256.6).

Morning Gossip....fkli bears at 60++ fcpo negative RM20-30

DJ -115/-1%,with techs falling after cautious outlooks from Qualcomm and Motorola. Ongoing worries about the labor market also gave investors a reason to retreat..CNN

8.20 : DJ futs -10. Regional -1.5%..NK -145 Kos -30. Commodities softer tone...-0.5%


Fkli- will move back towards 60 with strong potential of another leg down toward 53++, if fbm breaks 60. Below 65. is a sell mkt.

Fcpo - with SO -1%, it looks like Apr will continue to stuck wihint 2400-2450 range but favor bears today. ...towards the lower end. Given SO price now, 2400 should remains as a support with Apr calling to open near 2430, about 20 t0 30 lower

Fcpo wrap...bears turn to feel cautious....

-neutral in AM but strong in PM –encouraged by soyoil recovery, from earlier -1% to flat, as commodities take comfort from equity spillover effect.

-technical buying above 2450 creates a quick push towards 2475, 14-SMA, after taking out 7SMA resistance. But gains were short-lived, satisfy with gains near 2450.

-from lower ranges to upper ranges ….but same range for the past 3 days or so…not much game changing event. Both bulls and bears are fighting –even fight so far. Just who has better luck with externals help?

Fkli wrap..bears taking a day off..fkli profit take buy

-fbm shows no life yet despite a rebound in most mkt., HS +300, SH +7, therefore limits Fkli upside. Fkli stuck within the mid point of 60-70 firmer range. Fbm extends a “5-day –44p-black candle” losing streak.

-DJ futs +40, Europe +1% reversing yesterday losses.

-today’s main show is fkli manages above 60. A good news for bulls but mkt yet to test bears serious resistance lvl…like 7SMA. ( 1286) It’s a guessing game of bears next action…after the mkt has fallen so much, so fast

-generally if above 60, it a “long” market, bouncing towards at least 1276+, 1/3 adjustment lvl. Below 1260, immediate trading sell towards 1250++

Morning gossip...fkli firmer fcpo negative

DJ +40 after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. Stocks churned before and after the Fed statement, with gains in technology, telecom and financial stocks tempered by weakness in industrials and commodities...CNN

8.15 : DJ futs +14. Regional +0.5%. Commodities weaker tone, like 1%.

Fkli - recovery tone within 60-70 range. Above 60, no strong sell signal today. But again, can the mkt sustain a recovery ?

Fcpo - commodities lower across the board. SO -1%. This would bring Apr10 back to 2400++. Immediate resistance is lowered to 2430 from 2450. And downward risk is expanded towards 2370+.

Fcpo wrap..boring...manage to hold above 2400

-fcpo mostly moved within a neutral band, Survived a technical attempt at 2400
on buybacks, thanks to soyoil firmer tone throughout the day. While vol remains strong mostly range-bund play with “+ve soyoil vs. –ve equity” tone.- so quite boring actually

-so no major breakthrough today technically speaking. a wait-n-see attitude. But remains downward-bias, because below 2450, just missing a bearish closing below 2400 today.

Fkli wrap: never ending selling ....minus y-o-y..the first time

-.sentiment is terrible…not only the mkt met with sell-on-rebound, sell-on-weakness took centre stage again in PM. No thanks to HS “u” turn, then Europe provide further punch with -1% actions. DJ futs gave up after 4pm, 30. No fresh news – just “resumption” –banks and commodities stocks were the biggest casualties

-while many are aiming for bargain after a 4-day-40-points slide, do take note that technically, it remains a strong sell mkt , bears are aiming at mid Dec09 lows near 1250++, about the same as 100SMA (1254) before taking a pause.

-rather buy on strength…immediate resistance is lowered to 65-70. Below this range, long is a huge risk to take.

Morning gossip.. fkli weak fcpo firm

DJ -2 off highs on sell on reobund tone. Europe ends losing streak, near +0.5%

8.20 : Dj futs +10 on Yahoo result. Regional flat, still cautious. NK +9. Kos -9. Commodities firmer within +0.5%.

Fkli - with DJ small gains, fkli may avoid a selloff but Q is how well can the mkt sustain a rebound. Jan may stuck within 78-82 first. A breached below 78 is strong intra-day sell signal. Above 1282 is safe zone for bull.

Fcpo - SO +1%. This could help Apr 10to float above 2400 in the initial trades. B ut dw risk remains for the day.

Fcpo wrap . bulls giving up hope...2400 going going...

-attempt to stay within 2450-2470 failed as selling re-emerged in the PM session . Why? well its almost impossible to stay positive amid the sell off in the stocks mkt.

-2400 support is again in danger after 3-day of bounce that failed to generate into positive mode amid soyoil softer tone and stocks factors. A breach of 2400 would bring fresh selling interest, targeting 2330++, the major target and support for recent selldw from 2700s.

-below immediate resistance of 2450-2460 is bearish. The question now is : an extension of a leg down or continue to consolidate. The former but has to be this week before 7SMA resistance getting to near.

Fkli wrap..very brutal...biggest single day loss since 17 Aug

-instead of follow through after a hopeful Mon, mkt tripped and fell flat. Selling started from 11.00 pm with HS ( -500/2.5%) and China (-75/2.5%) starting the selling mode with saw even more selling in the PM. Banks took big hit. Excuse : Chinese bank freeze lending this mth, the remaining days

-regional -2.5%. Europe -0.8%, down fifth straight day. DJ futs -45 off lows of -80, probably the only positive sign today.

-fkli is a bear mkt for now after a sudden big drop –meaning sell on bounce kind of thing. Below 1282 is bearish, targeting 100 SMA support, 1255++ or 2009’s closing of 1266.5. Immediate resistance is lowered to 1290 from 1300.

Morning gossip...fkli firm fcpo semi-bearish!

DJ +20, recovery road but weaker housing sales limit upside. Europe -1% offsetting Fri's stronger thanDJ performance.

8.25 : DJ futs +10 , Apple strong result. Regional flat, NK +20. Kos-3 on 2% 4Q GDP growth. Commodities look quiet and soft tone. CO +1% SO -1%. Gold -0.5%

Fkli - Dj not strong enougth to push fkli near 1300. Firmer range maybe, 92-97, mostly near 95 again. Above 92, is a buy mkt.

Fcpo - same idea like yest, testing support 2450++. Probably weaker than yesterday. Below 2447, target is 2400. Soyoil -1%. Fcpo upside seems limited with FCPO "premium" over soyoil - $93, avg $103 so far this year.

FCPO wrap : all quiet..range bound ..boring

-not much today..most within 60++

-attempts to break into a "more positive" zone fail again..cantious amid external factors.

-technically is neutral but slightly upward-bias if above 2450 but it needs to break 2500 to convincing.

Fkli wrap : ..steady..ready for bounce...

-fbmfkli hold well but upside was unsurprisingly limited. Mkt continues to feel the heat from Obamanic. While regional adn Europe in bad mood, losses only at -0.5%. All eyes on DJ futs. Luckily, DJ futs is trading +60 , this triggers fkli short covering. Late recovery.

- Mkt is in “getting ready for bounce” mode but unless fkli can regain above 1300, a trading range of 1290-1300 is negative bias.

-on the sidelines, US economic data…interest rate decision and new home sales on Wed, 4Q GDP on Friday

Morning gossip..fkli weak 1290++, fcpo weak

DJ -200/-2% Fri still feeling the impact of Obama and China since last wed.

8.30 Dj futs +40 Regional near- 1%. Speculative-bias commodity down 1 to 2%..Gold -15 Co -2%. Grains -0.5%

Fkli - bad day continues..this time may pause near 1288++ first with fbm dwside seen limited near 1290. If bulls are lucky, the mkt will still trade within 95-00 range. Hopefully with Dj futs +40 would limit the losses wihitn 0.5% to 1% on idea of seeing DJ bounce.

Fcpo - while SO just flat to -0.2%, is a dw-bias mkt, below 2470, amid external mood. Apr is seen taking 2440-2470, RM10-20 lower, first

Fcpo wrap ..down RM16 this week.still a sell

-fcpo very boring day, stuck in a small range and negative bias amid outside bearish environment, hampering bulls hope to crossover 7SMA after yesterday’s strong bounce. Bears did not do much damage either, Apr stuck within 2450-2490 neutral range.

-short covering this week prevented a break below 2400 as the market has already fallen like 10% so far this mth. Yet, the mkt fails to create positive technical signals –at least above 7SMA. – to entice bulls into a consolidation mode.

-trend wise very much a bear mkt…maybe slow slide with profit take in between and eventually target 2330++ by end of Feb.

Fkli wrap : @#$%...only consolation..fbm >1300

-after a disastrous AM, mkts in recovery mode in PM, with HS leading the pack, from -600 to -150. SH clsd -1% from -2% lows. Given such external force, fbm.fkli were strong follower but manage to keep losses within 1%. Europe starts soft, -0.5% but DJ futs +20.

-a bad way to end the week…. fingers pointing to China’s call to curtain lending since Thu..negative on financials and commodities. But the cake goes to Obama with its new regulatory plan for big banks – negative on financials as it will limit banks activities and dilute banks profits

-external factors dashed fkli hope to a bullish closing, above 1300 after today’s sharp reversal despite a firm/strong tone from Mon to Thu. While not calling a bear yet, above 1280, bulls are back to square one…and will have to work hard again while bears feeling more energetic.

- 1290-1300 breakout strategy looks a good bet. Below 7SMA is a negative-bias with major support at 1280+. Bulls will wake up strong is above 1300.

Morniing gossip..fkli negative, fcpo soft

DJ -200, after the Obama administration announced a proposal to increase regulation of the nation's biggest financial firms, plus China's move to limit lending since Thu.

8.30 : DJ futs -9. Regional 1% to 2% lower. NK -200 Kos -23. Dollar strong, commodities weak, mostly near -0.5% but CO -2%

Fkli -another test. can fbm fend off DJ losses like yesterday? Probably not, with profit take selling ahead of the weekend too. Fbm is seen returning back towards 1300. Hope for fkli to stay above 1300 is still alive. ..hoping for late bounce after early selloff.

Fcpo - soyoil near -0.5% adn external factors will hamper bulls effort to regain 2500 psycholigical lvl. Apr is seen traading 2450-2490 range.

Fcpo wrap: strong bounce ....short covering

-fcpo reversed losses in PM on the back of firmer soyoil. This caused Apr to take 2450-2500 range again as profit take buying set in. Earlier, the mkt found support near 2400++.

-is the mkt into consolidating mode after tested 2400 ? Not yet unless it can cross back above 7SMA .

Fkli wrap : slow and steady..keeping +ve posture

-fbm’s morning strength came as a surprise, on follow through despite DJ -1% drop. Financial stock and Axiata were the main force. Fkli upside however was hampered by HS -400 in the afternoon on China policy concerns. But SH +7.

-except HS, regional turned +ve in PM session, followed by Europe +0.5% in early trading. DJ futs flat…no clear sign on things to come tonight

-while supported, fkli remains cautious and yet to really distant itself from 1300 despite fbm strong effort. Not to mention the thin vol. looking good to stay above 1300 for the week, then more upside next week.

Morning gossip...fkli weak 1298-1300, fcpo bearish 2400-2450

DJ -122/-1% Europe near -2%, a strong dollar and questions about China's lending practices slammed commodities, one of the leaders of the recent rally. ..CNN.

8.25 : DJ futs +10. Regional near -0.5%. NK -60. Kos -11. Dollar strong against Euro, +1%. RM 3.3700/-0.2% Comodities 1% to 2 % lower.


Fkli - will probably trade near 1300.., as fbm dwside can be limited near 1300 too, which represents -0.5%. Forget about upside first until HS opens. A defensive play for the start but expect to hold well...near 1298++. 1298-1302 range or 1296-1300 range ??

Fcpo - soyoil extends losses -1.5%, crude oil gives back gains, -1%. Looks like a new lower trading range of 2400-2450 today. Apr is seen opening minus RM20.

FCPO wrap : bulls in shaky position agian...

-selling pressure continued throughout the day after bad start on soyoil losses. This encouraged recent bearish tone to set in, exaggerating losses. Generally quiet and tight range trading about RM30 high/low as mkt still in familiar ranges. While losses were a bit overdone, buyers, like kwailow despite weakening ringgit, stays sidelines.

-from resistance lvl back to critical support vicinity…near 2439++. A breakdown coming ? Below 2439, is big sell signal tomorrow..targeting 2400. Resistance is lowered towards 2480-2490 ranges. Below this lvl, don’t do position buy just yet

FBMFKLI: at a glance...

Fkli wrap : go fly, Fbm....fkli playing catching up..what?

-fbm.fkli very strong despite selloff in HS and SH. Fbm did a bullish closing above 1305, the 9-mth peak. Axiata breakout above 3.20, up almost 7%

-regional mixed. HS (-400/-2%) tumble, no thanks to its big brother China.( -100/-3%) News of Chinese bank tightening policy pops up again. Europe and DJ futs cautious within -0.5%

-bad timing for fkli. External vs Fbm factors keep fkli swinging back and forth in the PM. Finally, taking the mid range of 00-05. Discount to fbm for the first time this year.

-technically, like yest, fkli candle on its own are not impressive but overall bullish stance remains…no event chaging moment. For a change, fkli can ride on fbm strong to bullish outlook.

Morning gossip ...fkli bullish, fcpo negative

DJ +120 with IBM leading a tech charge ahead of its quarterly results, released after the close of trade. A variety of health care and consumer product companies also added to the run, as investors sought to restart the run...CNN

8.30 : DJ futs -12. Regional near +0.5%, Dollar strong but CO and Gold also strong. Agri lower

FKLI - DJ strong bounce is what the mkt needs...in line with internal sentiment. Good chance to take on a new trading band of 05-10. Fbm must not dissapoint today, like going under 1300. Fbm seen near 1305.

FCPO - SO is trading lower by almost 1% at time of writing. Apr10 is seen opening around 2470++ and probably give 2500 a miss and stuck in negative zone, within 2450-2490.

FCPO wrap: mini bulls face off with 2500..no luck today

-bulls effort fail to pay off as handsomely as yesterday after coming to significant short term resistance lvl. The mkt spent most of day trying to figure out 2500. But came late selling activities. .. maybe retail buyers profit take selling already. Kwailow may not be this aggressive at these lvls.

-because the mkt is still above 2450, its too early for bears encore. Plus bulls will not give up just yet with Apr10 still at the high end of 2450-2500’s “bears-sidelines“ range.

-generally, below 7SMA is bearish with next sell off if 2450++ breaks. If mkts recovers 7SMA, it could be a boring range trading within 2450-2550+ for some time. So i wish for the former.

FKLI wrap : candle like this? consolation..fbm >1300

-a very quiet day for a lack of DJ stimulus… not much today, playing safe mostly. While fkli finished at its low, it was encouraging to see fbm play catching up with a closing above 1300.

-regional mixed, off to a shaky start but HS, +220, powered back strongly in late trading. Europe/DJ futs not so healthy, -0.5% in late Asian hours.

-not an encouraging candlestick but overall outlook remains the same..but in need of some external push. While yet to give up to the upside, cautious if mkt trades below 1304.5.

Morning gossip...fkli brekaout, fcpo firm

DJ holiday. Europe +0.7%

8.30 am:DJ futs -1. NK -10.Kos +10. Commodities recovery mode, about +0.5%.

FKLI - time to breakfree from 1300? maybe to soon but first expect fbm to crawl above 1300, targeting 1305++ if today is a bullish day. fkli seen steady 1300-1305. Immediate support for fbm and fkli is raised to 95 from 90.

FCPO - SO and CO gains of 0.5% will provide some follow through buying. Apr10 seeen at 2500-2500 range and test short term resistance lvl. Can the mkt recapture 7SMA ?
Above 2490 is intra-day buy.

FCPO wrap : strong bounce but dead cat range..2450-2530

-fcpo finished off it lows on profit take buying in PM amid a lack of fresh externals. CO also reduced it losses to -1% from near -2%

-today effort has yet to change the mkt bearishness. It could still be a dead cat bounce scenario, if its stuck below 2500 or 7SMA.

-below 2450 is the next big sell signals. Below 7SMA is sell mkt.

FKLI wrap : manage to keep bullish outlook

-despite DJ overnight losses and weaker regional, fbm.fkli maintains positive posture after fending off early selling pressure. Internal strength provided support.

-while mostly lower, regional losses were limited to DJ effect and occasionally bargains buying. With DJ holiday tonight, eyes on Europe. For start, Europe flat to +0.5%

-technical outlook remains strong – above 7SMA despite DJ triple digit losses. Just missing the anticipated follow through today. Bulls are waiting for the right time …polishing horns at mom!

Hi Zac... FYI