Where is the mkt heading…my bet is bullish 1Q10

While there is a lot of cautiousness in the air, this was mainly due to the fact that we did not expect 2009 to be such a strong comeback year. But the fact remains, economic data did recover…like US housing and consumer data and activities yet not reach “overheating/bubble” concerns…with commodity prices still off their historical highs. Lehman was the “game changing” event. What is the next “game-changing” event…the bond mkt..i do not know. In the meantime, the bet is for more recovery.


Data to watch…1) Fed action when and if it raises interest rate > $ up > dw risk “reverse carry trade:” and pressure on commodity price. 2) US 10y bond price > if above 100 > negative signal > money shifts from equity to bond. 3) Anwar sodomy case…beginning Jan 25 > dw risk > political instability.


Technically, most mkts are still in an uptrend trajectory if not, range-but-upward-bias mode from a long term view. In short, more room for upside FIRST (see below) before and if, George Soros is correct about its “double bottom” theory

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