At a glance : Asian Equity perfomance in Nov09

Mkt/2008/2009/Nov09

MarketWrap : extending trading sell mkt....

Just I thought the mkt will discount last Fri’s selloff, fbm surprised the mkt with a big drop, almost 20p. Lesson 1 - big sell orders remains valid till the next biz day. (kwailow hedge fund style). Fbm also suffered a 6 points in the preclosing stage on YTL...i think.

Fbm first 5-min-meltdown caused fkli panic selling and later caused fkli panic buying too as fbm jump back vigorously as regional bounce back.

Both mkt fbm.fkli-dec are now below the 30days SMA- a significant support for a pullback in the recent bull run. So the risk of seeing 1230++ is great.

A cross above 30 SMA will stabilise the mkt and a cross above 7SMA is a strong buy signal in Dec, targeting the recent high again if not 1300. Till then, pullback towards 1230++ remains. Immedidate trading buy signal is when dec trades above 1260.

Fbm are indicating 50-70 range in the coming days.

US data week ahead ...

Strong sales recorded on the start of holiday shopping period....based on report over the weekend...could reduce the "dubai shock" effect next week. Next week, players will trad ein anticipation of Fri's important umployment data. ...under 10% is great news that could spark year-end run mood.

Tues : housing data
Thu : weekly jobless claims
Fri : Nov employment data ( -114k jobs ), unemployment (10.2% )

A relief that Fri was holiday...

Dubai debt pblm sent shock waves to Fri's Asian trading...HS and Korea tumbled almost 5%. Generally mkts and commodities were dw from 2% to 5% on Fri.

However, fkli.fbm are likely to survive better...as DJ only dipped 1.5% while Europe actually closed 1% higher on Fri. These are likely to soothe Mon's sentiment. Still, the fkli.fbm is expected to take a 5-10 points drop first on Mon. Instead, technical weakness could exert more pressure.

The mkt is pricing in a Dubai's default, the first goverment-link bond default since Argentina in 2001. It will increase mkt volatility in the coming days on financial stocks but unlikely to reverse mkt direction in the long run.

I dont think UAE will "allow" it to go under. ..plus US60b is "small" compared to the cost of credit crisis. ..plus UAE is oil rich.. repayment should not be a plbm in the long run.

MarketWrap: getting worse for bulls..

Regional turn sour as bank having bad day, “Chinese banks continued for a third day on persistent fears they may need to raise funds to meet potential tougher regulatory requirements. Chinese leaders set to meet in the next few weeks to decide on next year's economic blueprint. (MW) Hang Seng follows suit, -2%.

Mkt saw late selling as Europe –2% and DJ futs –100p proved too much pressure after having already to support weak regional tone in PM session. Banks and miners tumbles.

Technical weakness cause selling in late PM. Nov better off than Dec due to Mon’s expiry with fbmklci still at 70. Sentiment will turn short term sell if Dec09 does not recover when Nov09 expire on Mon as dec09 is below 30SMA ( the far right candle)

Buystop is lowered to 70 for Dec09.

FKLI : morning gossip....70-73

DJ +30, mild gains before Thanksgiving holiday tonight.


8.30 : DJ futs -2. NK and Kos near +0.5%. Mkts are pricing in strong commodities price again. CO near year high, SO year high, Gold record high.

Fkli will return to 70s. If we r lucky maybe we will see the mkt touching the higher band of 70-75 range. But given fbmklci sluggish, keeping my fingers cross.

Still, strong commodites will limit dwside potential. So focus is buy if above 68. 68-73 is range trading.

MarketWrap : tug of 1270-war continues...

Month end syndrome, school holiday syndrome ? Very quiet. Fkli saw 7 consecutive black candle but still alive near 70 - maybe it has 9 life!

Very underperform today given external strength. Did not really challenge resistance. 70 in and out. External gains on strong commodity after US$ slide to mth-lows against major currencies. Fbmklci failed to provide leads.

Minus the rolls, ttl outright vols about 1300. Surprisingly not many long rolls, kwailow closing book for year end?

Technically, no changes, negative zone but did not get worse. Buystop remains above 74 ( 70 for Dec) A strong buy if fbm above 75.

MarketWrap : nearing support level....bounce soon?

Fkli finished below 70 for the first time in 8-day. Still a trading sell mkt, ( red zone) Bulls are facing the danger of a mkt breakdown below 60. However, i think 60 looks good as a support as mkt is deemed in a range bound play. The real question is can the mkt bounce back in Dec.

To be sure, below 70 is a follow through sell mkt. Major fresh intra-day sell is when 60 breaches but a quick one as fbm is likely to be support at 60 if 70 breaks.

Buystop is lowered to 74 from 77.

MarketWrap : not much.. negativity remains...

Negative tone remains despite regional upbeat tone. Upside lack on weak fbmklci. fbmkli weak in PM as commodities stocks retreat after a sluggish AM session.

Quiet, about 800 lots traded in PM session ( Nov contract, outright)

70-75 stay out. It looks like a breakout play, like buy above 75. Trading sell if 70 breaks or if fbmkli dips below 70. Cannot aim far this week, target is seen limited within 60-85, either direction still a 50:50

Position buystop is lowered again to 77 from 80 on closing basis.

FKLI : wow so quiet..

..fkli waiting for direction., still in -ve zone 70-75. Given regional momentum, could have been better...probably hang over from last week'e bad breath. Maybe late buying will emerge later...?


US economic data this holiday-shortened week :

Mon : Oct exsiting home sales
Tues : revision of 3Q GDP from 3.5% earlier to 3% est
Wed : Oct personal income and spending, weekly unemployemyn claims
Thu : Thanksgiving holiday
Fri : 1/2 day

MarketWrap : negative to carry forward..

While off lows, the mkt did make any progress in reversing its recent negative tone after a 80-top. Prices either clinging at support lvl or stuck in a neutral, if not, negative territory. Looks like range trading next week, on negative tone first.

The mkt is still in a negative consolidation mode, a trading sell if below 70 again but rather wait for the next uptrend as mkt dwside is seen limited near 60 and expecting strong Dec ( 1300-1320)

Eager to go long…buystop is lowered to 80 from 82.

Forward Dec09 is seen higher than Nov09 next week as roll begins…long rolls ( sell Nov buy Dec) expected to be the dominant force.

FBMKLCI : members weightage..as at 20/11/2009

Maxis takes no. 10 spot, lower than many had expected, due to its low free float %, about 30% compare to CIMB/PB 100%)

The last column says : the impact on index point if the respective stock move by RM0.10.

FKLI : morning gossip....68++

DJ -90/-1% as concerns about the economic recovery resurfaced, the dollar strengthened and the outlook for the technology sector darkened. .CNN

8.30 ; DJ futs -20. NK -0.8%. Kospi -0.2%. Comodities lower.

FKLi is set to do 65-70 range with risk of knee jerk towards 60 if fbm breaks 70. fbm is likely to find suppport around 68.

Below 70, intra-day sell mkt.

MarketWrap : trading sell mkt..60-70 tomorrow?

Despite weak external, fbm downside was limited by strong commodities. Financials weak. Overall subdue, focus on Maxis ( 5.42/+8%).

Fkli not so lucky…no commodity to support…..hitting psychological support of 70 as sentiment was technically negative after it breached 7SMA. Dwside risk towards 60 growing… the only good news is fbm still above 75/7SMA and premium to fkli.

FKLi intra day resistance for trading is lowered to 78 from 80.

Well, unless the mkt can do wonders tomorrow, meaning a closing above 82, we r probably looking at 60-90 boring range for the remaining Nov. Below 70, a trading sell.

Next position-buy is “82 stop on closing.”

FKLI : trading sell coming soon ?

Yes, if mkt weakness continues tomorrow, below 7SMA or the uptrend line.

After 2-day of toppishness and with the mkt nearing break-or-consolidate junction, I wonder whether we r looking at 60-90 range for the rest of this month before another attempts in Dec.

Still keeping my fingers cross for another day or two, generally below 80 is negative-bias mkt.

Sell stops is raised to 74 from 70. Generally, buy signal is when mkt regains 80. Below 7SMA, even 70 does not look like good bargain anymore as the mkt is deemed entering pullback mode.

FKLI : damn...below expectations

The first sign of bad vibe was fkli failing to top 86 even when fbm hitting 88. Intra-day technical weakness followed plus regional also experienced profit take selling

Chart outlook remains the same, bullish but breakout potential is put to hold tomorrow. Objective is to finish at upper 80s, awaiting AK's Maxis feel good factor on Thu. 7SMA or the uptrend line should continue to provoide support for dwside tomorrow.

Fresh intra-day buy signal is above 80. If below wait at support lvl to long.

FKLI : technically bullish...above 80

Mkt is likely to stay firm, meaning triangle zone, if no further fresh bullish breakout 86.5. For Tues's trading, above 80 is a strong buy. Seller should probably take a day off first as Mon's action reinforces 1300 outlook.

In terms on relationship, fbm above 73 = fkli near 80 Fbm above 80 = fkli 85-90

Short term long's stop is raised again to 70 from 60.

FKLI : bedtime story...zzzzz1z3z00

Reaching for 1300 this week ?? after a strong closing Fri's that saw kwailow buying..

Bring forward +ve momentum and one step at a time, 1280 is the target Mon. In general, anticipating bullish trading range of 1270-1300 first till -ve developement exists. So above 70, no hurry for initiate sell, let the mkt run first.

Short term long's stop is raised to 1260.

Mon,Tue.Wed -cuti

US economic data week ahead...

After 2-week of gains, the next leg will count on consumer speading data on early Monday ( Oct retail sales +0.9% est ) A positive data would indicates consume may be more willing to splurge this holiday season.

Others major data > housing data on Wed and Thu's weekly jobless claims

MarketWrap : +1% week..with more upside next week

Fkli higher on short covering and lack of sellers ahead of the weekend amid positive external . The market managed to finish the week on strong note despite early selling pressure. Now the mkt can refocus on 1300 instead on worrying of an immediate technical breakdown below the uptrend line next week.

Positive but a bullish mkt yet without a closing above 1280. But the odds are getting better after today’s closing that saw the mkt rebounded from 7SMA support plus feel good Maxis factor next week. To the downside, a loss towards 60 is considered healthy.

FKLI : morning gossip....65-70

DJ -90, ending a 6-day winning streak.

8.35 : DJ futs -6. REgional -0.5 to -1%

A bad start again unless fbm can utilise yesterday momentum but unlikely until positive signal emerges from regional. with fbm dwside seen limited at 66, fkli is seen stuck within 65-70 range first. 70-75 if fbm can sustain above 70 in earlt trades

Below 70, fkli is a sell.

MarketWrap : fbm strong bounce but fkli suffers..

Negative tone continues as DJ gains failed to jump start the mkt. To be sure, regional was sluggish at best over time. Never did come close to 80 and technical weakness took centre stage.

Fbm was very weak for most of the day, until a late surge after 4.15pm to day’s high. Also pushing Fkli off its lows –giving bulls something to cheer for.

Fantastic rebound, help to prevent an immediate breakdown case if mkt opens weak tomorrow. But still no positive tone yet on the daily chart. Fbm looks bottoming out. A trading buy if mkts stays above 70 tomorrow. Upside target limited to 80, downside limited to 60 ahead of weekend.

Hihihi Poky

The fact that Maxis will only be included in fbmklci index on the 20th, a day after listing,it will not have DIRECT impact or gap up effect on fbmklci on the day its listed. Feel good factor maybe.

However, on 20th, i am confuse whther fbmklci will gap up on the 20th by virtue of a bigger mkt capitalisation as a whole due to Maxis inclusion OR depends on Maxis price net change on that day ? I would think the latter. It seems every 0.10 chg = 1.50 est. index points.

FKLI : morning gossip.....75-80

DJ +44

8.30 am : DJ futs +6. Regional strong start near 1% gains. Commodities strong.

Another chance to near 80 but breakout looks slim as the next course is to neutralise 2-day of toppishness and avoid fresh breakdown especially fbm. How fast the mkt can recover ? have to wait n see.

Above 75, fkli is intra-day buy. Fbm must trade above 77 before fkli can convincingly trade above 80 range.

MAXIS in MAS out ...20th Nov FBMKLCI

19th Nov listing.

Instead of the usual 3rd Fri of June/Dec for making changes, if any, to the index's members, Maxis will join FBMKLCI family on 20th Nov, a day after its listing. Why bring forward ? > Maxis capitalisation is expected to exceed 2% of FBMEmas Index's total capitalisation.

Sayonara to MAS.

Maxis weightage : 6% est. , 5th largest est.

MarketWrap : profit take continues...technical weakness

Two days of 80-toppish scenario. Have we seen the high for this week even though missing 1300 target ? Internally it seems mkt is ready for adjustments especially fbm after a 6d32p winning streak. Upside will very much depend on bullish external for the rest of the week. Fbm pullback is seen limited near 60+ before resume its uptrend.

Therefore, no buying fkli if fbm below 75. Fkli itself is a sell if below 80, maybe opportunity to buy at support.

Fkli breakout buy above 80 but tough act to justify if fbm fails to convince above 75.

FKLI : morning gossip..75-80

DJ +20.

8.30 : DJ futs +30. Rregional taking cue from DJ futs, up 0.5%. Dollar weak. Gold up, the rest flat.

While only small gains, DJ perform better-than-expected yesterday and DJ futs is trading higher now. Market is seen upbeat and no breakout but at least move back 70s upper band.

Above 70, is intra day buy. Watch out for fbm, worry of gap 67-73. If break 73, fkli trading sell

MarketWrap : one minor setback.....

Mkt hit new high but poor finish. All mkts loss steam in afternoon, cautious over DJ tonight with DJ futs staying minus throughout the day.

Profit take but did not distort mkt uprun scenario towards 1300, after all fbm did finish above 70 – maybe not as convincing as retail bulls would like to see. Do expect some zigzagging instead of a steep climb.

After today, trading sell if 70 breaks, targeting major support of 7SMA. Buy signal is above 75 or wait at support lvl. 70-75 dont trade.

FKLI : morning gossip....75-85

DJ +200

8.55 : DJ futs -3. Regional +1.5% to 2.0% range.

Intra-day bullish above 78.

MarketWrap : Asian boleh! ....tks to commodities

Very strong. Asian bulls take charge after strong commodities prices, recovery mode in Asian hours after Fri’s slump. Fkli was upbeat from opening minutes, extending gains after fbm played catch up as regional n Europe picked up steam in the afternoon.


Fbm/fkli best closing this year.

Technically, fkli already in a breakout mode. So if fbm gather enough steam tomorrow above 70 a big run can be expected. Above 70, don’t sell as there is fresh momentum in the making. Any south move but above 7SMA is still bargain buy on weakness.

Fkli next target is 80 first as fbm yet to break to new high ground.

FKLi : morning gossip....60-65

8.35 : DJ futs -3. Regional mixed NK -7 kos +16. Commodities extend Fri's losses.

Fkli/fbm are unlikely to run to new high ground, maintaining firm stance ahead of HS opens. DJ Fri's 23+ gains are unlikely to raise regional tone. Will see whther regional will reward weak US employment data.

Upside depends on regional action. In the mean time, trading sell below 60 for fbm and 65 for fkli Both targeting 55.

Ecnomic data week ahead : US focus

Last week, DJ reclaimed 10k despite a 26-y high unemployment data of 10.2% on Fri. The mkt was boosted earlier by a bigger-than expccted drop in jobless claims. Lucky Fri or the percention that the job situaiton was as bad as it gets and on road to recovery going forward ? Maybe a firm mkt, slow climb not a big rally till jobs recover.

Commodites were lower after the unemployment data.

This week , no significant data till Thu with the usual Thu's weekly jobless claims, Wal-Mart 3Q09 earning ( +0.81 ), Walt Disnet ( +0.40)

MarketWrap : nearing bullish breakout scenario..

One step closer to seeing a fresh breakout, aiming1270-1300 trading band. A week of strong recovery from 1230’s scare, +21p for the week.

However because of today’s toppish candle, it may take another week of dingdong before breakout.

Critical development weeks ahead as failure to break 70 will create double top formation or a bullish breakout targeting 1300-1330 year end.

Green zone, no trend, for intra-day play. Trend support is raised to 50 from 30.

FKLI : morning gossip..1260-1265

DJ +200/+2% after the government reported a bigger-than-expected drop in jobless claims, and a number of retailers reported improved October sales...CNN. DJ/Europe erased losses in Asian hours.

8.30 : DJ futs -6 . Regional +1% to +1.5% range. Commodities softer . Looks like a slow day.

Fkli a gap up but where ? ..i think near 1260 waiting for fbm to show its color. The Q can the initial power last ...im always cautious on gap-up. But take bullish strance if mkt above 60. Below is trading sell targeting the gap window...which will serve as a strong support.

For the week, a closing above 60 is bullish momentum for next week.

MarketWrap: holding its ground..depite weak Europe

No moves after profit take sell in early morning. Very tight range. An intra-day sell but losses limited above 50 for a lack of new bears. Extenals were negative but markets absorbing well thanks to yesterday’s bullish tone,

The feeling is mkt momentum remains strong plus it will definitely have more fun at the higher end as downside seen limited within the ascending triangle…boring. All it needs is a +ve opening above 57.5, setting up a breakout chance above 60, and targeting 70 tomorrow. Perfect!
Fbm looks bullish tomorrow if above 54 after 2-day top

FKLI : morning gossip...55-60

DJ +30, off highs.

8.40 : DJ futs -12. Regional and commodity softer, near flat line.

Profit take for the start but expected to hold firm above 50. Below 60 no frehs buy signal. fbm must cross above 55 to maintain mkt bullishness.

MarketWrap : the start of year-end rally ? ahlong again..

WOW! A significant move > reversing 2-week of negative trend, and all the way to 60 almost 30p higher than yesterday’s low – in a single day. Renewed technical buying and retail cut loss buying. Overall, it seemed like a day where global funds are accumulating across the board –commodity and equity.

Fkli opened stronger than expected, at the top end of 40-45 band and did not look back since! Fbm clsed at high after a 3point push at pre closing phase.


Bullish daily candle but short of a bullish trend yet, band 30-70. A breakdown scenario is history…fingers cross. Strong potential to park near 70++ in coming days in preparations for a bullish breakout scenario once 7SMA/pink crosses up 14SMA/yellow.

Downward risk is likely to be limited a the newly drawn short term uptrend line. Above 56.5 is a buy mkt.

FKLI : morning gossip....1240++

DJ -17 as investors mulled improved auto sales, surging commodity prices and Warren Buffett's buyout of railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe, offset weak financials.

8.30 : DJ futs +11. Regional mixed, flat, no diretion yet. Commodity strong.

With external steady, fkli is seen narrowing yesterdays' discount but not seen as upside momentum until fbm moves up to 43-46 range. Looks like a firm mkt, back by commodity but no big up expected.

Above 36.5, a buy mkt, targeting 46.

MarketWrap : fail to reverse -ve tone....

Fkli suffered double blow, first failure to clear 50 on fbm sluggishness , then Europe’s shock came with a 1% drop on financial * in late trading pulling fkli to its lowest closing since 14 Oct.


*asset-protection scheme updates from two British lenders placed the focus firmly on the banking sector.


From +ve to –ve, the focus returns to “can 30 hold”. Yes for tomorrow on closing basis given fbm last lvl at 42. but the risk increases over time as long as it stays below 50. So, below 40, stay short or out but not long.

FKLI : morning gossip.....45-50

DJ +70 after big swing with two camps fighting over the health of economy.

8.30 : DJ futs +31. NK closed. Kos flat. Commdities firmer.

No trend today, just recovery mode. FKLi is seen near 45 until fbm opens. Do not go overly bullish till fbm breaks abvoe 44. 50 within reach today.

MarketWrap : very strong...tks to china

Market strong reversal caught sellers off guard and probably triggered “shock” covering that gave fkli its premium. After discounting DJ Fri’s loss, the mkt decided to take a fresh bet, betting on DJ rebound tonight amid strong signal from DJ futs and feel good SH factors - manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 18 months and strong corporate profits eg SAIC Motor, Industrial Bank

Mkt escape breakdown today, but the mkt has yet to turn +ve. The big white candle looks imposing..could probably hold back bears.... but the fact remains the mkt under the horizontal resistance(56.5) and the short term downtrend line. Unlikely to see big moves tomorrow.

Above 40, no need to sell. Focus on long is above 50.

FKLI : morning gossip ...35-40

DJ -250 on profit take selling, no change of fundamental seen.

8.30 : DJ futs +20. Regional dow -25 to -3%. Commodities extend Fri's losses, -3%. Dollar weak.

It seems a tall order to turn positive, above 40, on daily basis today. No position-long foresee today. Fkli is seen starting near 35, assuming a 30-40 range. 30 look safe in initial trades but risk of breakdown is great unless regional rebounds later from their expected gap-down opening.

Sell on weakness mkt going into the week.

US economic data week ahead...

With 70% of S&P companies reported their 3Q results ,the focus returns to economic data like job and housing related data eg pending home sales on Mon and Oct job data due Fri.

At a glance : Oct09 markets performance

US/Europe indexes mthly perfomance....

Asian indexes mthly perfomance....