Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Fcpo wrap....profit take at major resistance lvl...



Major selling force begins in PM after fcpo dips into –ve territory. Players decide to lock in profit too after fcpo reaches major resistance lvl, near 3750+. Still, its too early to call for a pullback mode as fcpo remains above 7SMA but internal momentum seen at the tail end.

Below 3720 is dwward-bias for the week.

Fkli wrap....defensive role continues..same support



Fbm mostly –ve territory, except in early trading and after a preclosing +2 push. CIMB recoups some losses today but selling continues in others top 30. Firmer externals help to keep fkli above 1510 for the past 3 days as fbm drags.

Technically, sideways and danger of breaking support lvl. Mkts need to climb higher, back above 1515, to maintain an uptrend posture. Below 1510, target 1500.

Morning start...fkli firm 1510-13 fcpo strong 3740-50

DJ +18, small moves again. Europe +1%

8.20 DJ futs -8. regional mixd. , -0.15 to +0.15. NK lower on stronger yen effect. Commodity firm to higher on weaker $ effect.

fkli : RM strong, a boost for fbm ? generally +ve unless selling in CIMB continues. fkli seen steady within 1510-15 range. Above 1513 is a strong mkt today. Dwside seen limited near 1505, if 1510 support breaches.

fcpo : SO +1.3%. fcpo seen testing 3750, even 3800 if SO strength continues. tech bullish if > 3720.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Fcpo wrap....not overdone ? ...tech bullish





Strong sentiment amid lower stock data and strong SO price. SO aiming for a technical breakout above 55 mark. Fcpo see tech above 3650 in AM and above 3700 in PM after a stronger SO during lunch break. While fcpo valuation is high, fcpo tech bullisness continues to drive the mkt.



Fcpo is venturing into major resistance lvl near 3750, the top of a long consolidation before the Lehman crisis set in. Doubtful of another major breakout this year, profit take more likely towards year end.

Fkli wrap...survive selling pressure on CIMB...



Fbm manages to recoup Fri’s preclosing gap-dw but only for the first 5 mins as selling in CIMB continues, dragging fbm all day long. Fkli manage to steady tks to external +ve. SH +3%, HS +1%. But because of two conflicting signals, fkli seesaws within 1510-14 in a quiet day.

Technically , 1510-20 is neutral to dwward-bias as fbm.fkli are under the immediate red line resistance lvl. Upside potential remains intact if mkts above 7SMA. . Will selling in CIMB continues ?

At a glance : MPOB Nov data...out last Fri




Morning start...fkli firm 1510-13 fcpo weak 3600-20

8.25 All quiet in Asian. Equity firm, commoidty weaker tone. Regional +0.2%. CO -1%

fkli : seen steady above 1510, expecting a bounce in fbm following Fri's pre-closing phase gap-dw. but unlikely to reverse chart outlook back to +ve today, > 1520. Below 1510, 1504 target.

fcpo : SO -1%. defensive tart for fcpo, if 3600 is supported, it will aim for a breakout above 3640, targeting 3700. To the dwside if 3600 breaks, 3570-80 next support.

Friday, December 10, 2010

Fcpo wrap..this week +117 and strong closing tone too...

Add Image
Fkli late pullback, fcpo late rebound. Buying resume from 5.30 PM onwards after fcpo continue tio find support at 3600 lvl. Mostly buyback as no incentives to break tech support lvl amid strong SO, raising worries of going against mkt trend.
Above 7SMA, fresh target of 3700+30 range next week before a pullback mode.

Fkli wrap..this week +12.5..but not-so-well closing


Fbm 8 point selloff in preclosing stage. CIMB the main culprit….-3/8. It looks like weekend adjustment not so much of external driven. External soft, quiet all day…cautious on China possible rate hike tomorrow while DJ barely move for the past 3 days

Already profit take tone for most of the day, the last min selling pull mkt back under thus’s breakout lvl. Because of one isolated event, fbm.fkli fail to finish on neutral tone but dwward-bias even though uptrend remains intact.

Morning start...fkli firm 1520 fcpo firm 3600-10

DJ -2, Europe +0.55..all small moves.

8.35 : Dj futs +1 Regional softer tone but flattish. Commodity mixed.

fkli : intra-day bullish if above 1518 but upside towards 30 if fbm > 22. but looks like 15-25 range.

fcpo : SO mixed, +0.2%. dwward-bias on pullback mode if below 3620. If 3600 breaks, target 3560. Fresh buy interest is seen if > 3650.

Thursday, December 09, 2010

Fcpo wrap...profit take continues..



Tired ? Gap-up opening but defensive all day. SO , +2% fails to inspire fcpo today after breaking its winning streak yesterday. Sideways, 3610-30 for most of the day till the last mins sell off.
Profit take dominates but no major disruption to its uptrend outlook, if above 3550 this week. Fresh upward momentum seen if > 3650, especially next week. Tomorrow, profit take tone too.

Fkli wrap....the begining of year-end mini bull run...



Fbm’s year-end mini bull run starts in PM today. CIMB lead for the past 2-day. Fresh tech buy as mkts break away from its 1-mth old consolidation range.

Fbm.fkli is set to challenge year-high lvl, 1530++ , aiming 1510-50 higher range for the rest of the year.

Morning start...fkli firm 1510-13 fcpo strong 3630-50

DJ +13 , Europe mixed, all small moves. Selloff in Treasury continues, yield at 6-mth high. Redeeming fund for risker portfolio next year ?

8.30 : DJ futs +35. regional +0.5%. US$ seesaws, marginally weaker than Wed. CO +0.5%. GOLD -1%

fkli : good environment to test 1510 resistance again, targeting 1510-20 range. above 1508-10 is bullish.

fcpo : SO +2%, no luck for bears. good chance for bulls to push fcpo back above 3600, and likely fresh year high today. 3600-3650 range. above 3600 is bullish, targeting 3700.

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Fcpo wrap...profit take but no damages, uptrend intact


Profit take from get-go and survives a selloff during PM opening trades amid weak equity sentiment. Bargains under 3550 seen today but fcpo remains in consolidation mode, 3550-3600, dwside risk greater. Still if mkt stays above 7SMA, 3700 remains a viable target b4 year end.

Fkli wrap...the beginning of 1520-30 journey...



Bansai CIMB!..strong from onset, +4 fbm point, helps to lift mkt Top-30 sentiment despite unfavorable external condition. Selling more intense in PM when HS.SH take a dive amid weak commodity prices and worries over China R% hike this weekend. However, fbmfkli finds strong support at 1505+ before a late comeback towards 1510 again

Fbm seems ready to tackle year top resistance after 2-day of consolidation mode. Maybe next week…..a breakout above the red-line resistance for year end rush. 1520-30 looks like the final target for 2010, if mkt sustain above 1500 this week.

Morning srart...fkli firm 1500-04 fcpo weak 3580-00

Not much from DJ for the past 2-day, marginally lower. Gave up gains yesterday amid a selloff in the bond mkt as higher interest rate spooked invenstor.Europe on a 2-day gains.

8.20 : Dj futs -8. Regional +0.5%. Mosly higher, near +1% yesterday. Commodity off high on profit take. CO -1%. GOLD at 1400 mark.

fkli : steady near 1500, with upside towards 05 if fbm >1502. Negative tone if both < 1500, for 1490-00 play

fcpo : SO -1%. 3600 looks like a top this week ?...3550-3600 correction is expected.

Monday, December 06, 2010

Fcpo wrap...super bull..3700-50 coming



6-day wining streak.....+RM336. Bulls gather fresh momentum following SO strong gains over the weekend as commodity takes advantage of weaker US% after Bernanke says may pump in more than QE2 if necessary.


If fcpo stays above 3550, tech fresh bullish zone of 3550-3750 is expected. 3700-50 looks like the top for the year as pullback correction is likely to set in.

Fkli wrap..playing defensive..so far so good



Equity quiet, near flat line with –ve bias tone, waiting for DJ first reaction to Bernanke’s interview, released Sunday’s morning. Mkt seesaws with strong resources tone but worries over US weak job data. Europe firm, +0.3%. Dj futs -10.

Fbm.fkli sideways in –ve tone as trading below resistance lvl despie a strong opening trades. Like Fri. fbm is not in a mode to test upside…still in profit taking mode.

Toppish but remains upward bias, waiting for fbm’s cue.

Morning start...fkli firm 1500- 03, fcpo firm 3530-50

US Fed's Bernanke says may try more easing beyond QE2 and it will take 4-5 for empolyment to recover or become normal. US$ weak.

8.25: Dj futs +12. Regional mixed, flat, FX-effect play. NK -0.2%. Commodity strong on weak US$. CO +1.5% GOLD at record on inflationary fear...again.

fkli : strong RM...likely a boost than a drag for our mkt. But, internal momentum weak after Fri, upside if fbm can > 1503....back to 1500-10 tight range ahead of holiday tomorrow. fkli seen at 1500-05 if fbm> 1500.

fcpo : SO +1.2%. fcpo seen stuck within 3500-3550. Upwar-bias if > 3500-10. Dwside risk seen at 3440 if 3500 breaks.

Friday, December 03, 2010

Fcpo wrap...this week +RM242...aiming pre-Lehman top..3700?





5-day winning streak…+RM242 but new-high streak stops at 3.

A very quiet day for fcpo…same range as Thu. SO strong but seen as catching up factor. Fcpo’s weekend profit take mode continues…weak equity sentiment also a drag. For some, recent momentum is enough to justify bargains at 3500 today.

Still a pullback tone if under 3550, targeting 7SMA. While very “expensive to SO, discount of US$40-50 per tonne only ,it would take a backseat first if a breakout above 3550 occurs next week. A move that would target 3600 if not 3700.

Above 3450 is bullish.