Economic data week ahead...US focus

selected few...

Mon : manufacturing index

Fri : May jobs report( -550,000 jobs, up 11,000 from April ), umeployement rate ( est 9.2% from 8.9% )

Quick Look : May09 market performance

-Strong commodities price in May. The beginning of commodities bull run in anticipation of a recovery in the US economy?

-Crude oil top the list in May09, while April’s champion. FCPO, took a breather last month and rest at the bottom of the list.

-Gold up on weaker dollar across the board rather than a safe-haven bet. Also, US 10-year bond price continues to languish at the year lows.

-Export-oriented countries make double-digit-% gains in May. On this note, KLCI has a lot to catch up and therefore strong upside potential is insight in June..

FKLI Trading : long again....

Fkli finished higher on "fresh" positive event fron the regional side. ( see MarketWrap) Short covering followed by renewed technical buying pushed fkli to finish at +ve territory again after a minor setback yesterday.

Basically, technical outlook remains the same as at the start of the week- Positve to potential bullish. Hopefully, this time we will see 1070-1100 upper range and not consolidating stuff that is difficult to trade.

MarketWrap: explosive afternoon....

Mkt was jolted in the afternoon after a quiet morning session as regional mkt hit some "first". Like, NK turn +ve, HS hit above 18000 , both for the first time this year. A rise in enrgy price also boosted energy-related stocks.

May09 Equity perfomance

Index/May09%/ytd%

HS +17 +26
TWI +15 +50
NK +8 +7
SH +6 +45
KLCI +5 +19
KOS +2 +24

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +100/+1% , stocks ended a volatile session higher Thursday as the government's most recent debt auction saw solid demand and a rise in oil prices boosted shares of energy producers. ..CNN

DJ futs -5. NK +21. Kos -2

FKLI is seen moving back up towards the middle sideways-range of 1040-1060. The mkt may remain above 7SMA after all for the week but may not reverse this week toppish outlook today.

Buy above 1045.5 for position trade.

FKLi Trading : a shift to negative tone.....

FKLI move lower and testing short term supoprt lvl. FKLi broke 7SMA and could retest the uptrendline around 1020 if mkt opens soft tomorrow. Trading sell can target this lvl.

But, i think the trend will remain positive, so selling is for short term play and ready to long if this support stays.

MarketWrap : weakness continues....

Rather boring day. Weak throughout the day. A bit of selling in fkli after Europe mkts opened lower. However, klci was steady near 1040++ lvl.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -170/-2%.

DJ futs -19. NK -26p. Kos +1p

Without DJ +ve factor and plus poor gdp data, its going to be a tough day for long players. Can 1040-1060 remains or are we looking at 1030-1050 range instead. While mkt is expected to be weak, i do not see a dramatic change in the technical outlook

1030 seems a strong support. buy on strength only today.

What's new : GDP shrank -6.2%

Malaysia 1Q09 GDP fell -6.2%, worse than mkt consensus of -4%.

Impact : negative but not bearish and probably already factor in these past few days.

FKLI Trading : another struggle to the upside...

Technically, the mkt continues to remain in positive-bias area for the past few days but without the “wow” factor. Still, waiting for the next big move, with a wishful “one” towards 1070++. Stoploss is raised again towards 1040 following.

MarketWrap : fail to catch DJ’s bull train….

Major bourses, HS/NK surged, taking cue from DJ, which provided further feel good factor after their government pumped in fresh “stimulus” in the form of tax cut, subsidies and SME loan. SKorea, however, marginally lower, continued to suffer from Big Brother Kim’s annual-event-nuclear threat-syndrome, which usually means an official request for foreign $$$.

HK/CHINA/TAIWAN – Thus holiday
CHINA/TAIWAN - Fri holiday. Therefore, for the month of May, SH +6%, TWI +15%

Our mkt were sluggish and underperformed the rest, continued to witness profit take activities while fresh buying remained sidelines –probably cautious ahead of 1Q09 GDP announcement.

Both klci.fkli struggled to keep its upper-body posture but at the same time, lower-body was steady amid strong external factors. Klci.fkli finished near its intraday low but fkli managed to stay positive due to yesterday sharp discount.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +200/+2% after a report showing consumer confidence hit an eight-month high offset dismal housing news.The index now stands at its highest level since September, when it reached 61.4. But that's still low by historical standards. ..CNN

Europe mkts closed +1%

Currently, DJ futs -12. NK +130/+1% Kos +1%

FKLI will receive a much needed boost after two days of cautious tone. Range probably remains at 1040-1060 but targeting the upper band.

FKLI Trading : testing long conviction...

Technically, further weakness could provide trading-sell opportunity, below 7SMA targeting 14SMA. But market trend is likely to keep its short-term uptrend outlook- buy at support( yellow line or 14SMA) or above 1050++.

MarketWrap : FKLI follows regional sentiment....

Quiet and mostly position adjustment activities. Without US leads, sentiment was weak, but without major selling pressure, as profit taking continues. Fresh positions stay sidelines, waiting for the next move. While sentiment remains fragile, the market is keeping its upbeat outlook and not giving up yet for further upside.

FKLI suffered late selling activities as intra-day sentiment did not improve . Wide discount to KLCI indicates desparate selling or cut loss selling.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ futs +13. NK +48. KOs -21.

External factors were inconclusive but still positive bias.

Klci is seen firm ahead of HS opens. FKLI May09 is seen rangebound 1040-1060 with surprise to the upside.

May09 is called to open within 1047-1050

FKLI Trading : positive, support up.....

Technical outlook remains positive. Support is raised to 1030++ or the 7SMA area.

MarketWrap : higher after a struggle…

Market hit new high but profit taking activities disrupted a smooth upside momentum. Players’ sentiment was generally mixed and cautious today for a lack of clear direction from external mkts.

I was kind of expecting an easy ride to the upside today on follow through but….Still it was a positive performance as klci.fkli finishes above 1050. Market remains positive for long position

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -14 flat for the week. DJ futs +12.

Ringgit at its 2009's strongest against the US dollar this morning, 3.4790. Foreign buying klic again ??

NK +1%. KOs +0.5%

FKLI is seen trending firm to higher today. A good chance to break above new trading range of 1050-1070.

May09 is seen hovering within 1040-1050, awaiting klci opening and direction

Economic data week ahead...US focus

selected few....

Mon : US holiday

Tues : GM deadline to restructure its debt. If Obama disaproval, GM face bankruptcy at the end of this month

Wed: April sales of existing homes

Thus : April new home sales, Dell 1Q09 report ( est +0.23 vs +0.38 1Q08)

Fri : 1Q09 GDP (est -5.5%)

FKLI Trading : strong reversal...engulfing bull...

FKLI hit new year highs on late short covering activities. A strong follow through on Monday will set the mkt tone bullish and a leg up towards 1070++. Will maintain a buy mkt till further negative development.