Tuesday, May 31, 2011

At a glance....regional May performance...%



Fcpo wrap...extending Mon's toppish sentiment


Equity bullish tone only provides a quick fix in early PM. But fails to find storng footing after a 2-day of toppish-ness around 3450-60 Selling continues….

While CO strong, the rest commodity mostly seesaws . SO moves within +0.1% to -0.1%.

A closing under 3400 is not good, danger of shifting back towards 3300-3400 range. At moment mkt remains in uptrend zone. A tug of war in the coming days, sideways before the next big move.

Fkli wrap...comfirming fresh upper range 1540-1580


Super bullish, especially in PM as fbm.fkli break above Apr’s high and settle the day at near 5-mth high.

Regional surges in PM after 3pm on Europe cue, extending AM’s strong gains on strong CO tone, +1%. HS +500. DJ futs +100.

Europe firmly +ve on news that Greek’ debt pblm may see breakthrough after Germany says it would abandon a push to reschedule Greek debt early.


Technically bullish, on-course towards year-high but seems overdone today. New spike is likely to tomorrow if fbm >60. Otherwise, some consolidation tone towards 7SMA support first.

Morning start...fkli firm 1543-45 fcpo firm 3400-20

Postive tone in early Tues, Europe mixed overnight. Regional +ve. NK +0.5% despite higher jobless rate in April. commodity flat but firmer on weaker dollar factor, especially agianst the Euro as bond dwgrade news takes a backseat. RM near 3.0000.

Fkli 1540 looks good support again. To the upside, at best 45-50 in AM session
Cautious remains if fbm under 45.

Fcpo SO 0.1%. Breakdw risk under 3400 in opening trades but is likely to be well defended amid the current SO lvl. Still, below 3440 is dwward-bias tone.

Monday, May 30, 2011

Fcpo wrap...like Fkli...missing a followthrough breakout..



Steady AM but daily trend makes a U-turn in PM after CO dips under 100-mark. SO cuticuti. Toppish-outlook related selling further aggravates the situation in the last 30-mins. Not to mention, a strong RM too.

Setback yes , no major damage....yet ...as mkt remains in +ve ground. Uptrend remains intact if > 3350 this week But cautious in the coming days if < 3450 for a pullback towards its 1-mth old uptrend line.

Fkli wrap...likely off high for mth-end closing


No breakout higher, tight range, near 1550 but late selling activities drag fkli under 1545 after fbm hit day’s low at closing phase. Regional flat but mostly firmer tone. HS/SH +0.5% .Europe +1%. DJ futs +20. Equity lifeless for a lack of commodity gains. CO dips under 100-mark again in Asian PM.

Strong day for RM, 1-week high. 3.0185 vs 3.0315. buy US1$. But fails to boost equity..maybe bond benefits...pressure on Zeti!

Upward-bias remains but breakout scenario seen taking a back seat with further pullback towards 1535-40 first after a failure to generate fresh high, plus weak daily candle. Cautious until mkt regains 50 mark.

Morning start..fkli firm 1548-50 fcpo soft 3430-40

DJ clsed Mon , memorial day. DJ.Europe Fri's gains, +0.5%/+1% perfomance will limit regional dwside.

8.30 Regional lower near -0.5% for a lack of commofity gains. Commodity flat.

Fkli 50-targeting as bullish if > 45. Risk of pullback towards 35 if 45 fails to hold. But likely 40-50 play.

Fcpo SO -0.3%, 20-50 neutral range, wait for breakout, especially breakout higher to generate follow through tone.

Friday, May 27, 2011

Fcpo wrap....same resistance again...Apr's high


Off high on profit take sell today but seen taking position for a breakout scenario next week, above 3454 targeting 3550-3600 in early June.

To maintain this week's momentum and encourage followthrough, mkt must stay above 3400.

Fkli wrap...ready to test year high....near 1580


Fbm.fkli are likely to aim for fresh upper range in early Jun, 1560-80, even target 1600. But first, bulls target is to manage a breakout and sustain within 1550-60 ahead of expiry.

Upward tone support is raised to 40 from 30.

Regional higher on HS leads. +1%, energy stocks again. Europe also strong , near +1% on stronger Euro. But Dj futs -10.

Morning start...fkli soft 1540-43 fcpo firm 3430-40

Everything flat overnight. DJ +8.

8.30 : regional flat to -0.5%. Dj futs -4.

FKli no immediate upside but seen well supported too. 40-45 in early trades. +ve tone as long as fbm >38. Fkli dwside risk is 36 today.

Fcpo SO +1%. fcpo seen back to Thu's high, a strong resistance at the current SO lvls. Aboe 3420 is bullish.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Fcpo wrap...strong footing but no gains..


Fcpo retreats from resistance, encouraging profit take sell activities. Already not much oomph to start with today, maybe bulls keeping bullets for next week. 3400-3450 sideways ahead of weekend.

3390-3400 seen as solid support unless SO fall sharply tomorrow, then 3400-3500 play for the rest of the month

Fkli wrap....good weekend for bulls ?.....seemingly so


A strong day, follow through momentum and perfect condition for a breakout towards 1580 – next week if mkt sustains above 40 tomorrow. Above 50, profit take pressure ahead of the week. Bullish if above 40 and +ve for next week if > 35.

Strong CO price lead regional higher today.

Morning start...fkli firm 1533-35 fcpo firm 3420-30

DJ/Europe near +0.5% Commodity mostly flat but CO back above 100 mark, +2%.

8.25 : regional strong, +1% on strong CO. DJ futs +4.

Fkli likely to secure 30-40 range unless fbm dips under 30. but, expectations for mkt to head towards 40. Generally , fkli is a buy if > 30.

Fcpo SO +0.4% how high ? ....upward bias seen 50-60 and possible attempt at 3500 a move seen as kneejerk with the current SO rate. Bullish day if > 3400.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Fcpo wrap.....bullish closing ..ready to test 3450.. part 2




After a lackluster and neutral AM session, fcpo surges to 3400 lvl after finding the same support at 3350+ again in PM opening trades. SO mild gains from mild losses earlier also a contributing factor.

Market is back above 3400, creating another chance to revisit an almost 2-mth high near 3450+ and park within 3450-3500 this week and attacking 3600 next week. Critical support is seen at 3380-3400 this week.

Fkli wrap...the end of dwside play...already ?



Fbm strong despite weak external. GLCs, like SIME PCEM lead a strong start. Regional mostly -0.5% on banking stocks. HS manages to reverse a -1% in early PM to finish +0.1%. Dj futs -50 off lows of near -90. Both provide additional oomph for fkli to narrow its discount. Europe -0.5%.

Technically, back to square one for bears, as 1520 remains solid support and seen moving back to familiar 20-40 sideways tone. It seems no major trend or breakout scenario this week too.

+ve tone if fbm > 35 tomorrow, for 30-40 range play again

Morning start...fkli firm 1525-27 fcpo firm 3370-80

All mixed and flat. DJ -20 Europe +0.2%.


8.30 : regional mixed, near flat. DJ futs -10. Commodity flat too, firmer tone.

Fkli above 20 is upside but remains sideways. Fbm upside seen cap near 37 and bounce tone if > 30. Critical support is 28.

Fcpo SO -0.1%. Major selling if 3340 support breaks, otherwise sideways as 3400 looks toppish at the current externals. 3360-90 neutral, range.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Fcpo wrap...Mon's mid range play...bounce tone


Thin trading and sideways, with no fresh –ve despite yesterday bearish daily candle. Commodity firmer tone today.

Good news for bulls but not out of the woods yet, if mkt stays below 3407. Critical support remains near 3340. Immediate breakout range is 65-90

Fkli wrap...parking near Mon's lower ranges


Steady in AM and like most mkts, climb higher after 3pm when Europe opens on firmer tone and trade near +0.5%. Fkli rebound tone but discount stance and yet to escape bears grip.

Dwward bias but no fresh dwward thrust if >17 or firm tone if fbm >30.

Morning start...fkli firm 1518-20 fcpo firm 3360-70

DJ -100, Europe -2% but all almost priced-in in late Asian hours yesterday.

8.30 : Regional flat to softer tone, DJ futs -5. Commodity flat.

Fkli seen steady amid wide discount alteady, near 20+ first. Both fbm.fkli are however, unlikely to reverse yesterday -ve tone without a +ve external. Fresh major -ves if fbm <25. till then fkli is seen seesaw within 18-26

FCPO SO +0.1% senn steayd but limited upside, 3390-3400, and dwward risk towards 7SMA or near 3330 remains

Monday, May 23, 2011

Fcpo wrap....May's upside taking a breather this week...



Tracking equity sentiment, fcpo fails to create any significant upside today and mostly defensive and –ve day after dipping under 3390 lvl. A setback but short term uptrend remains, still above this mth uptrend line and 7SMA support.

Generally dwward-bias, on testing support scenario, if mkt stays below 3400.

Fkli wrap...last week's bulls suffer defeat........



Here it goes again -Bond dwgrade, Greece. Italy. Europe losses spark selling in equity today. Commodity lower on strong US$. Regional/Europe near -2%. DJ futs -100.

Fbm.fkli last week’s upside potential comes to an end today and likely to see further dwside towards the lower band of recent sideways play.

Friday, May 20, 2011

Fcpo wrap...testing Apr's high..nearly a given

Fcpo continues its short term uptrend tone but see profit take above 3400 today ahead of weekend. Likely to see at attempt at 3450-60 first on Monday b4 shifting to a pullback mode targeting 3310-20 or 7SMA. At the same time, 3450-3500 seems a bit overstretch without any pullback first or till 7SMA catches up.

Above 3360 is strong uptrend mkt. With fresh bulls on Mon if fcpo stays above 3400

Fkli wrap... risk of 20-40 if closing under 40 on Mon


Fbm/fkli same story lines every day this week – toppish but maintaining +ve tone. Toppish around 40-45 range but supported in +ve zone, above 35.

Regional and Dj futs flat, mixed and seesaw today. Europe, however, strong in early trades near +1%.

Mkt needs a decision next week –either 1-mth fresh 40-60 high range or 20-40 sideways again. Above 45 is breakout higher scenario, while critical support is seen at 32. Upward bias till 7SMA support is broken .

Morning start...fkli firm 1540-43 fcpo firm 3360-70

DJ +50, Europe +0.55, bulls hanging on. but all seems quiet. Regional flat to +0.2%. Commodity mixed. Mostly flat, CO off Thu's high, -1%.

FKLI 40-45 top range again ? or breakout for 45-50 ? All depends on fbm direction as externals are unlikely to provide strong indications. Generally bullish if above 40 or stay +ve, above 35, for the week. Dwside seen limited today.

FCPO SO +0.1%. internal momentum to test 3400 ? Bullish if above 3350. Profit take sell seen above 3400 today.

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Fcpo wrap...back to early high on late buiyng interest






Fcpo extends its tech breakout outlook by clearing 3300 psychological resistance. Fcpo could test 3400 tomorrow on the back of stronger SO and if mkt sustains above 3350 lvl. But a sustainable breakout above 3400 seems unlikely this week – that is next week target, 3400-3454 major.

Fkli wrap...+ve but still sideways and toppish...


Fbm.fkli finish +ve but in a less than convincing fashion. Off highs and near day’s lower band. Fkli very cautious after failing to clear recent resistance as panic selling set in following fbm rapid fall from 1550 mark in the opening mins on TENAGA “erratic” moves.

Fkli remains under 1540 despite favorable externals. Regional mostly firmer tone, Europe +0.5%. DJ flat. Bulls are saving the best for next week ? Immediate support is catching up . Above 1535 is bullish , for 40-70 play next week.

Morning start...fkli firm 1537-39 Fcpo firm 3310-20

DJ +80 , Europe near +1%, rebound after 3-day of losing streak. Commodity mostly quiet with firmer tone. fkli bullish tone if fbm >40, for 40-50 play once fbm > 43. FCPO SO +1% follow through buying seen, targeting 3300-3350 range. Above 3300 is bullish tone.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Fcpo wrap....fresh short term uptrend ?


Sideways play after a gap opening on tech support. Commodity firm tone also lend a hand. A breakout from its descending triangle, just missing a closing above 3300. But today’s actions could provide a fresh impetus to revisit 3400 this week. Upward bias support is raised to 3270.

Fkli wrap...still toppish but bulls defending 30



Fbm mostly upward bias for the day, in +ve territory but remains toppish near 1540 resistance again. Fkli see selling after fbm dips bank under 1540 and stays discount thereafter. All moves are within Mon’s range. Neutral range for fkli, 34-40, with strong buying interest seen if > 1546 as a fresh breakout point.

Regional +0.5%. Dj futs and Europe strong showing after 3-day of losses. Dj futs +50 , Europe +1%.

Morning start...fkli softer 30-34 fcpo firm 3250+

Fbm.fkli pricing in Dj -100 points drop and Europe near -2% in 2-day. Regional mixed yesterday and +ve tone this morning near +0.5% on weaker local currency. Commodity almost flat for the past 2-day.

Fkli softer start but 30 likely to remain as support. Upside potential remains, targeting 40 closing, if fbm > 36.

FCPO SO +0.1% near recent trading range, +ve range of 3250-3300. Above 3230 is upward bias tone.

Monday, May 16, 2011

Fcpo wrap...still sideways and remains upward bias.


Weaker RM provided some support but upside gains limited on commodity –ve tone. Still, a strong fcpo today, testing 3300 resistance but no breakout scenario yet. Above 3200 is upward bias.

Fkli wrap...bulls suffer minor setback but remains hopeful



Regional weakness on Europe debt fear and weaker commodity prices on stronger US$ put bulls into defensive mode after a strong performance last week. Selling accelerated in late trading after Europe dips deep into –ve territory too extending Fri’s weakness.

A relief for bears as mkt remains sideways despite last week bullish closing. Nevertheless, mkt remains in bulls grip in above 1530. Any weakness on Wed will then confirm another sideways play.

Morning start...fkli soft 1538-40 fcpo soft 3260-70

Despite a strong perfomance in early hours, DJ -100, Europe -1% Fri, as fear of Greece debt resurface after European countries fail to agree on a common plan. Regional -0.5%. Commodity near -1%.

Fkli seen steady first, near 40, and remains upward bias till 1538 support is breached for 30-40.

FCPO SO -0.6%, seen opening softer in neutral range 3250-3280. If 3250 can hold, fcpo remains upward bias and 3300 target stays intact.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Fkli wrap....back to bulls camp..





Despite mixed and flat equity sentiment today, local bank strong run continues. Plus SIME . Fbm approaching recent top, 1540. Dwtrend tone is off techncially, with mkt seen attempting a breakout higher scenario. A quick shift of tone, just a week ago fear of breakdw dominates. Or it could still remain a sideways mkt, 20-40.

A breakout above 1540 could send prices towards 1570. But seen unsustainable above 1540 this week on profit take sell ahead of weekend. Bullish if above 1530

Mornign start...fkli firm 1523-25 fcpo firm 3270-80

DJ +80 , U.S. stocks rose for third straight day on Tuesday, as investors were bolstered by Microsoft's $8.5 billion deal to buy Skype, along with stronger commodity price. Europe +1%.

8.30 : Regional +1%. DJ futs +20. CO +3%.

Fkli 20-30 range play. Near 23-27 in initial trades and upward bias today, if > 20.

FCPO SO +0.7%. seen securing 3250-3300 range but likely toppish at 3300 today

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Fcpo wrap....sideways but bulls happier at mom



















Scaling higher on +ve tech outlook and strong commodity again. Mostly above 3250, a fresh tech +ve zone today, also regaining 7day SMA line. Upward bias, testing short term trend line if it stays above 3200. Like Fkli, question remains whether it can reverse its short term dw trend tone…….. unlikely this week

Fkli wrap...sideways....testing short term resistance





Cautious start but pick up some momentum in PM in line with regional/Europe/dj futs +0.5% gains. Generally a quiet day again. Commodity firmer tone also encourage follow through.

Fbm.fkli move towards sideways range again, if above 1515, and upward bias but will face tougher fight seen near 1530 on sell on strength activities this week

MPOB APR data ...neutral to -ve.



Apr11's Production +8%, End-stock +3%, Export +8% vs Mar11.

Morning start...fkli firm 1520-23 fcpo firm 3240-50

DJ +50 as commodity continues to boun ce while Europe -0.5% as Greece Euro zone-pull-out concern continues. Regional +0.5%. Commodity near +0.5%.

FKLI chance to do 20-25 range Above 20 is bullish but 25-30 seen as sell-on-strength zone. Fbm strong resistance at 25, +ve if > 19. FCPO SO +0.2%, seen in-n-out of 3250 and chance to do 3250-3290 range. if can sustain above 3240.

Monday, May 09, 2011

Fcpo wrap....commodity bounce . silver leads





In +ve zone for most of the day but no surprises to the upside. Commodity +ve day on recovery mode, lead by metals and energy. 3200-3240 mostly.

Immediate support band is raised to 3175-3200. Above this range is bounce tone, targeting short term dwtrend line if mkt crosses above 3250

Fkli wrap....no fresh leg dw yet...bounce tone






Regional mostly higher except NK, taking cue from a strong DJ futs +50. Firmer commodity and strong US job data over the wkend spark buyback after last week slump. Fbm, however, sluggish before picking up some momentum in PM.

Fkli more upbeat, on HS +1% gains, near par after wide discount recently. Bounce tone if fbm > 1515 but dw trend remains as it stays under short term dwtrend line. Danger of fresh leg dw if last week’s low is breached

Morning start...fkli firm 1515+ fcpo firm 3200-3210

Regional mixed, NK/KOS -0.12%. DJ futs +50 on higher commodity and Greece remains in Europe zone. Fbm.Fkli seen tsting resistance, 20. Bounce tone with fbm >15. Upside limit near 25 today. FCPO SO +0.5%, fcpo seen back to 3200-3250 range. Like FKli, bounce to test resistance . Posititve if > 3190.

Friday, May 06, 2011

Fcpo wrap...bearish tone for next week...



Bearish closing, below 3200 and under 200SMA. This could spark big fresh leg down ,towards 3050-3100 next week. if weakness persists on Mon. Immediate resistance is lowered to 3250

Fkli wrap...bearish but looks like bounce first




Fbm 6-day losing streak, -20p. Fkli reverses wide discount on late short covering activity. Regional -0.5% off lows tone on buybacks after falling so many days. Plunging commodity prices, mainly silver and CO, continues to drive mkt lower. Can US Apr11 job data tonight reverse the trend ?


Fbm.fkli, bounce first or immediate fresh leg down towards 1460-70 ? Looks like a bounce first towards 1425-30. Above 1510 is bounce potential with serious danger of the latter only if 1500 breaks.

Morning start...fkli weak 1505-10 fcpo weak 3200+

DJ -140, Europe -1% as energy stocks tumble and cautious ahead of US Apr11 job data. NK reopens -2%. KOS -1%. Commodity selloff. CO -7%. GOLD -2%. FKLI likely to take new lower trading range of 1500-1510 but higher band in early trades amid its wide discount. Selling likely to persist as fbm is seen trading under 1520, bearish zone, 1500-1520. FCPO SO -2%. 3200-support test today. A breach will target 3160 today. Bearish if below 3230

Thursday, May 05, 2011

Fcpo wrap....ready for 3100-3200 ...next week



Well supported around 3250-60 in early trades but sell on strength keeps bulls in check too. Sideways with 2 attempts near 3300 resistance but bears take control in the end, thanks to weak external, and tech sell again in late trading after 3250 is taken out.

No major signals today, maintaining –ve outlook. Looks like fresh leg down next week, under 3200 if mkt finish under 3250 tomorrow. Below 3250 is bearish.

Fkli wrap.....critical support...danger of fresh leg down














With no +ve cue and weaker RM, bears technie continue to dominate. But within Wed’s lower ranges and no fresh sell signal today. Danger of a breakdw increases technically. External mostly lower on weaker commodity price again. Europe/dj futs flattish.




Fkli is bearish if under 16. Kneejerk sell under 1510 towards 1500 but likely to close off lows tomorrow if wide discount persists on wkend profit take buy. New fresh lower range next week ?

Morning start...fkli soft 1510-15 fcpo weak 3240-50

DJ -80/-1% as disappointing private reports on jobs cast fear ahead of Apr job data out this Fri. Europe -1%. Commodity slide continues, GOLD -2%. Sliver dw almost 20% in the last two sessions. Regional weak tone, AUST -0.5% to KOS -1%. DJ futs +20. FKLI seen within 1510-15 first with breakdw risk towards 1500 if fbm breaks 1525 support. FCPO SO -1% acid test fo bulls, playing defending again, 3200-3250. 3200 looks strong support at the current SO lvl.

Wednesday, May 04, 2011

Fcpo wrap...off lows, sideways stays but -ve tone





Steady at recent lower ranges. Strong PM, after a crossing back above 3250, keeps bear sidelines as mkt. well supported despite a weak PM opening. Like fkli, sideways and negative tone, below short term SMAs. But fcpo see no major sell signal till 3200 is breached.

Fkli wrap...selling on breakdw fear amid weak tech




Equity weak day as falling miners and property drag HS/SH near -2%. Europe -0.3%. Fbm.fkli manage to recoup almost 50% of losses to finish at mid range on profit take buying after Dj futs gains at +20 from -20 in late Asian hours. But technical outlook points to a danger of a breach below recent low near 1510 therefore fkli stays at wide discount. Until 1510 is breached, still sideways play.

Morning start...fkli soft 1526-28 fcpo soft 3250-60

Quiet in US/Europe, mostly sofer tone as falling CO, -1.5%, weighed. Regional, KOS and AUS near -0.5%. NK reopens Fri. FKLI seen steady first due to its built-in discount but cautious on whether fbm will hold above 30 would likely to keep bulls in check. 20-30 if fbm < 30 . FCPO SO -1%. , back to recent lower ranges, 3240+, but unlikely to see fresh breakdw today. Beliow 3270 is bearish.

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Fcpo wrap....fails to reverse negative outlook...



Quiet day for fcpo. Despite SO sharp gains, fcpo struggles with 3300 resistance and defending gains in late hours. Players seem cautious for a lack of followthrough after a strong US market Monday. Metals, energy off high in Asian hours. Silver -10%. Technically, no major signal today. A gap up but dwward bias till mkt regains 3300 on closing

Fkli wrap....still sideways....




regional mostly softer tone today with upside faces strong selling pressure, cautious on silver 10% drop. Dj futs around -20 to -30, all day. Europe flat. Fbmfkli maintain –ve outlook following last week 40-toppish outlook but no major breakdw yet. Fkli never really see upside, defensive and –ve tone after dipping under 30 in late AM session. Risk of 1510 play if fbm finishes under 1530.

At a glance..BMD Apr turnover.....-22% mtm

A quiet Apr11 after registering record vol in Mar , thanks to FCPO. In the first 4 months, FCPO represent 70% of BMD turnover.


At a glance...Apr11 performance...silver ripe for short ?




Commodity storng run in second half of Apr after US Fed reinforces idea of ultra-low R% environment till 2012 US$ fall, pushing commodity higher.


Morning start....fkli firm 30-35 fcpo strong 3300+

DJ/Europe/Commodity strong Fri but weak Mon. Net net higher mkt. Regional +ve on Mon on NK +1.6% gains. FKLI seen steady above 30, 30-35 in early trades with upside-bias if fbm> 35, attacking 40 resistance. FCPO SO +2%. 3300-3350. upward -bias if > 3270 and intra day bullish if > 3300