Friday, April 29, 2011

Fcpo wrap....steady at 2-week low...







Back to lower ranges but no breakdw or 3200-test today despite sharp SO losses. Maybe profit take buying ahead of long weekend after droping more than RM100 this week. Mkt remains sideways but fresh leg dw towards 3100 if 3200 fails next week. Negative tone till mkt regains 3300 psychological level.

Fkli wrap..keeping upward-bias tone for next week





Sideways again. Steady above 30 is good enough for bulls as mkt is not expected to make strong run up ahead of long weekend. Both fbm.fkli end the week with 40–toppish outlook, ranging within 20-40 for most part of the week. Moving to 40-60 range next week ? If breakout above 40, yes. Above 30 is upward bias.

Morning start...fkli firm 1533-35 fcpo bearish 3210-20

DJ +70, continuation of strong DJ, GOLD, weak US$ trend. Europe positive tone near +1%. Regional mostly flat at mom. NK holiday. GOLD continues to create fresh record highs after crossing 1500 mark. CO flat. FKLI, enough to sustain above 30 but making attempt at 40 ? Bullish tone if aobve 35. FCPO SO -3%, as U.S. grain futures sank Thursday as improving global
weather forecasts raised hopes for larger harvests. Maybe kneejerk under 3200 in opening trades but 3200-3250 trading range. Late selling expected if mkt stays under 3280. Bearish week ahead likely.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Fcpo wrap....sideways after follow though selling in PM

Early gains on profit take buying on SO strength but fails to sustain upward momentum as selling emerges in PM after SO off highs of +1%. Tehcnically, not much today as price remains within Wed's ranges. Below 3300 is -ve with fresh -ve tomorrow if 3380 is breached. No major reversal seen till fcpo regains 3350 resistance.


Fkli wrap....barely in +ve zone thanks to fbm resilience

Fbm strong closing, now aiming for upbeat weekly closing near 40. Regional mostly lower on selling in PM. Europe/Dj futs flat. Fkli range trading and quiet but maintains an upward tone despite yesterday's poor actions. But both likely toppish at 40 this week. Fbm profit take sell ahead of long wkend after a 4-day winning streak. Above 1530 is +ve.


Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Fcpo wrap....back to testing 3200 again

A closing under 3300 for the first time in a week on SO leads. Strong chance to re-test recent lower ranges again, 3200. But mkt does look like sideways play for the week, 3200-3400, fluctuating between recent lower n upper band without trend, range bound play.

Fkli wrap....no follow through +ve effect...

Strong reversal in PM as HS/SH dip into –ve area as fears of tightening re-surface after sharp gains in AM trades. From +1% to -0.5%. Fbm.fkli suffer selling under 1530, kneejerk near 20 but manage to regain mid grounds in the end. Technically, bulls find same toppish tone at the same resistance. A closing above 30 would ignite strong days ahead but it seems everything remains sideways.

Morning start...fkli firm 1532-35 fcpo soft 3310-20

DJ +115, Europe +1%. Commodity quiet amid a lack of fresh US$ weakness but remains firmer tone , near flat. Regional +1%. Fkli trying to secure 30-40 range today. Lower range in early trading and upper band if fbm > 32. FCPO SO -0.4%. Back to 3300 support. Intra-day bearish if < 3290. Otherwise it looks like range trading 3300-3350 again.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Fcpo wrap...escape fresh bearish signal but still -ve day

Strong bounce off critical support of 3300, partly thanks to SO recovering some of it losses from -1.6% to -0.7% in late Asian hours While no fresh –ve signal, still above 7SMA, fcpo remains -ve this week till it regains 3360 mark. A closing under 3300 is strong bearish signal

Fkli wrap....strong 20 support, back to resistance aleady ?

Fbm.fkli see poor start on regional losses but strong finish as Europe posts +0.5% and DJ futs recoups early losses to trade +20 in late Asian hours. Both survive a fresh dwtrend call under 1520 depsite playing defensive in AM and early PM session. 62% vol from roll ahead of expiry. Sideways remains, 20-40 flip flopping between +ve and -ve bias tone but no major trend. Regional weak on property amid fear of tightening call in Hongkong n China.

Morning start...fkli soft 1522-24 fcpo soft 3350+

DJ -25 mixed tone ahead of Fed. Commodity off Mon's Asian highs. CO -1%. GOLD -0.5%. Regional mixed. NK -1% on strong yen. Fkli likely 20-defensive today, maybe strong RM will keep it above 20 but under 25 is dwward-bias and a closing under 20 could spark fresh leg dw interest. FCPO SO -0.7% back to 3300-3350 range ? Upside seen limited, a breach of 3340 support would see selling presure targeting at least 3310-20

Monday, April 25, 2011

Fcpo wrap...missing 3400...quiet, cautious on RM

Lack of upside despite strong commodity tone. Probably concern over a stronger RM effect put players at the sidelines. RM under RM3 vs USS$. Fcpo suffers losses but in +ve zone, above short term SMAs. “Test 3400” scenario remains as fcpo stays above 3350. 3300-3400 is neutral to bias tone but no major trend.





Fkli wrap..quiet and sideways.....

A quiet day, most mkt flat waiting for US to reopen. Plus, HS holiday today. Sentiment +ve on DJ futs +20 tone but no big moves today.

Morning start...fkli firm 1522-25 fcpo firm 3380+

Firmer start ahead of US opening after a long weekend, leads by commodity. DJ futs +15. Regional near +0.5%. Commodity near +15. GOLD at fresh record, CO at fresh mutiple years highs. FKLI sideways seen but firmer tone at upper band of 20-30 with 20 as the immediate support. Cautious if fbm remains under 25. FCPO SO +0.7% , seen testing 3400 resistance. Support is raised to 50.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Fcpo wrap...going higher for major resistance near 3500

Strong gains on tech breakout scenario despite quiet external amid holiday mood. Bullish closing for the week, making a re-visit towards recent highs highly probable. Immediate support is raised to 3300 from 3280 for 3000-3400 play in the early part of next week

Fkli wrap...bulls playing defensive again....

Weekly +ve but poor tech closing, struggling near short term SMAs. Well supported around 1510 this week but yet to escape bears grip amid weekend profit take sell. Upward-bias if above 20, targeting 40-breaking for fresh upward momentum. Week tone on Mon could drag mkt towards recent lows, 1500-1510.

Morning start...fkli firm 1528-30 fcpo firm 3310-30

DJ +50 , extends run on strong earnings. Europe mostly higher, +0.5% . But regional off to a softer start. NK -0.5%. Commodity firmer tone but quiet. FKLI profit take pressure seen above 30 lvls today. Dwside is likely to be suported at 20. Upward bias if fbm > 25, maintaining +ve posture for next week. FCPO SO flat. Another 3300-3350 range play?. Upward bias tone if above 3300, targeting a breakout above 3350.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Fcpo wrap....flat all day....bullish as >3300

Very tight range. Tech +ve outlook help to keep fcpo steady despite SO remains near flat line all day. Strong CO probably also lend a hand in keeping fcpo above 3300. Waiting for the next incentives to test 3400. Upward bias if > 3280.

Fkli wrap...no party for bulls, mild setback

Firmer but toppish AM and Fbm faces selling pressure in PM, pulling fkli under 30 too, causing fkli a weak closing and reinforcing its sideways tone for the rest of the week after two day of rebound . This week’s rebound tone remains alive if manages a closing above 20 tomorrow. Regional +1%, Europe +0.1%. DJ futs +50

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Fcpo wrap...testing resistance for fresh upside tone



Ready to test major resistance near 3500 if manages a closing above 3300 this week. And so seems the case if can cross above 3330 tomorrow. Strong support is raised to 3250. Bullish if above 3300.

Fkli wrap...from support to testing resistance



The dwgrading of US debt fails to dent DJ mode overnight. Therefore regional on come-back mode after Tue’s selloff. Strong tech earnings and commodity prices lead mkt higher across the board today. Europe near +2%. Fkli takes premium stance on strong external while fbm catching up. Can clear all short term SMAs, near 40s this week ? Maybe not this week but at least already escape fear of a breakdw towards 1500. Sideways and upward bias if above 20.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Fcpo wrap...strong bounce near 3200 support

Another attempt near 3200 support and so far so good for bulls. Negative tone in early trading on weak equity and crude oil prices but firmer SO tone give bulls some support. Strong bounce from lows again. However, danger of breakdw looms till mkt regains at 3300 lvl.

Fkli wrap....back above 20 in last mins buying

Firmer Europe,0.5%, keep fbm.fkli above 1520 in late trading. No breakdw scenario yet but must recapture 30 resistance b4 turning upward bias

Morning start...fkli weak 1515-20

DJ -1% after Standard and Poor's cut its long-term outlook on U.S. debt to negative. Europe -2%. 8.30 Regional -15. DJ futs -20. Commodity mostly higher. GOLD at record high near 1500. CO flat. FKLI seen 10-20 range, below 20 is bearish, reinforcing 1500-1520 this week.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Fcpo wrap...quiet, holding pattern .....

Quiet, steady, manage to fend off bears pressure as SO gains tempt some profit take buying after taking a beating last week. But, bears in control, targeting a fresh leg dw towards 3000-3200 range. Bulls fortune will improve if mkt crosses back above 3300 this week.

Fkli wrap....steady but breakdw danger looms...

Strong start after Swak election, comforting note that BN regains 2/3 majority. But, prices sharply off highs on weak tone in PM on HS/DJ cue, banking stocks weak as fear of rising R% emerges. No breakdw today is already a plus for bulls, 20-40 is range trading. Short term dwtrend continues till mkt recaptures 40 resistance.

Morning start...fkli firm 1516-19 fcpo firm 3230-50

DJ , Europe +0.5% Fri. But Asian cautious start amid higher crude oil prices, most mkt flat except CO +1%. FKLi unlikely to reverse is recent dwtrend tone today, defensive and risk towards 1500. Below 1520, is fresh sell signal this week. FCPO SO -0.1%, weak tone continues but profit take buying at 3200 today after a 4-day-RM180 losing streak ? Below 3300 is sell on strength mkt.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Fcpo wrap....last min breakdw under 3300..bearish

Bears keeping the pressure on, targeting a weekly closing under 3300. Mkt dips under 3300 in the last 5-mins of trading after hovering near 3310-30 mostly. Profit take buying is likely to keep fcpo floats above 3250 this week. Below 3300 is fresh bearish tone targeting 3100-3300

FKli wrap...back to lower ranges. and in sideways range









Fbm.fkli erase yesterday gains as bears take control for a lack of external +ve to encourage follow through after Wed’s strength to reverse short term dwtrend. A closing under 20 will create fresh selling pressure next week towards 1470. Regional -0.5% tone, DJ futs -10 and Europe also near -0.5%.








Morning start...fkli firm 1530-35 fcpo weak 3330-40

DJ +7, Europe +1% overnight but DJ futs n regional take softer tone. DJ futs -2. Regional near -0.5%. Commodity mixed, no big moves. CO +0.5%. GOLD flirting near record high. FKLI 25-40, upward bias first 30-35. FCPO SO -0.5%, fight for direction continues. 3300-3350 range in early trading, defensive start but 3300 looks secure at the current SO lvl.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Fcpo wrap...back to bears favor but looks sideways for the week

Quiet day. Back to bears favor. Difficult time for bulls, the only consolation is mkt is still above 3300. Risk of deep leg dw re-emerges if 3300 fails to sustain this week. Below 3350-60 is dwward-bias.

FKli wrap....more bounce for the rest of the week...


-big swing, tech selldw in AM but major bounce especially in PM as regional reverse early AM weakness, -0.5% to finish high near +1% - no major reasons. Technically, Fbm.fkli seen bottoming out for the week more bounce but unlikely to turn uptrend this week, just sideways 20-40. Positive tone if above 20.

Morning start...fkli firm 1520+ fcpo weak 3330-40

DJ -120, Europe near -1.5% amid a rash of pessimistic U.S. economic growth forecasts. Feb trade activity dw, analyst fear of weak 1Q, IMF dwgrades US/JAPAN GDP. 8.40 DJ futs +33, regional rebound tone, +0.5%. Commodity tumbles on US factor. CO -3.5%, single day % drop in 2-mth, GOLD softer, flat. FKLI breakdw risk, 1500-10, remains but firmer toen in opening trades first, 20-25 if fbm steady above 25.But no major upside seen till fbm above 30. Bearish if udner 20, especially fbm. FCPO SO -2%, big test for bulls as prices heading towards recent major support lvl. Below 3350 is bearish.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

At a glance : MPOB Mar10 data...


mtm > Mar11 > Production +30%, Export +10%, Stock +9%

Fcpo wrap....blah blah blah day ....back n forth tone

still in sideways range, the fight for breakout of 3300-3400 continues. Commodity sharp reversal today drags fcpo under 3400 again but stays above short term support lvl. Below 3380 is -ve.

FKli wrap.. another selloff on regional weakness

equity extends selloff in a big way too amid Japan nuclear crisis newly Chernobly status and HK warns “too much lending”. Plus, weak commodity prices drag resources stock. Regional near -2% while Europe/DJ near -1%. Fbm.fkli also hit with tech short term bearish outlook but support this week at 20+ if external steady tomorrow. Too late for position sell, knee jerk sell yes towards 1500. But bounce is likely towards the weekend.

Morning start...fkli firm 1536-40 fcpo weak 3380-3400

DJ flat ahead of 1Q earnings. Europe softer near -0.5%. Commodity slump 8.30 DJ futs -20, KOS -0.5% drag dw by NK -1.5% , following news of the fire and reports that Japan plans to raise the assessment of the nuclear crisis to "level 7", the same as the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. CO -2.5%. GOLD maintains strong footing, near -0.5%. FKLI firm at opening trades amid wide discount but likely dwtrend tone continues till mkt crosses back above 50. 25-40 . FCPO SO -2%, another fight at 3400 psychological lvl. Below 3380 is bearish, targeting 3350-3400 range

Monday, April 11, 2011

Fcpo wrap....higher but cautious all day....


-a jump start as commodity continues it strong run since late last week on weak US$ vs Euro and inflation bet. But fcpo mostly cautious, off highs and profit selling pressure in PM mostly, struggling near 3400 support instead of attacking 3470-3500. Still, an upward-bias mkt if above 3380, and above 3500 is strong bullish signal.

Fkli wrap...Fri's toppish ..Mon's selldown...

fbm profit take sell from get go to the end, lead by GENTING, PCHEM. A lack of strong external positives keep fkli at wide discount. Regional mixed and softer tone. Europe/Dj futs flat. Tech selling under 50 too and fresh pressure going forward amd a closing under 7SMA support, reinforcing a pullback tone after the recent run from 1470. Year-high sayonara targeting 30-50 lower range first if mkt under 50.

Morning start...fkli firm 1553-55 fcpo strong 3450-70

Equity mixed tone. DJ -20 while Europe +1% Fri. Commodity strong run. 8.30 DJ futs +40. Regional flat, mixed. Commodity +1% to +2%. GOLD +1% CO +1.5% FKLI reducing wide discount but dw risk till fbm regains 60 resistance. Bearish if fbm under 55. targeting 40. FCPO SO +2% , 3400 will be an easy job, tug of war near 3450-70 band and a chance to test 3500. Above 3400 is bullish.

Friday, April 08, 2011

Fcpo wrap...bulls comeback...ready to attack 3400 again


-lucky for fcpo bulls as breakdw fears diminish on strong reversal signal today. Price return to week’s high lvls as commodity rallies today with metals at record high while CO at 30-mth mths on inflation bet and weak US$ vs Euro. Above 3400 is bullish week ahead, testing upper band or 3400-3500 range.

Fkli wrap....daily sucks..but weekly +ve


-profit taking dominates despite +ve external factors. Regional/DJ futs +0.5%. Europe near +15 on commodity stocks. Fkli see bears selling under 55 support, weaker than expected. With no 70 today, mkt needs to break above 60 to revive recent momentum, targeting 60-80 range. Uptrend remains but a closing under 50 on Monday is bad news for bulls.

Morning start...fkli firm 1558-61 fcpo weak 3300+

DJ -17, after Japan was hit with another major earthquake and the price of oil rose above $110 a barrel. Europe -0.5% 8.25 All quiet, near flat,mixed again. Focus in commodity and FX....maybe. CO above 110 mark up 1%. GOLD scaling record high, aiming 1500. FKLI follow through tone targeting 65, if fbm stays above 60. Knee jerk 70 as fbm is seen profit taking near 70, if any. Above 57 is uptrend for next week. FCPO SO -0.8%, tug of war at 3300 and not looking good for bulls. Below 3320 bearish tone, targeting 3250.

Thursday, April 07, 2011

Fcpo wrap....back to bears camp.....

Big setback for bulls after trying so hard this week. Not that mkt is bearish yet, but bulls are going back to square one. Negative closing, below 3350. Bears are likely to go offensive tomorrow to keep prices near 3300 for a possible selloff next week back to year low lvls. Bulls objective is lowered from 3400 to 3350.

Fkli. wrap....tech fresh buy signal....

external mixed, quiet but fbm uptrend all day after a gap up opening, gradually climbing higher b4 a 2p preclosing push to finish at day’s high. Sarawak election? , strong RM ? Technically, bullish closing. above 60. But major upside only expected next week, targeting 50-80 in early part of the week, up from around 30-60 this week

Wednesday, April 06, 2011

Fcpo wrap...waiting for direction ...


same pattern, sideways and toppish but bulls manage to pull it off again, preventingfresh sell signal. A long wait for strong external cue to break above 3400. Testing upside mode if mkt remains above 3340

Fkli wrap....hold above 7SMA...eager to move higher


Sideways within Tues range but off lows raises upward moves potential. Only setback is fbm remains in –ve outlook. More convincing if both cross above 55. Until fbm regains 60, cautious with no major selling force if stays above 7SMA. Equity mkt firmer +0.5%, metals, gold/silver record high.Yen at 6-mth lows vs US$, US$ at 6-mth lows vs Euro. RM stagnant for almost a week on BNM intervention near 3.0250.

Morning start...fkli firm 1550-52 fcpo soft 3350-60

DJ -6, Europe mixed, flat. All quiet. Off highs after Fed minutes raised speculation that the U.S. central bank could raise rates later this year amid rising inflation. 8.30 DJ futs +7. Regional firm tone, flat. NK +50 on weaker yen. Commodity mixed GOLD +1% at record high on inflation fear following Fed statement. CO -0.2%. FKLI same defensive play till 9.30 and 1550 seems a good support. Tight range in early trades 50-55. Above 50 is intra-day +ve. 43-60 daily range. Upside limited till strong cues from HS. FCPO SO -0.2%, another test for bulls, same range again 3350-3400 ?? Below 3380 is intra day -ve.

Tuesday, April 05, 2011

Fcpo wrap...moving away from dwtrend outlook

Bulls avoid dwtrend signal but remains toppish this week yet. Prices recover in late PM session after profit take sell pressure when mkt fails to cross above 3400 mark in opening trades. Technically, fcpo escapes being stuck in recent dwtrend scenario. Sideways going forward and upward bias if above 3330. A closing above 3400 would create fresh upside momentum in the short term.

Fkli. wrap...fbm profit take first...

-another quiet day with profit take activities as HS/SH closed for tomb-cleaning day. Regional mixed tone while Europe/Dj pointing to a weaker Tue. more pullback is expected towards 1540, critical support for bulls to maintain recent upward momentum. Below 1555 is trading sell

Morning start....fkli softer 53-55 fcpo softer 3360-80

All quiet yesterday-both equity and commodity. DJ +23, Europe mixed, flat. regional softer tone, -0.2%. SH n HS clsed for holiday today. Commodity, flat to softer tone. FKLI 50-60 range, likely test support 50 first. Without external +ves, unlikely to see sustain gaisn above 60. FCPO SO -0.2% , no external encouragement to test 3400, likely 3350-3400 again. Upwar-bais till 3360 support is breached.

Monday, April 04, 2011

Fcpo wrap....testing 3400 resistance....


-like Fri, stuck in +ve band on SO gains but struggles to break 3400 resistance. Still, a day that favors the bulls as 3340-50 support stays. A taste of 3400 this week is likely to put fcpo back into +ve territory, targeting 3500. Major support is 3300-10.

Fkli wrap... back to high on on last 5 mins buying


fbm strong gains but finish flat, profit take selling when fbm above 1560 today after stong gains last week. Regional steady, mostly higher, HS +350. Europe/Dj futs firm tone in late Asian hours. Fkli plays catching up after Fri’s wide discount. Not calling off year-high target this week yet, however danger of pullback towards 7SMA first b4 approaching year-high on fbm’s poor closing. Below 1560, cautious tone

Morning start...fkli frim 1547-50 fcpo firm 3360-70

DJ +50, Europe near +2% Fri, bullish tone heading into April 8.30 DJ futs -2. Regional higher,. NK+1% KOS flat. Commodity +ve tone, near +1% FKLI attempts to regain 50 mark and to catch with fbm if fbm can steady above 1550 in early trading. Bullish tone if above 46, reinforcing a higher trading band of 40-70 this week. Fbm seen at the lower band of 50-60. FCPO SO +0.4%. No immediate danger of falling under 3300 but not enough either to push fcpo out of bears grip. Danger for bulls if mkt dips under 3340 today as it will confirm Fri's toppish outlook as set a move back towards recent support lvl again this week.

Friday, April 01, 2011

Fcpo wrap...ends of rebound ? ..resistance holds

-test short term resistance and not very successful. A weak opening Monday could set mkt back to the recent lower ranges. 3300-3400 neutral sideways. A breakout would decide the next course. Below 3300 is strong sell signal next week, anticipating a resumption of recent dwtrend, towards 3000. To the upside, no strong buy signal till mkt regains 3380, targeting 3500.

Fkli wrap...bullish finish...aiming 50-80 range

-fbm strong start, steady for most of day, just under 1550 b4 a pre-closing jump of 5p, to finish the week on bullish tone. 4-day winning streak of 41p, surpassing last week 7-day -23p streak. Fkli profit take pressure dominates. Regional strong, on HS leads again, +300. DJ futs and Europe point to strong Fri, near +1% Fresh upper trading range of 50-80 if mkt can sustain above 50 on Monday, targeting 50-80. Otherwise, 30-50 pullback first b4 making attempt at year-high….maybe in the second week of Apr. Above 50, bullish.

At a glance:..BMD record vol ..on FCPO big surge

FCPO Mar's vol up 40% from Feb as volatility reaches year highs to date. While, FKLI +16%. BMD 1Q11 at 2.2 million lot up 50% from the same Q last year.

At a glance : Mar11 performance and ytd %

FCPO and SO going separate way...??

Morning start...fkli firm 40-45 fcpo strong 3370+

DJ -30, in small moves ahead of job data. Very strong 1Q despite geopolitical turmoil thanks to loose monetary policy and anticipation of recovery in the job mkt. 8.15 DJ futs +30. Regional mixed, flat, near +/- 0.2%. Commodity strong run on the last day of 1Q, +2%. FKLI -profit take pressure seen but maintains +ve tone, above 36. But a closing under 40 would see pullback first towards 7SMA b4 attempting 80 lvl. FCPO SO +2% on USDA bullish inventory data for gains product. Jump start and 3350-3400 range. 3400 resistance not easy to break this week, tug of war likely. Above 3340 is bullish closing.