Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Fcpo wrap...fresh year...last 30sec profit take sell...



Last few seconds selling pull fcpo from 30s to 10s.
Record high but hamper by profit take activities. Still, high expectation for a strong Dec. Fresh uptrend is likely to emerge, 3400-3700. All goes well if fcpo stays above 3300 this week.

Fkli wrap...fail to reverse dwtrend tone....SH drag..

NK strong in Nov on weaker Yen. Most sideways. SH retreats on tighthening policy after a very strong Oct mth. Fbm suffers pullback after hitting record high early Nov.






Fbm.fkli finish the mth with technically –ve bias tone. The good news for bulls is that mkt is still above 1480 therefore 1500 remains viable. SH big fall in AM, pulling the rest lower but fbm fails to recover in PM like others.

A sideways to correction mth after failing to clear record high resistance in early part of this mth. This “double top” pressure will continue to haunt in Dec

Morning start...fkli soft 1495+ fcpo firm 3370-90

DJ i40, pulldown by Europe -2% fall on worries of Ireland contagion effect.

8.30 : DJ futs -11. Regional seen lower tone, -0.5%. Commodity mostly firmer, near +1%.

fkli : seen steady 90-00. 1500 looks tough resistance today unless external improves over the day. Above 95, is upward-bias.

fcpo :SO -0.5% , probably will trigger some profit take but fcpo is likely to stay uptrend, 3350-3400 range. Fresh tech buy is seen above 3400.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Fcpo wrap...ready for fresh year high...........?


Tech buy, above 3300, push fcpo far higher than SO.
Fcpo seems ready for 3400-3700 range in the coming weeks if can sustain above 3300 tomorrow.

Fkli wrap...major bounce after Fri's selloff...


First 30 mins of selling in fbm, probably kwailow. Thereafter , fbm.fkli recovery tone and surge higher into +ve territory in PM session as players takes Ireland bailout on positive note, taking cue from Europe +1% gains. Dj futs +80. Regional mostly higher in PM, HS +300.
Technically, another big scare for bulls as 1480 was breached in early trades. Strong bounce today but fkli remains sideways zone and must fight back above 1500 to convince fresh bulls.

Morning start...fkli firm 1482-85 fcpo firm 3280-90

DJ -90, Europe -0.5%. All losses well within expectations.

8.30 : DJ futs +50. Regional strong on weaker local currency. KOS +0.5% NK +1%. Commodity mostly higher near +0.5% .


fkli : with firmer regional tone, fkli seen higher amid tis wide discount to fbm but unlikely to break major resistance lvl. 80-95 range

fcpo : SO +0.7%, seen testing 3300 again. Weaker RM could boost buying . Above 3250 is upside bias.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Fcpo wrap...this week -52 but near reversal lvl ...


Steady, bulls holding, not letting go last days effort, unlike fkli. Prices manage to recover from a gap-dw opening in PM following Korean news but commodity mostly muted. Weak RM also support.

Fcpo moves within Thus’s range, no fresh moves, thin trade. Upward-bias if > 3230, targeting a reversal of short term dw trend line with a crossing back above 3300. Bears take charge if under 3200, aiming for the breakdw mark of 3100.

Fkli wrap...this week -19.5...bears grip..thanks to kimchi..


Major reversal in PM…again no thanks to Korea conflict fresh fire news. Already a weak sentiment after failing to clear or sustain above 1500 and a so-so PChem (5.71/5.72/5.30/5.31/+2%) outing, selling piles up in PM. Regional dips into -1% after a quiet AM session. Europe -1% Dj futs -50.

Fkli see kneejerk selling under 90 and late selling too amid poor chart outlook despite almost 10p discount to fbm.

Technically, fbm.fkli fail to extend a 2-day strong momentum that could have reversed the recent dwtrend outlook but instead reinforcing this week short term dwtrend tone amid a failure to clear resistance. 1480 remains a critical support. Otherwise, 40-80 range play.

Morning start...fkli firm 1499-02 fcpo firm 3280+

Europe near +1%.

8.25 : DJ futs -4. Regional firmer tone on follow through, around +0.3% . Commodity firmer tone too, no moves.

fkli : chance to cross back above and if so reversing the dwtrend line, for 1470-1510 sideways play till the next development. Will fbm breaks 1500 resistance ?...above 1498 is positive tone. trading range see 97-03 till fbm >1500.

fcpo :SO +0.2%, fcpo dwside seen limited for 3240-3300 range play if not a breakout above 3300 on tech follow through .

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Fcpo wrap....strong bounce ...bulls more secure now




A big gap up triggers short covering as prices seen nearing 3300. Upside momentum runs on technical +ve factor, amid a lack of SO’s cue – Thanksgiving holiday.

Like fkli, fcpo regains sideways tone, with no major sell signal seen for the week and also minimizing a risk of breakdown in the near term The question now is whether it can reverse it short term dwtrend sentiment. Above 320o , is "test resistance" mode, therefore upward-bias tomorrow.

Fkli wrap....last 15 mins buying push to 96-00 range


A quiet trading after a big gap up opening on DJ overnight triple-digit gains. Steady to firmer tone all day as regional post gains ahead of US holiday.

Fbm.fkli making further step towards major resistance lvl,, with a late push towards 1500 , probably of feel good factor ahead of PChem listing tomorrow.
Technically, above 1490 is +ve,with attempt seen to reverse its dwtrend outlook.

Morning start....fkli strong 1490+ fcpo strong 3200+

DJ +151, .S. stocks rallied more than 1% Wednesday after a huge drop in unemployment claims signaled some signs of life in the depressed labor market...CNN. Europe +1%.

8.15 : DJ ftus -2. Regional +0.5%. Commodity mostly stronger overnight. CO near +4% GOLD flat but firm tone.

fkli : 85-95 range with strong overnight external , fkli is seen taking 90-95 range initially. Upward-bias till 1490 is tested but retreats later. Strong resistance seen at 97-00.

Fcpo : SO +1.5% another attempt at 3200 resistance, tug-of-war. Above 3150 is upward-bias, correction tone.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Fcpo wrap....just hovers around...sell on stregth tone




Quiet day, higher on recovery mode but cautious and not much follow through above resistance lvl, instead sell-on-rebound.

Technically, no fresh signals as mkt sideways and 3100 remains a big risk till crosses above the uptrend line.

Fkli wrap...breakdown first then recovery....




Survives morning knee jerk selling in AM and takes upper band in PM as recovery continues across all asset after a selloff yesterday on Korean news. Regional mostly 1%.

Fkli fails to sustain above 90 amid Europe/DJ late fall. DJ turns -10 from +50 while Europe flat from +0.5% in opening trades.

Technically, candle looks strong today, back above 1480 and sharply off lows thanks to a surprising big gap dw opening but both mkt remains dwtrend.. Bulls must fight for 1480 support this week. Otherwise, 1450-80 range next week. Upside looks tough this week unless GLC gives “face” value push ahead of Petronas Chemical listing on Fri.


Morning start..fkli soft 1480-85 fcpo firm 3100-3120

DJ -142, Stocks ran into a wall of worry Tuesday as violence erupted on the Korean peninsula, concerns about Europe's debt crisis expanded and the Federal Reserve issued a dour economic outlook. Europe -2%.

8.10 : DJ futs +24. Regional weak near -2% , as NK and Kospi first reaction on Koeran hostility news. NK was clsed for holiday yesterday while KOSPI was clsed for the day b4 the breaking news. Safe haven play, GOLD +1%. CO -0.5%

fkli : seen steady b4 fbm opens. while dwside remains,80-90, strong chance for a bounce, targeting 90-95 range. Bearish if fbm<87, targeting 80.

fcpo : SO +0.5% not enough to offset fcpo -ve tone. Bears will aim for a breakdw under 3100. Immediate upside target is 3150.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Fcpo wrap....fresh breakdw risk emerges...


Like equity, selloff in PM session , negating bulls hardwork in AM . Despite initial selling pressure, they manage to push it back into +ve territory b4 lunch break. But, all plan goes haywire with the Korea news.

Technically, short term downtrend, with 2900 insight in 3100 does not hold. To reverse its short term trend, fcpo must crosses back above 3270 this week.


Fkli wrap...big black candle...deja vu...



Two major selling event. AM on HS/SH cue, -1% amid fear of government effort to control property prices . Already heavy pressure after dipping under 1500 in AM session, bulls suffer another blow as news of “war” between South Korean and Kim made headlines in PM. Selling tone all afternoon.

Technically, a meltdown under 1500 for the second time in less than 2 weeks. If 1480 holds, 1500 is still in play this mth but looks likes a dw trend targeting 1450, under the dwtrend line for the rest of the mth ..if not for the rest of 2011.

Mornign start...fkli softer 1503-05 fcpo firmer 3200+

DJ -20 on banks weakness but off lows, of -140, on tech srength. Europe -1% on concerns about Ireland.

8.15 : DJ futs -15. Regional softer. KOS -0.25. NK clsed for holiday. Commodity mixed to firmer tone. Everything seems quiet.

fkli : likely to maintain 00-10 play but maybe dwward biasf or a start. Below 1505 is -ve tone but dw side seen limited unless fbm < 1500.

Fcpo : SO +0.4% giving fcpo a chance to recoup some of Mon's losses. Above 3200 is +ve bias for 3200-3250 range play with the current SO rate. While major sell signal is seen if < 3180, targeting 3110-20

Monday, November 22, 2010

Fcpo wrap...SO offset last week strong recovery...


Outperform and steady in PM but playing catching up with SO losses in late PM session. Strong sell momentum in PM after breaking AM’s low of 3230+. All the way down here onwards with further selling under 3200 psychological lvl.

Maintaining a dwtrend mkt, < 7SMA, amid a lack of follow through today, no thanks to SO -4% losses. Can 3100 hold for second time? Defensive till mkt recaptures 3300 mark again.




Fkli wrap....higher but lackluster


Fbm.fkli fail to sustain an early attempt to cross above 1510 and finish near day’s low. While regional mostly higher, cautious tone dominates after Hong Kong, HS -80, raises property tax following China +0.5% bank reserve hike last Fri.

Fkli upward bias but sideways stance till fbm > 1510. 1495-1500 seen as strong support this week.

Morning start..fkli firm 1505+ fcpo bearish 3320-50

8.35 : DJ futs +50. Regional around +0.5%.

Fkli : upward bias seen and test resistance 10-13 mode as long as fbm>1505.

Fcpo : SO -4% this is likey to drag fcpo back towards 3200s level.

Friday, November 19, 2010

Fcpo wrap...-27 this week but posftive sentiment



Profit take in AM, strong bounce in PM as SO extends it gains from +1% to +2% during the lunch break. Fcpo extends it recovery tone from yesterday to finish the week on +ve sentiment despite pressure from a selloff in the commodity class this week on strong US$

Looking to retest 3400 again but unless SO catches up, a breakout is not sustainable over a longer period. Above 3350 is bullish next week. Strong sell signal is seen if 3250 support fails to hold.

Fmkli wrap...+11 this week ...50% recovery..sidweways band



A good week for bulls, mkt manage to shake off left over selling from the previous week selloff to finish back above 1500. While still short of being bullish yet, bulls can take comfort that mkt has stabilize.

Fbm strong on MAYBANK. Regional mixed, cautious, pondering over China rate decision.

Fbm.fkli still sideways range but potentially looking for a long base with a “U” formation in mind as long as mkt stays above 1480. Above 1510 looks like a strong buy signals. .

Morning start...fkli strong 1500+ fcpo strong 3350-

DJ +170+1.6% as an early rally gained steam, following a strong debut by General Motors' stock. Overnight talk that the Irish government was close to accepting a bailout loan eased eurozone worries and sent global stocks soaring..CNN. Europe near +2%.

8.15 : DJ futs +12. Regional near +1%. Comodity +1% too. Asian FX mised, not much movement.

fkli : first attempt at short term resisitance lvl since the selloff. 1495-1505 with upper band bias. upward-bias unless fbm <1500.


fcpo : SO 1.6%, catching up with fcpo ? 3300-3350 looks "fair" but given fcpo recent mood swing, a move towards 3400 cannot be disounted but a breakout is unlikely....today. Above 3300 is bullish. Critical support at 3270.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Fcpo wrap...crazy buying spree...3250-3350 tomorrow


From a very bearish start to a very bullish finish. Thanks to SO recovery in the afternoon, from -5% to -2%, fcpo moves to higher ground of 3200-3250. At this point, fcpo seen fair to SO. But after fcpo crosses into +ve territory, buying spree starts
Above, 3250 is buy mkt. 3000-3050.

Fkli wrap....seen testing 1500 again....



Good holdiay break for bulls after all!
Fbm.fkli recover from early selloff as with regional.europe.dj futs especially in the afternoon. While fbm remains sluggish on GENTING, fkli takes upbeat tone, reversing Tues’ big discount amid regional strong bounce, +1% to +2%

Fbm.fkli remains in a trading sell area, below 1500, but stabilizing mode, 1490-1500. Looks like testing resistance tone for tomorrow as lower 80 seems strong support for this round of selling.

Morning start...fkli weak 1485+ fcpo bearish 3180-3200

Bearish Tues, recovery Wed. DJ flat Wed after a 180 plunge Tues. Europe near +1% ovenight.

8.15 : DJ futs +15. Regional firmer, +0.2%. Commodity lower tone on stronger US$. Pricing in CO -4% GOLD -1%.

FKLI : escapes yesterday regional -2% but -ve tone will prevail, maybe no breakdw under 80 amid fkli wide discount but likely to take 80 90 range unless fbm steady above 1500.

FCPO : SO -3.5% , fcpo seen near 3200 at the current SO rate. Target 3160 if 3200 fails. Upside target 3230.-60 range

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Fcpo wrap...late selloff under 3300




Like equity, players dump fcpo in PM with more selling after 3300 lvl breaks. Fcpo finish near critical support lvl about RM130 point off its high today. After today, fcpo is unlikely to turn upward-bias this week.

Below 3300 is bearish as risk of further pullback towards 3200 is high

Fkli wrap...all well till China selloff... a repeat of Fri




















PM selloff following China’s sudden fall of -4% after lunch break. Interest rate hike fear. Already toppish-like in AM session, players up their selling in afternoon on fresh selling signal under 90 and 87. But tks to fbm resilience and preclosing jump, fkli moves back near 90 but fkli sentiment –ve all day long even when fbm > 1500 in early trading.

Fkli wide discount -15p amid fbm “fake ??” perclosing and poor Europe/Dj futs indicator.








Regional mostly –ve, more losses in PM. Europe -1% DJ futs -40, Ireland bond default fear.

Below 1495 is –ve tone, danger of a breakdw towards 1450-1480 range.





Morning start...fkli firm 1498+ fcpo firm 3370-80

DJ +9 off highs. Europe strong near +1%.

8.30 : DJ futs -20. Regional softer tone , within -0.5%. Commodity lower tone but all seems directionless. Dollar strong against Asian FX since G20.

fkli : seems like a clueless day and maintaining sideways tone. fkli discount preference will continue till fbm > 1504 but dwside seen limited if fbm > 1500.

fcpo : SO +0.5%, enough to trigger a run towards 3400 again but may not be enough to sustain it. After all, fcpo already outperformed SO yesterday. Profit take seen ahead of holiday tomorrow. Above 3360 is bullish mkt.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Fcpo wrap....bulls ready to attack 3400 again...



Same support and strong bounce, maintaining an upward bias tone despite SO steep losses, -2%, on US$ strength. Fcpo keeps its head above 7SMA after 2 days of defensive play, indicating strong bargain and "desire" to resume its uptrend. .....no fresh bullish tone yet till > 3400 but watch out bears!
Immediate support is raised to 3360-70. Bulls are seen in driver seat this week if fcpo >3300.

Fkli wrap...mild recovery..but -ve tone remains



Still suffering from last Fri’s selldw hangover. Sell on strength tone. Fbm steady near 1500 but fkli prefers discount and mostly 1495+ Good news for bulls , no follow through signal today but out of the wood yet, defensive and likely sideways this week.

Regional mixed but no supply of +ve news, purely recovery mode after a big selloff.

Below 1500, targeting is 1480-1500 range. Must cross back above 1510 to negate last week ending bearish tone.

Morning start...fkli firm 1495+ fcpo weak 3320-30

DJ -90 , marginally better than expected, >-100. Europe mostly lower but no serious contagion effect from Asian dismal perofmance last Fri. Focus on Ireland bond rating and China performance today.

8.25 : DJ futs +11. Regional firmer tone,. NK +0.7% Commodity yet to recover from Fri's slump GOLD -2%. CO -0.5%. US$ dollar seen stronger against Asian currency.

fkli : recovery tone towards 1500 but cautious till fbm.fkli regain 1502. And fresh -ve if < 1490.

fcpo : SO -2%, -ve tone in early Asian hours. defensive play at 3300 first. Below 3330 is -ve mkt. Fcpo must cross above 3350 to initiate fresh upward momentum.

Friday, November 12, 2010

FCpo wrap...+162 this week....uptrend remains...


Commodity selloff amid dollar rebound but fcpo manages to find support towards the end of day, reducing its underperform lvl from -3% to -2%

Fcpo worse start than fkli but better finish than fkli. Fpco uptrend still alive as > 3300. But, fresh bull interest is only seen if fcpo regains 3400 mark. Immediate support is 3300, followed by critical support of 3270.

Fkli wrap..this week -24.5... the end of uptrend..


Already weak after yesterday, another selloff today no tks to China bearish tone. China possible interest rate hike, (usually announce on Sat ) and strong US$ rebound ahead of G20 meeting give excuse to lock in profits – commodity worst hits. Chine tightening policy is seen as cutting demand for global agri products.

Fbm.fkli see panic sell under 1500. Very ugly and bearish candle, multiple support breached, ending a 2 ½ mth uptrend run. Back to drawing board for bulls while bears take over the driver seat till mkts cross back above 1510+. Otherwise, the double-top effect will continue to scare buyers away.

If 1480 breaks, 1500 is history this mth, targeting dwside towards 1480-50 trading range.

Morning start...fkli weak 1510-12 fcpo firm..3420+

DJ -74, Stocks sold off at the open and never looked back Thursday after a disappointing outlook from Cisco Systems dragged on the technology sector all day....CNN. Europe -0.5%

8.25 : DJ futs -12. Regional mixed. NK -50/-0.5% but KOS +2%...face value as G20 host ? Commodtiy mixed. CO -1% GOLD +0.5%

fkli : weak tone and danger of a pullback towards 1500 if 1510 fails. Immediate resistance is lowered to 1515.

fcpo : SO +1.5% , 3400 is back to play on external strength while profit take will continue above 3400 this week. Above 3400 is upward bias. No major fresh selling seen if fcpo > 3370.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Fcpo wrap...profit take sell..



Like fkli, profit take tone but manage to claim fresh high on SO gains. Profit take activities above 3400 for the past 2 days. But no major selloff as SO remains very strong