Monday, August 30, 2010

Fcpo wrap...sailing towards 2600


Intra-day looks a bit toppish but bargains seen at lower end. Matching SO gains, Fcpo stays range bound at higher end, getting ready for a test at 2600 after MERDEKA break.
Above 2550 is a trading buy market but may find resistance at 2600, the 50% recovery point. With price cluster within SMAs, market is unlikely to make a direction soon, with a lot of push and pull first in a consolidation phase.




Fkli wrap...sailing for 1450...




Another strong run, extending its bull tone on DJ and regional strength, near +2%. Fbm stays above 1420 with strong support at 1420. Discounting its high of 1428 , on PET GAS one off gains, +30%, fbm stuck at 1420-24 range, the same range as Fkli's Sep after clearing 1420 resistance.

Above 1420 is bullish. Immediate support is raised to 1420 and strong support seen at 1410.



Morning start...fkli strong 1414-20 fcpo strong 2450-70

DJ +164, on smaller than expected 2Q GDP revision and Fed strong will to fight deflation in a statement on Fri. Europe +1%.


8.15 : DJ futs +20. Regional strong, 1% to 2%, on NK kead, as BOJ to hold meeting to talk on yen rise. Commodity strong, CO +2%.

fkli : immediate support is likely to raise to 1414-15 and fbm is seen attempting 20s range. fkli coudl retreat if fbm fails to cross above 1420 mark. but a buy mkt if > 1414

fcpo : SO +2% at 1-week as grains recover from early week lows on strong export. fcpo can expect to test it first big hurdle towards 2600 -the 2570 resistance. Above 2540 is a buy mkt with eyes on consolidation tone.

Friday, August 27, 2010

Fcpo wrap...-2 for the week but trading buy on rebound


Fcpo holding above 2500 after a selling from 2750 lvl. It finished the week on rebound mode and looks like a sideways and consolidation band , 2500-2600, next week.

While dwrisk is still greater as fcpo needs to break at least 2570 to reverse its dwtrend mode but not a big concern for bulls if fcpo stays above 2530, its immediate support.



fkli wrap...+24 this week...bull...to be continued...


Fbm.fkli finished on strong note on SIME gains, capping a strong week on good earnings report. DJ weaker tone failed to dampen mkt mood with Europe/regional mostly mixed for the week.

Technically, fbm.fkli brushed off Wed’s –ve signal, on DJ losses amid weak housing data but came back strongly the next day with buying above 1400, driven first by fbm’s strength. Not much of pullack and price remains above short term support line since a run from 1340.
This established 1400 as a support rather than resistance, setting the next course higher. This could translate to 1400-1450 range next week if mkt steady above1400 for start.

Morning start....fkli firm 1404-09 fcpo weak 2520-30

DJ -70 on selling under 10k mark but Europe +1%. It seems the fight is still out there for direction.

8.15 : DJ futs -7. Regional -0.5 to -1 %. Commodity mostly lower but mildly.

fkli : weak external but eyes on fbm feel good factor. Uptrend mkt but intra day sell with tight stop if fbm above 1408. or fkli > 1410. Downside seen limited at 1400+ while upside target 1417-20, cap by weekend profit take sell.

fcpo : SO -0.5%. Fcpo seen starting in intra-day neutral range of 2510-2530. To capitalise Thu's momentum, fcpo must take out 2535's 7SMA resistance. Otherwise, dwtrend remains intact and bears will act if fcpo drifts under 2510.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Fcpo wrap...testing short term resistance...7SMA


Like fkli, fcpo also rebounded sharply in PM, after a steady AM session , encouraged by SO gains for 2 consecutive days and tech buy above 2500. Fcpo crossed above 2500 shortly after PM opening bell. It triggered late buying activities that pushed fcpo to finish at day's high.

Fcpo managed to hold above 2480 lvl today, encouraging short covering activity but market remains dwtrend till it regains 7SMA. Positive if > 2500 as mkt is seen attempting to reverse recent dwtrend to consolidations phase, 2500-2570. New major sell force is only expected if fcpo near 2480-90 range.

Fkli wrap..what a comeback!!...back to 1420 target



Speechless…..massive cut loss buying following a late change of sentiment, with players rushing to catch up with fbm’s tone in the last 30mins of trading, triggering buystops lvl above 1403, despite earlier discount stance.

Fbm top performer among its peers today, with strong earnings taking centre stage. Regional mixed. Europe/DJ futs +ve tone in PM reinforced fbm’s earlier +ve mood and the turnaround occurred in PM with a crossing back above 1400 mark. Fbm stocks up across the board, 22 to 30.

A remarkable comeback after yesterday’s negative performance that put bulls on a defensive, making today’s reversal even sweeter and meaningful. A 1400-1410 range for tomorrow but a run towards 1420 is likely if 1410 resistance broken. Immediate support is raised to 1405.

Morning start....fkli firm 1395-97 fcpo soft 2480-90

DJ +20, barely, small recovery as mkt digested another set of weak housing data.Europe -1%.


8.15 : DJ futs +13. Regional +0.5%. NK leads as yen retreats on fear of BOJ intervention. Commodity still mixed this week, up and dw without a clear direction especially speculative-porne commodity. CO +1.5% GOLD +0.5%

fkli : seen taking the same range 1390-1400 with further dw risk if fbm < 1395. Suspect fbm would try to recover back above 1400. Negative tone if < 1400.

fcpo : SO -0.2% , bearish tone if fcpo opens under 2486, targeting 2440-50. Downtrend will continues but intra-day +ve if above 2490.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Fcpo wrap...bears attacking...reaching for 2400+...


2500 support gave way , reinforcing a move towards the lower red-line before stabilizing. Below 2500 is very bearish.
To reverse this current trend, fcpo needs to regain 7SMA , which is unlikely to achieve for the rest of the mth.




Fkli wrap....the end of recent run...



A poor fbm closing triggers fkli late selling despite manages to recover near 1400 just before 4.50 pm in a mostly –ve tone day that see fkli hitting the low of 1390 in early PM trading. It recovers on Europe signals but selling reemerges after fbm’s 4p dip in preclosing stage.

Europe/Dj futs steady after recent losing streak and occasionally testing +ve territory. Regional mixed but dwward –bias, strange personality this week – some very bad, some very resilient

To renew it recent uptrend, mkts need to take out 1405. but recent internal momentum is seen over and need to start afresh- depends very much on DJ rebound, if any.

Morning start...fkli weak 94-99 fcpo firm 2520-30

DJ -133 after a report showing showing a worse-than-expected plunge in existing home sales reignited fears about an economic slowdown. ..CNN. Europe finished near -2%. Mkt also spooked by strong yen - reverse carry trade ....risk off the book?

8.20 : DJ futs +18. Regional -1% . Commodity mixed, -0.7% to +0.7% day but seems quiet.


fkli : fbm.fkli survived a big test yesterday but a bigger test today. Hard to imagine upside. fkli is likely to trade 91-99 range on expectations that fbm retreat towards 1400. Negative and risk of a 10 to 15 points pullback is on the card if fbm < 1405. Above 1405, is trading buy.

fcpo : SO +0.7%, enough to sustain fcpo above 2500 ? . Yes for a start but unlikely to push fcpo back to "safe" zone , > 2530. However, fresh bearihs tone will come if 2495-2500 support fails to hold, targeting 2440+.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Fcpo wrap...fresh breakdown instead....





Weak commodity mkt except cocoa and coffee maybe. SO and CO slide continues

After a day pause and 2-day of resilient tone, fcpo takes another dive today in an event that could signal a move towards 2400 if 2500 is taken out tomorrow.
Toppish in early trades as SO weakness continues to drag and selling force turns into full force after 2530 support gives way.

Below 2530 is bearish and mkt needs to regain 7SMA resistance to offset today's bearishness. Next breakdown lvl is 2495.

Fkli wrap....overbought but sustain and still tech +ve...


Super Fbm, managing to maintain its winning streak to 8 despite poor external factors in PM. Europe -1% DJ futs -80. GENTING , AXIATA took control in PM. Fkli watching from a distance , taking discount stance and like yesterday mostly in and out 1400 lvl.

Technically, fkli still strong thanks to late buying activities, above 1390 is still a bull mkt.
It seems fbm really eager to pull away from 1400, targeting the 1400-1420 band., as long as fbm survive above 1400.

Morning start...fkli weak 1400+ fcpo weak 2540-50

DJ -30 , as a dismal economic outlook overshadowed earlier optimism fueled by takeover talk....CNN. Europe +ve, near ++0.5%.

8.20 : DJ futs -30. Regional -ve tone. KOS -1% NK -150/-1.5%. Commodity mostly lower. CO -1.5%. Ringgit near 2-year high.

fkli : following weak external, and no surprises from fbm, fkli is seen pulling back towards 1400 first and likely to take on 95-00 range with dwside risk dw to 88 if fbm.fkli trades in -ve territory.

fcpo SO -1% not helping fcpo bulls at all. 2530-2560 is seen as neutral range today but with weaker SO, fcpo will start on defensive side. 2530 is critical support while a breakout above 2560 would reinforce a rebound to 2600.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Fcpo wrap...ready for rebound.. 2570-2600 target

Commodity mostly quiet today but fcpo took equity bullish tone. Sentiment improved after early attempt to break support lvl failed, snapping a 5-day losing streak.

Fcpo resilient at 2530 support, looking for a rebound after last week’s steep losses. SO mostly near flat line, not much encouragement, therefore capping any significant gains that would change the chart bearish outlook, like beyond 2570.

Technically, fcpo regains back above the 30SMA support line but not under bulls grip yet till we see 2600. Long for rebound if above 2530.

Fbm wrap...yet another breakout higher....





A strong DJ futs and regional mixed tone offset DJ Fri losses effect. Fkli continued to strengthen on the back of bullish fbm – CIMB rose on earnings expectations, +3 index point, following MAYBANK feel good factor.

However, fkli was cautious above 1400 today – cut loss buying vs. short term bears selling -before a late push to day's high after fbm 4p jump in preclosng phase.



Expectation of a correction was raised last Thu but yet today’s action actually up the game towards 1400-20. Immediate support is raised to 1400 but above 95, mkt is still bullish, trading buy with tight stop.



Morning srart...fkli firm.. 1390-93 fcpo weak 2530-50

DJ -50, continued to suffer from weaker job data. Europe -1%


8.30 DJ futs +20. Regional softer tone, -0.5%. Commodity flat. Looks like a quiet day.

fkli : seens steady within 93-95 range on expectations that fbm will continue its climb towads 1400. Fbm bullish if >1395. fkli will take premium stance as long as fbm is > 1392-93 range.

fcpo : SO -0.2% lack of +ve signal means fcpo will be pressured by tech -ve. Below 2570 is a sell mkt but could well stuck in a daily neutral band of 2530-70. A breach of 2530 would resume its dwtrend towards 2500.

Friday, August 20, 2010

Fcpo wrap...-RM174...the final short term support

This week...daily % change...fkli +ve everyday, fcpo -ve everyday..



Fcpo failed to capitalize on yesterday’s +ve tone as players watched SO prices slump almost -3% overnight. So, trading sell tone set the pace again and finished low for few buyers ahead of the weekend.

After a 5-day losing streak, wiping out RM174, fcpo now at the last short term support lvl of 30SMA. Further weakness would reverse Jul’s uptrend rally, targeting 2300 as a fresh short term trend.



Fkli wrap...+28 this week...looks exhausted...


Fbm produced another strong day – financials lead again. Strong week, strong closing – 6 day winning streak. Regional mostly weaker tone, within -1%. NK worst on prospect of stronger yen, affecting exporters bottom line. Europe/DJ futs cautious, initially recovery mode from overnight slump but dip back near flat line in late Asian trading hours.

Like yesterday, fkli look “force” at the top end. Players getting cautious as mkt approaches 1400, all the way from 1340. Bullish tone but positive closing. Critical support is raised to 1380s, also the 7SMA.

After 1400, is 1440-50 band but do not foresee this happening till a pullback. More like second round run-up. We are still in the first round.

Morning start...fkli weak 87-90 fcpo weak 2570-2600

Making the first big move this week, Dj and Europe slump, almost -2%. DJ -144, Investors were hit with a triple whammy of bad economic news Thursday: manufacturing still stinks, more people are jobless...CNN

8.13 : Dj futs +7. NK the biggest loser, -150/-1.6% . Aust -1% Kos -0.5%. Commodity lower. CO -1.5%.

fkli : how strong is support ? is the startign theme. fkli is seen taking 85-90 range with expectation of a mild pullback in fbm back udner 90. fkli bulls are unlikely to give up till fbm < 85, targeting a full scale of correction towards 7SMA around 75s

fcpo : SO -0.4% . no encouragement for fcpo bulls but fcpo seen ranging within yesterday's range. Intra-day +ve if > 2570 but enough power to break 2600 ?

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Fcpo wrap....losing streak but coming to an end...


While still not out of the danger yet, fcpo built strong defence wall today. A weak opening on SO -1% loss but active bargain seen at the lower band of 2550-2600 range before buying in PM pushed the mkt near 2600, its breakout point for today.

Selling seen subsiding for the week ripe for a bound, 2600-40, but no big gains as bulls are unlikely to stage a comeback this week. Below 7SMA is still a trading sell mkt.

Fkli wrap...considered 1400 done deal already..?




Riding on fbm gains, fkli moves nearer to 1400 but cautious tone above 90 today. Regional mostly higher but losses steam in late trading hours. Europe.Dj futs flat to slightly minus.

Financials continue to give fbm a boost, CIMB takes over the lead role from MAYBANK, strong 2Q GDP data increases hope of further business deal in the future. FBM 5 day wining streak, +43.

Still waiting for trading sell mode or long at pullback as mkt is due for at least 10-15p adjustment. . First sign is when immediate support 1387 is breached or when fbm <>

Morning start...fkli firm 87-90 fcpo weak 2590-2600

DJ +9. europe -0.5%...all mixed.

8.25 : Dj futs +3/ Regional taking +ve mode, +0.5%. Commodity flat and mixed tone too. RM very strong today...foreign buyign bond or stocks ?

fkli : looks set to take on 85-90 range on expectation of fbm's strength. Above 85, bullish with potential of knocking on 1400 door. Weakness seen limited to intra-day moves but cautious if < 84.


fcpo : SO -1%. 2600 looks very vulnerable and risk of 2550-2600 play, 3-week low range. Below 2590 bearish.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Fcpo wrap...from bad to worse..






A continuation of selling under support lvl and no sign of stopping yet, 3 days losing streak, erasing RM108. Fcpo bulls continue to suffer for a lack of +ve external signal to offset internal tech bearishness. Buyers taking passive role.

Fcpo is yet to stabilize and still in bears grip and trading sell mode. The only consolation for bulls is 2600 support holds today. trading range is lowered to 2550-2650. Upside requires external stimulation.

Fkli wrap....30 mins to reverse the day -ve tone....




Fkli struggles with 1380 mark all day, in mostly –ve tone before a late crawl back – last 30 mins or so. Buying emerges and pushes fkli back to its intra-day high lvls set in AM opening. All these while Europe/DJ futs are churning out –ve signals, -1% and -13 respectively. Probably, strong faith on fbmklci-1400 reach

Fbmklci steady throughout the day, succeeding in protecting 1380, followed by a 2 index point jump in preclosing stage. 4-day winning streak, totaling +36p

Weak day but strong closing….plenty of imagination.!...thought of pullback for the rest of the week evaporated with this kind of closing. Back to 1400 first if fbm > 1382.



Morning start...fkli firm 85-90 fcpo weak 2640-50

DJ +100 on strong earnings from Wal-Mart and Home Depot, reversing some of pervious weaker retail data sentiment. Europe near +2%.

8.15 : DJ futs +18. Regional nearing +1%. A quiet day for commodity, flat overnight, cautious.

fkli : with expectation that fbm will test 84 lvl, fkli is seen steady within 85-90 range,topping 90 today but do not rule out kneejerk toward 1400. Bullish if fbm >1380. bulls are seen ready to take profits for weekend but will gauge fbm moves.

fcpo: SO flat, cautious. Not helping fcpo bulls. Internak tech weakness will add pressure with price at critical short term support lvl. Above 2640 is intra day buy but only a crossing above 2670 will put bulls in better seat. Sell on weakness today.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Fcpo wrap..no sign of bounce...trading sell preference


Weakness all round. Fcpo hit high in PM opening with a 90-degree like climb from 2660 lvls but shortlived and hitting the low one hour later. Sell on rebound limited any chance of upside and lack of bargain yet. Tech weakness continued coupled with SO -1%

Fcpo remains trading sell if below 2680 with dwward risk towards 2600. Defensive first, waiting for reversal signal to enter long again – crossing back above 7SMA. Till then, mkt seen heading for consolidation phase from recent upward trend. But unlikely to reverse fcpo long tern uptrend mode, >2500.

Fkli wrap....overbought but tech still very bull...





Strong from start till about 4pm. Last hour was mostly profit take activities after reaching 1380 lvl in a day climb. Fkli extend upside toward 80-85 range in PM thanks to +ve Europe, +0.5% /DJ futs tone, +50, helping to keep fkli’s premium stance. Regional was mixed again today.


Technical bullishness remains intact. Above 1380 is overwhelmingly bullish, targeting 1400 but unlikely to breakout with one attempt. Rather, a pullback is expected, narrowing the gap with 7SMA first. So, sell on weakness strategy in the later half of the week. Chasing position buy looks a bit too expensive but trading buy above 80 with tight sellstop

Morning start...fkli firm 1370-75 fcpo weak 2650-70

DJ -1, 5-day losing streak ahead of WalMart, Home Depot Q-ly result day. Europe softer, flat.

8.30 : DJ futs -9. Regional lower tone. NK -0.7% on tech and strong yen. Dollar weaker across the board but commodity -1% except GOLD +1%


fkli : seen steady near 70 with expectations that fbm will trades above 1370. Above 70 is bullish wihle immediate support is seen at 65 if 70 breaches.

fcpo : SO -1%, a big test for fcpo bulls. fcpo is seen trap inside 7 and 14 SMA around 2630-2680. Trading sell if < 2680.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Fcpo wrap...whats with all the selling...profit take already?




With change-over of benchmark today, Fcpo missed fresh year high mark on continuous basis. Thats why sentiment so lousy ??

Instead of taking advantage of SO strong gains in AM session,. prices never did pick up momentum after a gap-up, downhill all the way, coupled with late selling activties after 2700 support kapush! …

As a result, no confirmation of Fri’s strong move as fcpo failed to mark its footprint above teh red resistance line. Worse, fcpo is under 7SMA. Bulls must work hard now..otherwise it looks like a Jan-Mar-Aug-triple-top if 2650 support is breached...scary thought!! In the meantime, 2800 still hopeful.



Fkli wrap ..riding on fbm year high incentives...ready for 1400





After early jitters and discount stance over fbm, fkli rebounded sharply in PM session when external sentiment improved. SH/HS helped to offset DJ weak sentiment, on banks gains. GENTING gave fbm an early boost, passing the baton to MAYBANK in PM relay. Both contributed a total of 9 index point.

Technically, a very convincing breakout and looks like a fresh uptrend leg towards 1400 as this mth target. Weakness is seen limited near 60 on buy on dips.



Morning start...fkli weak 57-60 fcpo strong 2730-50

DJ-16, losing streak conitnues on weak retail data. This week, major retail's stocks, WalMart etc will release thier 2Q earningis report. Europe -0.2%

8.30 : DJ futs -30. Regional -1%. Commodity mixed, does not seems to have a clear direction.


fkli : without a +ve external, immediate follow through upward momentum is unlikely. fkli is seen drifting back 60 range, with 55 as the immediate support. Below 1360 is intraday sell, targeting the lower half of 52-62 range.

fcpo : SO +1.5%/ Another strong showing is expected from Fcpo. May see 2800 on kneejerk but a tug of war near 2750 is more likely the case. Above 2720 is bullish.

Friday, August 13, 2010

Fcpo wrap...ready for 2700-2800 ..



Fcpo secured 2700 for the week amid strong SO gains in PM session. FCPO gap up RM20 in PM opening.
A brighter day for bulls and raising the prospect of seeing 2800, the next target if 2640 resistance breached. Immediate support is raised to 2700

Fkli wrap..this week -1.5p..."V" recovery..bears fuming!





Not only 50-52 but 60 lvls. Heaven for bull thanks to GENTING start jumping Fbm, creating feel good factor in AM session. Prices extend gains in PM session on favaroble Europe/DJ futs. Regonal mixed. Almost no weakness today, all the way up despite a dismal performance in early part of the week tha saw bears in much control.

This week, mkt got off to a bear start but the finale belongs to bulls following today’s solid performance. From short term tech support, fbm.fkli reversed back up and recaptured all short term SMAs again.


Above 1360, signaling a deviation form the ascending triangle, would end recent trading sell tone and potentially resuming Jul’s uptrend leg.