Friday, July 30, 2010

At a glance...daily % chg this week...no strong direction

very mixed...except fkli. fkli slow but firm on the back of fbm 6-day winning streak, totaling 25p. Fkli gave up the premium on Fri ahead of US GDP, snapping its 5-dayrun.

Fcpo wrap..+19 this week but ends with profit take tone


SO gains only gave an opening push, the rest of day was mostly profit take sell. But uptrend remains intact. Mkt saw players taking some profits away after a strong early July.

2500-2540 sideways but upward bias if above 7SMA. Fcpo is likely to resume its uptrend next week towards 2600 if 2540 resistance is taken out. Dwside risk in the coming week is seen limited to 2450+.

At a glance..Asian index performance....% chg mtm

Strong July as strong earnings from US/Europe companies offset fears of double-dip. SH catching up with the rest


Only Fbmklci, Kos and STI above water




Fkli wrap...+2.5 this week...Aug weak on external..





While fbm at fresh year-high, it fails to inspire fkli. Aug contract takes a hit in PM,c reating a wide discount amid Europe/DJ futs losses. Both cautious ahead of US GDP 2Q report. Europe -0.5% DJ futs -40.

This week candle looks alike – a base for a run in Aug or toppish ? the former!

Hopefully, Aug10 will take cue from fbm to stay within 55-60 range on Monday for a continuation of July’s uptrend tone. 1350-60 is considered sideways and upward-bias. A breakout above 60 could lead to fresh run in Aug targeting 1370-80.

Morning start...fkli firm 1358-60 fcpo strong 2530-35

DJ -30, Europe also marginally lower,-0.2%

8.10 : DJ futs -4. Regional lower tone, wtihin -0.5%. Commodity strong, CO +1%. GOLD +0.5%, recovery mode after a $100 sell dw from all time highs.

fkli : may not see initial follow through, more like a tug of war at 60 with upside-bias once 55 support is tested and proven. Above 55 is +ve while above 60 is bullish ofr 60-70 range if fbm > 1360.

fcpo : SO +1.5%, its biggest move this week, on riding on supplies concerns over grains product. fcpo will take on the upper band of 2500-2550 and is likely to start around 2530-35. If so, intra-day support is raised to 2520 from 2500+.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Fcpo wrap..looking good to finish above 2500 in July


Fcpo experienced profit take sell at critical resistance lvls around 25-35. SO strength provided the initial push above 2500 on follow through tech activities.

Fcpo is unlikely to stage a breakout above 2535 but could well satisfy to “park” fcpo above 2500 in July. This would encourage the resumption of recent uptrend targeting 2600 in the first half of Aug.

Fkli wrap...year-high on (very) late buying...tech bullish





Fbm.fkli mostly sluggish and cautious for most of the day till 4.30 pm. Strong Europe/DJ gains prompted Fkli late buying plus fbm closed near day’s high too after seesawed near 56-57. However, 65% of fkli vol was derived from roll activities.

Europe gradually extends gains to near +1% after the opening bell. Earnings +ve. DJ futs also at its high +50.

Technically, a breakout of 3 day range, pointing at 70 tomorrow if fbm crosses above 60. Both likely to finish July on strong tone after today’s actions, setting the springboard for an upward move in early Aug, targeting 1380-1400.

Morning start...fkli firm 1352-55 fcpo firm 2490-10

DJ -40, edns 4 days streak, a worse-than-expected report on durable goods orders and weaker quarterly results from Boeing ..CNN. Europe mostly lower, around -0.5%.

8.30 : DJ futs +8. Regional firm except NK -1%, pullback after a 3% gain yesterday. Commodity remains trendless this week, mixed. CO -0.5%.

fkli : likely to stay neutral within 50-60 but taking the lower band first till external improves. below 56 is -ve tone, targeting 48-50 range.


fcpo : SO +0.5%, providing strong incentives for fcpo to re-test 2500 again. Maybe better luck at 2500-2530 range today. Above 2500, is intra-day bullish.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Fcpo wrap...smooth for bulls...knocking on 2500..



Fcpo made one attempt at 2500 resistance today, after lunch break but a lack of volume dampened bulls effort. Price climbed higher gradually following a gap-dw opening.

External +ve but mostly from equity side, commodity not much this week. Fcpo continued with recovery mode.

Chart remains +ve but in sideways band. Bulls need to climb the 2500 wall before can relax. Ideally parking at 2500-2530, then another run in Aug is a strong probability.

Fkli wrap..no direction still...>50 uptrend intact..





Another sluggish day with familiar ranges…just missed hitting new year highs. Outright vol thin, 75% roll-over vol.

Mostly softer AM session, Fbm.fkli gained momentum in PM start as regional posted strong gains after lunch break.. NK and SH lead, financials strong. However fbm.fkli failed to clear year high resistance but firm at positive zone. Still, cautious towards the end of the day

Technically, fkli not much changes but bulls can take comfort from fbm +ve candle today, eyeing 60 already? To maintain it current trend, both must stay above 1350, for a strong start in Aug.

Morning start...fkli firm 1354-58 fcpo firm 2470-80

DJ +12., after a big drop in consumer confidence offset better-than-expected profit growth from DuPont, UBS and others. Europe +0.3%

8.30 : DJ futs -5. Regional firm tone. NK +1.5% on yen factor. Commodity mostly lower. GOLD and CO near -2%

fkli : same range 50-60. +ve tone but fkli upside seen limited till fbm > 53. fbm 48-53 is neutral.

fcpo : SO -0.2%. fcpo is seen starting within the lower band of 70-80 range. +ve if >73 and intra-day bullish if > 80.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Fcpo wrap..+ve after a RM15 jump in preclosing...



Preclosing‘s RM15 jump amid +ve tone in late PM.

While mostly –ve tone today, fcpo seen stabilizing going forward after a strong PM session that saw bargains activity. A relief for bulls after 2-day of pullback and now bulls can hope for a reversal but too early to call for 2nd round rally yet…as still under 2500.

A lot of push and pull along 7SMA expected for the remaining July mth. Tech support resistance remains about the same., thanks to a strong recovery form early losses.

Fkli wrap..still no trend..struggle at higher ground




Cautious tone and sell on strength continue to dominate..probably so. for the rest of July. Regional remains mixed this week yet…in and out of flat line today.

Fbm.fkli activities lmited to AM session in mostly softer tone after 1 hour of trading that saw both fbm.fkli hit fresh year high again. Weak tone continued till late PM session. Price rebounded thanks to Europe/DJ futs +v cue.

Europe +0.5% on banks. DJ futs, +30, at high end in late Asian hours.

Chart still look toppish but above short term support, 7SMA.- maintaining 50-70 range.



Morning start...fkli strong 58-60 fcpo soft 2470-75

DJ +100/1% after FedEx's improved forecast and a better-than-expected housing market report tempered worries about the economic outlook...CNN. Europe also +1%.

8.15 : DJ futs -5. Regional flat, surprisingly. Commodity mixed. CO +0.5%. GOLD -0.5%. Dollar weak.

fkli : from lower 50-60 to upper 50-60. Bullish tone if fbm> 1355 but expect fkli intra-day tug of war at 60 line. No major tech resistance above 60 through 76.

fcpo ": no cue from SO, flat and mixed. Resistance is lowered ot 2490 for a 2460-90 -ve tone play. Below 2470 would entice tech sell again as mkt is seen extending its correction.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Fcpo wrap....another big black candle..still trading sell



Fcpo tumbles on profit take in PM session following a failure to defend 2500 despite posting gains in early trades. It remains above it previous breakout lvl but bulls have to defend 7SMA support now. Bargain buying interest is seen at 2450-70 range.

After today moves, Fcpo is unlikely to make a strong run up this week but seen consolidating within 2470-2530. For bulls, focus is to stabilize the mkt or recapturing 2500-2525 first.
Trading sell if < 2500.

Fkli wrap....50-70 play remains intact...





Fbm.fkli maintain +ve stance but seesawed without much power. Both secured fresh year-high and tech breakout, even though fkli suffered from Fri’s premium symdrome, triggering some profit take sell.

Regional +ve but off high while DJ .Europe also dip into –ve territory in late Asian hours.

While uptrend remains intact, trading is seen cautious for the remaining days in July after a 3% gain already.




Morning start..fkli strong 1354-55 fcpo 2490-2500

DJ +100 as most Europe's bank passed stress test, re-focusing on +ve earnings. Europe mixed on Fri.

8.25 : DJ futs -8. Regional +0.5% to +1%. Dollar weak. Commodity flat.

fkli : good chance for fmb to renew ytd high. +ve to bullish if fkli > 1355 but looks like a 50-55 play on expectations that fbm till take 46-50 range.

fcpo : SO flat, mixed. 2490-2500 neutral range,a breakout will decide its itnraday tone. Dwward-bias, more pullback if mkts 2535.

Friday, July 23, 2010

At a glance : this week daily % chg...


Commodity mostly highr tone on weaker dollar. FCPO outperformed SO by 1.5% in US$ term.

Fcpo wrap....+RM49 for the week...profit take sell...still buy on dips strategy


Weekend profit take, too bad that 2500 did not hold but uptrend remains. Uptrend will resume if it regains 2520 lvl again. Otherwise, a pullback tone, targeitng 7SMA support. Next week, probably tug of war at 2500 for 2 or 3 days b4 seeing a resumption of its uptrend.

FKli wrap...year high..more to come...1370-80






After spending most of the day in a slow, underperforming tone, buying interest jumped after 4pm, catching up, encourage by strong UK 2Q GDP data. Tech buy above 1348. Fbm also late push and likely to see fresh year highs next week.

Regional mostly higher but off high on profit sell ahead of weekend. Europe +0.1% and DJ futs +40 in Asian hours.

Initially, a slow and mixed week but a perfect finish for the bulls, setting up the next upper range of 1340-80 for the remaining days in July. Another day above 1350 will confirm it. Fbm will give a strong signal if it breaches 1350 resistance.

Morning gap-up...fkli strong 1345-47 fcpo firm 2510-30

DJ big rebound, +200 after better-than-expected earnings and forecasts from 3M, Caterpillar, AT&T and UPS helped reassure investors about the pace of the economic recovery after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress the outlook for the economy was "unusually uncertain"..CNN. Europe +2%.

8.25 : Dj futs +15. Regional wihtin +1% to 2%. Commodity strong. CO +3% GOLD +1%. Dollar steady near yest ranges.

fkli : half of DJ gains already factored-in yesterday. 1345-47 waiting for fbm to challege 1340. fklis will turn bullish if fbm >45, to justify big premium. trading range is raised to 43-52.5.

fcpo : SO +0.2% meaning no immediate danger at 2500 suppoer, will give fcpo bulls a chance to squezze it higher if sellers fail to defend 2520, targeting 2550-60 b4 proftit take sell set in.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Fcpo wrap.....super bull...2600 ?...maybe not this week



Fcpo all the way up…..even SO is taking note. SO reverse AM losses to trade +0.5% in PM session from -1% earlier. After a slow and weak start, bullish run continues after 11.30am when 2470 resistance was breached and no looking back thereafter.

Tech bullish, low end -stock, el nina, hari raya demand….take a pick

Trend wise, Fcpo is seen targeting 2700 after a convincing break above 2500. But not this week, some pullback towards 7SMA is expected first. 2500-2550 looks a better bet.

Above 2500 bullish, immediate target of 2550. Pullback is seen limited near 2465-70, if any tomorrow.

Fkli wrap...still in and out of 1340..fbm drags..





Back to day’s high in softer and thin mkt but Fkli missed the opportunity to reverse early losses despite encouraging external in PM session. Only managed to keep its premium stance but did not run far as fbm < 1340.

Regional turned higher from -0.5% to +0.5%. DJ futs at +80. Europe +0.5% but fbm stayed sluggish on SIME.

Chart slightly worse off than Wed but no big dent – still the same theme, tug-of –war. Looks toppish but steady for the remaining week, 1350-70 kapoosh!, and likely to sideways 40-50. 1330 is seen as the base for the next move up.

Morning start...fkli weak 1340 fcpo weak 2440-50

DJ -100 as Fed trump strong earnings. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that the outlook for the economy is "unusually uncertain..CNN. Tranlation: recovery pace slower that hoped. Europe +1%.

8.15 : DJ futs +10 on tech stock ebay. Regional near-1%. Weaker dollar tone but commodity -0.5% to -15. CO -1%

fkli : bad timing for bulls, no incentive for follow through, and question is how well they play in defensive zone. fkli seen hanging on 1340-43 range in early trade and 37-40 range if fbm < 1338. Dwward risk is 1333, seen as major support today. Below 1340, a seller mkt.

fcpo : SO -0.5%, one day up one day dw. -ve signal but unlikely to change fcpo outlook. mostly a neutral, range bound 2430-2450. Below 2350, trading sell but will it break 7SMA support, near 2430, ?

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Fcpo wrap...near 2 mth highs...ready for 2500 ?



Strong reversal, bulls commitment to keep Fcpo in bullish zone with the helping hands from firmer SO price in late Asian hours. Buying interest jumped after 4.30 pm. Earlier mkt was mostly steady but not much upside.

Technically, a bullish signal for 2450-2500 play if mkts opens higher tomorrow. A continuation of recent uptrend if > 2440.

Fkli wrap...steady climb..but still look toppish..




Fbm slow climb to 1-week high, a bit of struggle to upside. So far this week, externals remained upward-bias but fbm/fkli actions have been mixed and sluggish. Strong Europe gains, +1.5% help to generate buying in late PM session. DJ +20

Lack of fresh buying yet but players take profit take stance as mkt approaches ytd highs. Maybe not breakout this week but building the base for next week ..1350-1400?

Technically upward-bias and must distant itself from 1340 and “park” near 1350 to avoid toppish outlook for the week.

Above 1337 upward risk and potentially fresh bullish tone.



Morning start...fkli firm 1340-43 fcpo firm 2430-40

DJ +70, rebounded from losses on speculation that the Fed is considering additional steps to encourage bank lending. Europe -0.2%.

8.15 : Dj futs +10, tech seen strong on APPLE. Regional +1%. Commodity +1%


fkli : seen back t0 1340-45 again after a cautious day and could turn back bullihs if fbm > 1340. fmb is seen targeting 37-42 range. Both with upside risk towards 50 if above 40.

fcpo. SO recover some losses, +0.5%. This would prevent panic selling and keeping fcpo at tech +ve area. 2420-2440 is range bound and neutral.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Fcpo wrap...profit take...critical support 2410-20


Fcpo snapped a 8-day winning streak in what seen as a healthy pullback. Initially toppish, followed by round of selling in late trading after it dipped into –ve territory., < 2335.

Bullish zone line is 2410-20. Bulls will have tough time if SO does not recover tonight. Trading sell if mkt stays below 2450, targeting 2400-2450.


Fkli wrap...give up premium ?? as fbm near 1340....











Stock mkt vol top 1b but fbm tight range, steady riding on regional gains and closing in on 1340 resistance. But fkli turns cautious in PM session, surprisingly not too eager to take premium stance but keeping an overall +ve posture. Still waiting for +positive cues like fbm >1340.

Overall mkt sentiment mostly upward-bias but a lack of DJ futs gains , -15, probably increase tensin!.Also, Europe only manages small gains, +0.1%.

While lack upside momentum yet this week amid mixed external and fbm slow pace, fkli bulls are not letting in go either. Tug-or-war continues at 1340 and 1330. To sustain current trend , fkli must >1348 but first fbm must cross back above 1340 to justify any premium.

Uptrend is 1330 support remains.




Morning start...fkli firm 1337-40 fcpo soft 2440-50

DJ +60. Europe -0.3%, looks like a mixed kind of sentiment as players ponders over, beating earning estimates vs short of mark revenues data.

8.12 : DJ futs -23 on IBM for the above reason. Regional softer tone but flat, -0.2%. NK -150/-1.5% catching DJ Fri's flu. Commodtiy mixed, from -1% to +0.5%. CO +0.5% GOLD lower on tech sell under $ 1200 mark.

fkli : eager to test upside but given current DJ futs and premium to fbm, fkli is seen floating around 1340 first b4 making a move. Chance will come if and when fbm > 1336. This would translate to 40-45 range play. Fkli +ve is > 38.

fcpo SO -1%., a setback on fcpo bulls hardwork yesterday. but unlikely a big threat either, fcpo is seen taking Fri's ranges but -ve tone if under 2440 as it increases idea of a pullback after 8 winning streak, targeting 2410 today.

Monday, July 19, 2010

Fcpo wrap..running 8 day..bulls eager to test 2500



Spending 99% of the day in –ve territory, fcpo finished +ve near day’s high on buystop right b4 preclosing stage. To be sure, fcpo was well supported in early trading with selling mostly limited to long liquidation as mkt remains in tech +ve if not bullish zone.
2450-2500 this week ? Above 2440, bullish tone. Under is pullback mode, targeting 7SMA, around 2410+.