Wednesday, June 30, 2010

At a glance...BMD vol data...-13% in 1H10 vs 1H09.


FCPO wrap....strong bounce....profit take buy


Fcpo manages to crawl bakc ot +ve territory despite weaker SO. While most mkts off lows, fpco recovery momentum was much greater, probably profit take buyback after an already sharp drop yesterday.
Tecnically, dwward-bias tone but dammed...still above the red-liine support. Meaning 2300-2350 range remains a wait n see.

Fkli wrap... bulls at the mercy of DJ tonight...





After early selloff, all mkts recovered, off lows but still -ve, after a big drop Monday, encouraged by DJ futs +40 Europe +0.5% But cautious as damage has been done -technically and emotionally!

Not too bad, shaking off selling pressure near critical support lvl of 1300+. But it may take several days to recover and in the mean time, danger of breakdw is greater. Mkt is technically a sell in the short term till it regains 1320 again. Critical support at 1300. If breached , mkt may aim for double-bottom near 1250-60.

At a glance ..Asia Equity in June.. ...%

After 1H10, only FBM/KOS in +ve territory.



Morning start..fkli weak 1307-12 fcpo weak 2340-50

DJ -268/-2%, Europe tumbles 3 to 4%, China slowdown fears hit global markets after a report on leading indicators in China was revised lower. Further intensified fears ahead of US June job data this Fri.

8.15 : DJ futs +4 Regional dw 1 to 2%. NK -2% Kospi -1% Commodity hit lower ranges. CO -2% GOLD steady but no new highs.

fkli : half of DJ losses already priced-in but needs to factor another 1% too. fkli seen taking 1305-1310 range with expectations fbm will stabilise within the same range. but aware of kneejerk potential towards 1300. Below 1312, is -ve tone. Strong bounce seen only if HS/SH take lead.

fcpo : SO is dw 1.5%. like the rest, fcpo seen gap dw at opening, towards 2350. Its seen ranging within 2340-2360 lower band with greater risk of a breakdw towards 2300.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Fcpo wrap...year lows..bearish commodity mkt today



Commodity turned south as fears over China growth play in the equity mkt, re-ignited Chinese demand in the commodity mkts...very convenient.

Fcpo hit year lows., back to the recent but matching SO losses. So the same question, a fresh leg dw for 2300-2350 or manages to sideways again.

Fkli wrap....WTF!!! with China... tech breakdown




A day that saw selloff in SH/HS, triggering bearish tone across the board except the US dollar. DJ futs -130. Europe around -2% in late Asian hours, taking cue from China -4% drop. HS -2%

The story goes… ….concerns over 2H growth, poor IPO pricing for China’s Agri bank, laggard effect after last weekend G20 meeting, promised to rein in spending to reduce deficit. Well….. 1H book closing.


Fbm.fkli started the day on firm tone especially fkli taking 3 to 4p premium over fbm. But experienced sharp reversal no thanks to regional performance.

Fbm.fkli suffered tech breakdw under 1320 in PM session and danger of reaching 1300 as the immediate short term move target, Technically -ve till it crosses back above 1325. Cautious for bulls if weakness continues tomorrow.



Morning start...fkli frim 1330-33 fcpo weak 2380-90

Kind of mixed signals as mkt await May's job dat due this Fri. DJ -5. Europe +1%

8.30 : DJ futs +14. Regional firmer tone, +0.5%. Commodity off yesterday's highs but flat, around -0.5%


fkli : seen stready near 1330 first due to its premium. bullish if fbm > 1326, targeting 40 mark again. Above 1330 is intra day buy.


fcpo : SO -1%. A set back for bulls. wiht the current SO rate, fcpo will start on the defensive side first. back to recent low ranges but fresh led dw is unlikely.

Monday, June 28, 2010

Fcpo wrap...firmer on tech support...2400 tug of war ..



Fcpo secured earlier gains on tech support. Strong SO pushed fcpo towards 2400 in early trading, prompting some tech follow through. But mkt off highs on late kwailow selling after outperforming SO today.

Trading remains quiet, thin vol, and tight range, mostly 2390-2400. Market is still sideways but upward-bias if above 2390.

Fkli wrap..suprising strong...on buying after 5pm






Firmer regional on stronger commodity price set mkt tone higher but quiet trading. Stronger European mkts, +1% and DJ futs +30 in late Asian hours push Fkli back above 1330 to finish at day’s highs.

Roll vol dominated ttl mkt vol, around 80%. Longs roll, sell june + buy july, more dominate today.

Technically, mkt escape dwtrend outlook and maintains sideways first. Bulls are likely to re-enter mkt on further strength tomorrow as mkt nears recent highs…setting a platform to revisit 1350+ again after a failed attempt last week.

Morning start...fkli firm 1325-27 fcpo weak 2380-90

Dj -9 and Europe -1% last Fri as economix concerns take centre stage ahead of US job data this Fri.

8.27 : DJ futs +6. Regional falt, firm. NK +0.1% Commodity mostly higher on weaker US$. CO +3.5% GOLD +1%, near record high.

fkli : seen on firmer tone if fbm > 1323 but likely to pause near 27 till fbm breaks 28 or crosses above 30. No major force at mom to cause a breakdw under 1320.

fcpo : SO mostly flat to -0.1% . With no fresh leads, fcpo seen moving within recent neutral range 2370-2400.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Fcpo wrap....-16 for the week...only RM9 range today



What is going on???...so bloody quiet, tight range, resilience for the past 3 days despite weaker SO tone. SO -2% while FCPO -1% this week. Fcpo seems to pause right under 2400 nose after a breach on Tues.

Market is technically dwward-bias, below 2400, but needs to take out 2370 support to generate fresh leg dw towards 2300. At mom, it looks stuck within the red band.

At a glance...this week's daily % chg ...

China factor on Monday...then back to US economic concerns for the rest of the week..less encouraging housing data on Tues..starts the ball rolling...




Fkli wrap...+6 for the week but poor finish...





Two days of playing defensive side at critical support lvl amid weaker DJ. Fkli recovered from selling under 1320 to trade mostly firmer at 1320-25, encouraged by fbm’s resilience above 20. Externals were mixed to lower tone. Europe/DJ fut mildly –ve in late Asian hours

Fbm quiet and –ve till the last data. A 3p push to finish at day’s high, keeping fkli at the upper end after a very cautious day.

Technically, the recent uptrend momentum is over and it needs to recover 1330 to start all over again. A poor finish for the week, below 7SMA - putting 1350 on hold, now focus is to protect support lvl. Further weakness below 1320 could lead to a pullback towards 1300 first.

Morning Start ...fkl weak 1318-1320 fcpo weak 2370-80

DJ -145 as investors mulled mixed reports on the economy and a sell-off in bank shares as Wall Street reform talk move toward a close...CNN. Europe -1.5%

8.15 : DJ futs +14. Regional -1%. Nk -1.5% on yen stength under 90.00. Commodity mixed. CO -0.5%. GOLD firm, flat.

fkli : tough act to regain resistance after a expected weaker opening. While the discount may hold the fkli near 20 if fbm stays above 18. But danger of falling into 1312-1320 range Immediate resistance is seen at 20 followed by critical resistance of 25

fcpo : SO -1%., hampering bulls effort yesterday for a follow through above 2400. Re-testing 2370 support but fresh range of 2350-2370 ? Generally, beliow 2380 is -ve and potentially bearish.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Fcpo wrap... all the same...Tues, Wed, Thu..


Bears were very kind to the mkt today, making no serius attempt to test support lvl. Mostly upward-bias tone, above 2380 but upside limited around 90. Basically taking the upper side of yesterday range, sideways for the past 3 days. Queit too.

No changes with chart outlook, dwward-bias and sideways.

Fkli wrap...*sigh*...all the way dw in PM...




After early gains on Fbm sudden buying in late AM session, fkli turned defensive in PM after 3 pm, factoring in fbm inability to sustain above 30 and selling intensified after 4pm when Europe, -1%, and DJ futs -70 , head south in late Asian hours.

Mkt tone generally turn tech weakness after 1330 support was violated around 3.45pm.
A shame that mkt fails to sustain above 1330, diminishing hope of “parking” it near 40-50 for the week and in danger a pullback towards 1300 first if mkt weakens further. The last defence seen at 1320. Immediate resistance is lowered to 1330-32. Below 1330, sell tone.


Morning start...fkli firm1330-1332 fcpo weak 2365-70

DJ +4 another volatile, with buying in between early and laten selling. Europe -1%.

8.25 : DJ -8. Regional mixed, flat. NK -0.15 , pressure by stroger yen, at 3-mth highs. Commodity mostly weaker tone. CO -1.5%. GOLD flat, profit take after mutiple new highs in recent day.

fkli : will stay firm near 1330 but unlikely to see fresh momentum till fbm crosses back above 1330. looks like 30-35 with dwside risk greater for 25-30 if exernal does not improvement. Bulls will see if fbm will make attempt at major resistance near 35 or continues to sluggish near 1330.

fcpo SO -0.8% , so another defensive play at 2370, will they even get tired? ..let it go...hiihhi. Below 2380 is -ve and potentially 2350-2380 play.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Fcpo wrap....2370 support survive another attack....


Negative tone prevails on tech weakness and a lack of lead from SO. But short of a fresh breakdw below recent low lvls. Slow moving market and continues it ranging preference.

Bulls continue to defend 2370 support while bears reluctant to push further amid a stagnating SO price. Technically, still dwward –bias.

Fkli wrap...strong recovery..sustain uptrend outlook




After playing defensive in AM session, mkts lauched forward in late PM session, encouraged by DJ futs +50, HS strong bounce, from -180 to +20 despite Europe -0.5%.

Fbm did a 5p push in the preclosing stage to finished +6, at day’s high, despite mostly in –ve territory for the day.

Fkli crossed back above 1330 in late trading after fbm closing. Earlier, it was well defended within 20-25 range despite weak external factors.

Uptrend, above 7SMA, and 1350 target remains even though unlikely to see another fresh breakout this week. Above 1330 would encourage bulls activities.


Morning start ...fkli weak 1325+ fcpo weak 2370-80

DJ -150/-1.5% amid a worse-than-expected existing home sales report and selling in energy sector. Europe 1%.

8.15 : DJ futs +15. Regional -1%. Commodity mostly lower. CO -3%. GOLd firm, flat.

fkli : another setback after Mon's run. ..maybe time to close the gap , 20-30. Off to a sell or defensive play. but unlike yesterday, mkt is seen reaching major support when bargain could emerge at the lower end. Below 1330 is sell tone.

fcpo : SO -0.2%. with weaker commodity tone, fcpo will stay in dwward-bias range and could trigger a breakdw towards 2350, for a 2350-2370 new lower range. Below 2380 is potentially bearish.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Fcpo wrap...ready for 2300 ? ...fresh leg down



Another sell story below 2400 on SO -0.8% and weaker overall environment today as most mkts retreat from Mon’s run. Mostly under 2400 but quiet till some late selling after 4.50pm, pushing mkt below 2390.
However mkt is considered ranging as still within recent familiar ranges – no breakdw yet but dwward-bias range of 2370-2400.

Critical support is seen at 2370+. If breaches, fcpo is likely to slip into a new lower range of 2350-2370 this week if not 2300-2350



Fkli wrap...profit taking already..cautious




After a big run yesterday, mkts off steam after a lackluster DJ overnight. Overall sentiment is cautious today and surprisingly lack of bargain and quiet too.

Regional around -0.5%. Dj fut marginally +ve. Europe near -0.5%

Fbm erases more than 60% of Mon’s day gains causing fkli struggling to maintain its premium, putting up a fight at 1330 in the last 20mins after stagnating around 1332-1335 for most of the day.

Mkt trend remains higher, above uptrend line and 7SMA, but could see further pullback towards 1320-30 before bargain emerges if fkli < 1335 or fbm <1330.



Morning start...fkli soft 1335+...fcpo weak 2390-2400

DJ -8, gave up gains as investors chose to be cautious after a recent advance and discounted China's move to strengthen its currency. ..CNN. Europe +1%

8.20 : DJ futs +4. Regional around -1%. Commodity also -1%.

fkli : seen starting soft near 1335 and likely to slip to 30-35 range. Chance of closing yest's gap will increase if fbm dips under 1330.

fcpo : SO -1%. after recent top heavy actions, 2400 support will come under pressure again today. 2380-2400 range if SO stays -1% but unlikely to create breakdw from recent lower ranges near 2370.

Monday, June 21, 2010

Fcpo wrap... Fri's range...all quiet



Fcpo was surprising ranging and quiet despite commodity taking centre stage today. Probably only US$-products were affected - meaning on currency play rather than real demand.

Fcpo stuck within Fri’s range, mostly in-out 2410 therefore tech neutral. SO gains provided support but flying RM limited buying interest and causing some selling pressure in the afternoon…mostly kwailow…I suspect.
Above 2400, is upward bias but seen in a consolidation range of 2400-2440.



Fkli wrap...vrooooooom... to 1350 great wall





China provides oomph with its weekend announcement to let yuan appreciate “further” ahead of G20 meeting in Canada this weekend. Stronger yuan means bigger buying power…pushing commodity higher especially US$ denominated products.

Regional bullish, near 3%. Dj futs +130. Europe near +1.5%. Ringgit +2%.

Fbm.fkli strong from get-go, a bit stagnant in PM session on profit take but still manage to finish near high on late buying activities. Mkt experience tech breakout above 1330, putting it on another journey towards 1350+ big resistance first before some pullback to close 1320-1330 gap.
Bullish if > 1330.

Morning start...fkli strong 1320-25 fcpo firm 2410-20

Mixed Fri. DJ +4. Europe mixed and flat.

8.30 : But DJ futs +130 after China loosen its yuan's peg to dollar on Sat. Regional +1.6%. Commodity strong on weaker dollar. CO +2.5% GOLD +1%. Ringgit +1%

fkli : strong, seen testing above 1320 range of 1320-25 amid favorable externals. Daily support is seen at 18. Above this lvl, mkt is uptrend, towards 1320-1330 range.

fcpo : SO +0.1% but fpco seen strong on external spillover effects. Late selling seen if mkt produce big gains on stronger dollar. 2400 looks solid support today, likely taking the same range as Fri,, 2400-2420.

Friday, June 18, 2010

At a glance...: BMD ...DMA contributions...

DMA=Direct Market Access, the likes of "kwailow" in far far land that key-in their order from their desk and local brokers that provide internet-based trading for their clients.

% is based on mthly trading vol. For example, about 30% of Fkli vol in May is through DMA and 15% for fcpo.

The rate is expected to grow higher with the expected launching of BMD new systen in Aug, that would further encourage internet trding and access to overseas mkt through a local broker.

At a glance : this week daily % chg ...


Fcpo wrap...+14 this week..a week of tug of war....no winner



Fcpo bulls follow through but defensive for most of the day. Barely, defended 2400. Spillover effect from fbm.fkli and SO +0.35 provided some upside but mkt faced resistance above 2400, probably on weekend profit take sell activities.

A breakdw below 2400 in the previous week fails to generate into short term dw trend, 2300-2400. Instead, mkt consolidated this week in tight range play, with mostly 2370-2410. At this juncture, it looks like another sideways mkt, within the red range.

Fkli wrap...+20 this week..bullish..reaching year high ?







Fbm jump 5p in preclosing stage on Tenaga RM0.40 push, about 4p for fbm. This push fkli back to AM ‘s high lvl after stagnating near1315 for most of the day.

Fbm.fkli start strong on internal follow through momentum and tech strength, taking advantage of a mixed external. Regional mostly lower except, +150. SH -2%.

Bullish trend if above 1310 as the current momentum could propel mkt towards the upper red line target and along the 1-mth uptrend line. However, doubtful of a breakup on 1st attempt as fbm is due for pullback to at least, towards the 7 SMA support lvl first.

If fbm > 1312, fkli will stay bullish.