At a glance ..BMD mthly and Q vol

At a glance...: Asian mkt in 1Q

NK top in 1Q....crazy huh!, boosted by second stimulus package. Fbm comes second on NEM feel good factor. Only 3 mkts above the water. SH remains laggard on tightening fears.

% chg.

Fcpo wrap...short covering continues..

despite SO weakness, fcpo took a firm tone on short covering activity, encouraged by crude oil strength. SO -1%.

Jun10 returned to a more neutral range, reducing risk of a breakdown. However, the mkt has not turn uptrend yet. It needs to trade near 2570 to be convincing. Upward-bias tone if above 2550.

FKli wrap...Apr10 late surge on fbm push...

Fkli remains very upbeat, based on Apr price action. While fbm struggled at 20, Apr mostly steady near 20 before a sudden late push. Buying interest jumped after fbm finished above 20 from 17 in preclosing stage despite a lackluster afternoon.

Kwailow buying Apr noted after 4pm.

It remains to be seen whether fbm will catch up with fkli tone tomorrow. To be convincing, fbm must break free from 23. Otherwise fkli premium will evaporate as fast. Fkli new benchmark Apr's trading range is generally pegged at 20-30 untill clearer sign from fbm.

Starting grid ..fkli firm 15-20 fcpo weak 2500-2520

DJ +11. No clear direction ahead of Fri's job data. Europe mostly lower,minus 0.5%.



8.10 : Dj futs -3. Regional firm, +0.2%.

fkli : fbm is more incline towards profit take today for a lack of big +ve external. Fbm is likely to stick with 17-20 for a start, with Mar/Apr taking 15-20 range. Apr is unlikely to do premium unless fbm breaks above 20. Risk is dwside following yesterday's action. Below 20 is sell mkt.

fcpo : SO tumble 1.5%, with concerns about China taking measures to limit vegoil imports adding to the defensive tone. Jun10 is seen will return to yest's lower ranges, 2500-2520 on soyoil pricing.

Fcpo wrap...no breakdw but strong bounce in PM

Strong PM, triggered by soyoil reversal during lunch break. Still, stronger than expected, reaching major resistance lvl. Almost RM50 range, bulls took relief with 2500 support standing, which probably prompted more shortcovering in the afternoon.

With 2500 as “tested” support, bears need to step up their game to create a fresh leg dw even though the mkt is still within a descending triangle.

If 100SMA, around 2510++, remains as a support in the coming days, it may be perceive as building a base for a reversal of recent dwtrend. But the mkt remains dwtrend, below 7SMA.

Fkli wrap.. trading sell mkt..more profit take seen

Despite strong external factors, fbm failed to finish above 1320. Early gains eroded on profit take among financials after 10pm. The mkt mostly stagnant thenafter, plus minus 20.

Despite early upbeat tone, Fkli sentiment sudden reversed occurred after 10.22am big selloff (not really big…about 200 lots), the only big action for the day. Despite strong regional in PM, fkli did not recover from the impact., with cautious tone all afternoon unlike previous premium stance.

Next new buy signal is 26.5 stop. As the mkt could see more profit take ahead of 1Q closing, testing short term support lvls b4 making another run. Below 20, trading sell mkt.

Starting grid..fkli firm 20-25 fcpo firm 2520-2530

DJ +45 after a report showing a rise in consumer spending added to bets about the strength of the economic recovery.CNN. Europe marginally higher.

8.20 : DJ futs +4. Regional +0.4%. Commodity firmer tone. CO taking the lead with a 2% gain.


fkli : another chance for fbm to break 20 mark. Mar is seen steady near 25 first, ready to make another run if fbm breaks above 21. Bullish tone to start the day, if above 24, targeting 30-33 range.

fcpo : SO +0.6%, providing fcpo bulls some breathing space but mkt is likely to stay below the dwtrend line. 2520-2540 neutral range today. Below 20 is a strong intra day sell signal.

Fcpo wrap...tech sell follow through in PM...kwailow ?

Tech selling gained upper hand in PM trading, renewing Mar’s low, hitting 100SMA support. Strong ringgit made bulls effort even harder today. SO +0.5% in Asian hours.

While trading range remains the same 2500-2550 , Fcpo is making another step closer to 2500, a breakdown point towards 2400. Technically, bearish if below 2550.

Fkli wrap...up trading range to 20-30

5-day winning streak, totalling FBM +25 Fkli +30.

AXIATA,TENAGA strong from start. Further boost from strong regional market, SH +2% HS +1%. DJ futs also very strong +50. Banking led.

However, fbm looked toppish at 20 all day long while fkli maintained premium especially Apr10 contract (far right candlestick). Fkli increased its trading range by a notch to 20-25. Quiet with 80% vol derived from rolls. Bulls started to take position in Apr10 contract.

Technically a positive day, slow but 1340 target solidly intact. The uptrend support is raised higher (the lower red line).

A quick glance..RM at its highest since credit crisis

$/RM = 3.2725

Starting grid...fkli firm15-18 fcpo firm 2530-50

DJ +9. Europe off 0.5%. DJ is seen range bound and stay +ve technically ( < 10700) ahead of Mar's jobs report on Good Fri.

8.20 : DJ futs +5. Regional taking cue from Europe, dw 05% in early trading.Commodity mixed. CO -0.5%. GOLD +1%.

fkli : due the premium and softer regional fkli is seen retreating towards the lower half of 15-20 range first b4 fbm opens. Strong support is seen at 10 today but upside target remains intact.

fcpo : SO up +0.5%. fcpo is seen range bound on firm tone, wihtin 30-70 but unlikely to clear resistance lvl, 7SMA. Below 30 is a strong sell signal.

Fcpo wrap...momentum for fresh bearish trend...

Fcpo closed at low following a RM12 dip in the preclosing stage with about 500 lots changed hands. Tech sellstops below 2550 on close.

Fcpo broke 2550 support, making 2500 a strong likelihood next week. But bears may be glaring at 2400 already. The risk of a fresh leg dw towards 2400 is huge if 2528 breaks.

Today, the mkt got stuck near 50 with not much move but late selling activity gave the bears something to cheer for when it finally track SO -1% in the closing 30-mins. Bulls will have a hard time as long as mkt stays under short term SMAs.

Fkli wrap....looking good to visit year-high

Fbm produced the tightest range ever, just 2p. No big gains despite favorable regional sentiment. Still, a 4-day-21 point winning streak.

Fkli mostly stuck within 15++ for the day, extend its premium stance in late afternoon after fbm add 1p in the preclosing stage to finish above 1315, which prompted late short covering.

A strong week, +1.5%, ahead of NEM policy on 30th. Mkt turned positive-bias technically on Tues and with a strong finish today. The mkt is likely to re-visit current high as the immediate target. Up mkt if above 1310.

Starting grid... fkli firm1315-1318 fcpo weak 2550-60

DJ +5, as a late-session bounce in the dollar sapped the strength out of a rally, with commodity prices and stocks cut gains... CNNBut Europe +1% with talk of IMF involvement in an assistance package for Greece....MW

8.15 : Dj futs -18. NK +80 on weaker yen, -0.5%. KOS -4. Commodity lower on dollar strength. CO -1%. Gold flat after a breakdown below 1100 mark, last 1092.


fkli : Generally upward-bias and potentialy a breakout above 20. for start, fkli is seen steady within 15-18 postive range. will take a higher trading range of 18-25 if fbm breaks 15. Day's dwside is seen limited near 12. The Q is will Najib-brother-CIMB continue to give face to Najib till 30th or some profit take first ahead of weekend?


fcpo : SO -1.3% on larger stockpile, weak CO, tech weakness ( toppish at 40). 2550 support back in danger. It does look like a lower trading range of 2530-2550, at the curretn SO rate. But jun10 is called to open plus 2550. Upside seen limited near 2570.

Fcpo wrap...another range bound play...

Fcpo bears did not launch major attack today. 2550 remains a support and ventured into 2560-2570 range play mostly before late short covering activity..SO -0.1%.

So the mkt managed to consolidate in neutral range, providing some relief for bulls. But at lower ranges, the dwside risk is greater.

Fkli wrap..well supported, waiting for right external condition

While limited upside amid weaker regional weakness, fbmfkli was mostly positive tone. CIMB provided support for fbm, +2.5p, but the index was mostly plus minus 1310 before a push to 12.

Fkli faced strong selling pressure only once today, a kneejerk to HS -1% at opening. Otherwise, mostly range bound, in quiet trade, and like fbm keeping energy and waiting for external factors to turn positive.

Technically, remains the same –above short term support, so upward-bias. 1310-1320 familiar range. Above10, mkt intention is to revisit year-high but first must overcome bears strong defence at 20.

Morning gossip..fkli weak fcpo weak

DJ -52, as the dollar strengthened on fears tied to the growing fiscal crisis in Europe and a dour report on U.S. sales of new homes raised concerns about the economic recovery. Europe flat, mixed.

8.30: DJ futs -2. Regional mixed, NK +35 on weaker yen. KOS -3 on DJ losses. Commodity down 1% to 2% on stronger dollar against Euro. GOLD -1.5%. CO -1%.

fkli : no attempt at 20 expected today, bulls are likely to take a defensive role. 1310-1313 for a start but dw risk is 1305 if 1310 breaks. Fbm will remain a sell if below 1310, target 1303.

fcpo : SO is dw 0.6%,giving bears fcpo some incentives to break 2550 support again. Howewer risk another breakdown below 30 is unlikely. Jun10 is seen taking a negative trading range of 2530-2560.

Fcpo wrap...bears ready for hunting...

Steady in AM but bearish in PM. Trading activity improved slightly from the recent “low” lvls after third attempt at 2600 failed. Bears getting ready for the next assault ?

Commodity was generally lower in late Asian hours on dollar strength, +1% against yen and euro. To the ringgit, flat near 3.30. SO -0.6%

Technically, negative and potentially bearish if 2550 breaks, reviving earlier call for a test at 100SMA or 2500. Immediate resistance is lowered to 2570 from 2600. A sell market if under 7SMA.

Fkli wrap...profit take but upward tone remains...

Despite profit take activity, off high but downside was limited on bargains. And mkt extended its uptrend tone by staying above 21SMA.

Fbm saw big gains in opening hours on CIMB. But, the index spent most of day consolidating plus minus 1310. Surprisingly, fkli was less upbeat than yesterday, not much of follow through, probably due to the premium.

With upside-bias tone, the next hurdle is 20+. If this clear, it will lead to the recent top range resistance. Then the mkt will to decide whether to create fresh rally or continue to stay within 1300-1340.

Mroning gossip fkli strong fcpo soft

DJ +100/+1%, ending at new 18-month highs following the release of a better-than-expected existing home sales report that suggests a slow economic rebound...CNN. Europe +0.5%

8.20 : DJ futs -4. Regional +0.7%. NK +70. Commodity mostly firmer tone, +0.2%

fkli : prices are likely to test 1320 if fbm breaks 1310. In the meantime, fkli will steady near 1315, within 1312-1316 bullish range for start.

fcpo : equity moves big but commodity rather quiet in the 2nd half of Mar. SO -0.2%, near 40 mark. CO near 80 mark. both around these lvls for almost a mth. Jun10 is seen range trading within 2570-2610, in a mkt the is still lack of a clear direction, technically.

Fcpo wrap....still testing 2600 resistance..no luck yet

Fcpo mostly stuck near 2580 lvl, positive range all day long but still unable to take out 2600 yet. It seems bears not giving up so easily. Trading wise, very slow and quiet. Both FCPO/SO +0.8%.

The mkt turns slightly positive today after venturing above 7SMA. Upward-bias within consolidation range ( between red lines) after a RM150 drop but yet to gather enough momentum to reverse the trend yet.

Fkli wrap...turning positive in "V" style

Fkli strong up reversal, posting huge gains as fbm return to 1300 on local fund buying ahead of Invest Malaysia/NEM policy on 30th. ??. External strength also give fkli bulls courage to build premium. Europe +0.7% in late Asian hours.

Did not expect mkt turning positive so soon...not to mention with such big gains too. A buy mkt if above 1300.

Technically, the mkt is now in +ve zone and possibly setting a base for the next leg up towards 1340++. Trading range is revised from 1280-1300 to 1300-1340 taking a buy stance if mkt stays above 1300.

Morning gossip..fkli positive fcpo positive

DJ +45 with health care shares leading the way as Congressional approval of a sweeping reform bill. Europe flat.

8.30 : DJ futs +3. Regional not tkaing cue from DJ yet. NK --13 KOs+11. Commodity mostly higher. CO +2%. Gold -0.5%

fkli : positve tone but unlikely to make arun above critical resisitance lvl like 1300. 1290-1300 range with fbm seen steady near 1295++

fcpo : soyoil +1% gain will give bulls another chance to test 2600. Jun is seen starting near 2590. within a positive trading range of 2570-2620.

Fcpo wrap....bears defending 2600...

Like fkli, fcpo saw late selling after a brief attempt at major resistance lvl, 2600. Probably due to crude oil dipping under 80 mark in late Asian hours. SO +0.1%

Fcpo trading was generally range bound, consolidating in a neutral range after recent drop. But it needs to break above 2600 to escape bears’ grip.

Fkli wrap...late setback for bulls...1280-1300 sell range intact

Generally weaker equity tone today amid a $2 decliine in crude oil price plus DJ futures pointing to a possible 2-day losing day, -40. But not a continuous drop though, profit take in early trade, quick rebound in between, and a late sell off following fbm 3p fall in preclosing stage, SIME/AXIATA. Earlier, MAYBANK led the mkt near 1300.

Fkli’s first white candle in 7-day but overall, negative on chart outlook – below 21SMA It actually increases the risk of a test at 1280/30SMA. Immediate resistance is lowered to 1300 from 1310. So, trading sell remains if mkt stays below 1300 .

Morning gossip..fkli weak fcpo weak

DJ -40, snapping a 8-day winning streak. Europe off -0.5%.

8.25 : DJ futs -30. NK closed. Kospi -0.7%. Commodity weaker tone, Gold -1.5% , CO -2% on stronger dollar.

fkli : is seen stuck witihin 90-98 range with greater downward-bias risk as the mkt is expected to remains in a negative zone of 1280-1300 today. Below 1293.5, is fresh intra-day sell signal mkt, targeting round figure 90 today or 30SMA in the coming days

fcpo : soyoiil is trading -0.5% lower on weaker commodity stance across the board. This would hamper bulls followthrough,. Jun10 fpco is likely to start softer near 2560 and range bound within 2540-2580.

Fcpo wrap..short covering ahead of weekend.

Fcpo see more gains in PM after a steady AM session. No danger of support breakdown today but much to do with recovering some of Thu’s massive losses on the back of firmer soyoil, +0.3%. Despite today’s weekend short covering, Fcpo lost RM72 this week

The mkt completed a 50% pullback from a 2400-2700 rally. Market remains bearish and likely to see a fresh leg down towards 100SMA the major support as long as the mkt is under short term SMAs.

Fkli wrap .. off lows but still in sell-zone

Weak AM, steady in PM. Not much really. Net, still negative-bias. Fbm weakness continues to cause more damage for fkli bulls, reinforcing 1280-1310 trading band next week.

External mostly up but fbm not taking cue. While mostly range bound, fbm performance under 1300 triggered fkli selling before bouncing off 21SMAs support

The mkt is at 1/3 adjustment support . But if weakness continues on Monday it could wipe out another 20p next week before serious bargain activity set in. To refresh bulls, the mkt must at least take out 7/14 SMAs. In the meantime, a sell mkt.