At a glance...BMD Quarterly data

p/s again, kwailow bullish going into 4Q

MarketWrap : to green line...major support ?

Fbm weakness continues to drag the mkt. But still consider a pullback in an uptrend mkt. Waiting for the right time to long while no sell plan if mkt trades above the green line support.

It looks like a congestion band, more trying time before another run up. Resistance is lowered to 1210 from 1215. ( desperate to get in, even though major buy signal is aobve 1220++ , the horizontal resistance lione)

A glance........... monthly % chg

Regional equity in Sep..... % chg

TWI +10
HS +6
KOS +4
SH +4
STI +3
FBM +2

FKLI : morning gossip....1210 junction

DJ -47 on conflicting data, storng housing weak consumer confidence data.

8.30 : DJ futs +12. Regional decides to go +ve ,near +0.5%. Commodity n FX seem quiet.

If fbm trades below 1210, fkli intra sell until a breakout occurs, if any, with eyes on 1200.

Market Wrap : clueless…dark cloud hovering but no rain yet

Fbm produced another lackluster day, barely ending a 4-day losing streak despite strong regional tone. While no fresh negative signal, the mkt failed to take to the upside above 1210. Like yesterday, dragging Fkli along.

Fkli trading very quiet… almost 70% mkt volumes from rolls activities. Rolls remain bullish ahead of Oct.

Fkli stuck within Mon’s range, boring, and remains a sell market at end of the day. Immediate buy signal is lowered to 15 from 20, if fbm trades above 1210. Bargains buy near 1200, if any.

MArketWrap : bearish for the first time in 15 days

Unfortunately, follow through fails to prevail amid bearish external factors. The wait for bounce only translate to ‘give up selling” as the wait for fbm to bounce remains a wait.

A bearish day as prices dip below 7SMA. – 1/3 adjustment. A strong pullback can pull the mkt toward the green line, ½ adjustments. So, bargain hunters take note.

A sell mkt below 1220. Finally, liquidated my long…first trade this mth. Opting not to enter trading sell, as price still above the “last defence/green line” SMA support. Buy stop strategy.

FKLI : morning gossip...1215-1220."yellow-pink"

DJ -40, no major move, still the same story, fear of " Sept bears".

8.30 : DJ ftus -19. Regional reacting to stronger local curency. NK -2% Kos-1%.

Given the external factors, its difficult to imagine follow through buying. Downside risk first, a trading sell if below 20 targeting 1210. Seen opening near 1215.

Possible buy scenario 1) 1210 intra-day bargain 2) fkli breakout buy above 1220 or 1222. 3) fbm trades above 1220.

Ecnomic data week ahead : US focus....

selected few...

Thu : weekly jobless claims, Aug personal income report, Aug pending home sales

Fri : Sep jobs report

MarketWrap : bulls are back....

Very encouraging finish for the week despite early fears of a closing below 7SMA. Almost the same story for the last 5-day - limited upside as fbm a drag but resilient to prevent major profit take selling. It seemed "buystops at 1216" created the feel good positive factors today.

Many retail players are waiting near 1200++ to long but given its resilient this week, above 7SMA, its advisable to raise their bids if mkt gain further traction on Monday. A breakout 1225 buy is recommended ahead of Oct/4Q and 2010’s budget.

If Sep09 stays between 1215 n the breakout line, tak payah trade. Dont sell if above 1220.

FKLI : morning gossip...1210-1215

DJ -40.

8.40 : DJ futs -21. NK tumbles 2.5% Kos -1.5%

Defensive play, a sell mkt from start.

MarketWrap : testing bulls patience.....

Regional negative, led by HS that played up worries over “potential higher interest rate “ after Fed OKed to the US economy performance, providing a keen-jerk reaction or excuse to sell. While still to early to fear higher R%, pressure remains amid weaker DJ, meaning no clear mkt moving news at mom just a lot of noise.

After yesterday, Fbm.fkli are considered firm today, postponing any real action for another day as it found support at 7SMA – at the dot.

Below, 1215 is a trading-sell mkt targeting 1200 or the green line in the near term – IF below 7SMA. But, because the mkt is likely to maintain a long-term bullish tone, fresh short is optional. Instead breakout long above 1225.

Before we see upside the mkt must first reverse its current toppish outlook, so probably no strong buy signal tomorrow.

FKLI : morning gossip....1215-1220

DJ -80/-1% after a no mkt-moving news from Fed. Excuse to sell after a suprising strong Sep yet.

8.20 : DJ futs -14. Regional firm. NK reopens after 3-day holidays +68. Kospi flat.

Another cautious day expected amid weak DJ after a dismal performance yesterday. Unless fbm cna surprise above 1220++, today is a sell market...but do not expect a sellfoo either.

Can 7SMA hold ? Watch out for stops.

MarketWrap: aiya...what is wrong with fbm....

While 1240 may seem too high today, but such a pullback is very damaging. fbm's chart is bery-toppish while fkli still OK...neutral from the previous day and keeping its upside hope alive. But fbm must first trade above 1220. Otherwise, defensive play. Trading sell below 15. Fresh buy above 25 if fbm not to0 far back. 20-25 dont bother!

Economic data week ahead : US focus

selected few....

Tues : Fed's 2-day R% meeting

Wed : Fed 's R% decision

Thus : Aug existing home sales

Fri : Aug new home sales

Holiday

Mon : Japan, Malaysia, Singapore

Tue : Japan, Malaysia

Wed : Japan

MarketWrap : anticipating bull run after Raya break.

After pausing for most of the day, Fbm closed at year-high on buying after 4.30 pm This help fkli to recapture 1220 lvl but activities were slow. Second lowest daily turnover this year.

The mkt is still on course towards 1240, the next major hurdle before 1300. Given the steady-and-calm rise, the risk of a sharp pullback is small with 7SMA as a solid support for any first down pressure.

FKLI : morning gossip....1215-1220

DJ -8p

8.30 : DJ futs -16. NK -1% Kos +0.3%.

After yesterday's, fkli is deeemed negative for the start untill 20 resistance is cleared. downside risk is seen limited to 1210.

fkli will take cue from fbm on worries of further profit take like yesterday.

MaketWrap : no buyers...ahead of holiday ?

Fbm went straight into profit take all day long after touching 1220 in early trade, despite bullish regional tone. Even Europe’s +1% gain failed to cheer up fbm. As a result, Fkli saw its initial gains disappeared.

It seems a range bound mkt already ahead of long weekend, within 1210 and 1220.

FKLI : morning gossip....1220-1225

DJ +108/+1% , pushing Wall Street to its highest level in a year, with a rise in industrial production and a spike in commodity prices and equities fueling the advance...CNN

8.30am: DJ futs +10. Regional +1%. Dollar weaks, commodities strong

Expecting a bullish start within 1220-1225 range. Based on fbm.fkli relationship, fkli top seen at 1230 as fbm may just get stuck at 1225, representing 1% gains. fbm will play catching up with fkli again.

Above 1220 is a buy today.

MarketWrap : year highs……slowly but surely

Mkt was strong but could have been stronger especially in PM as regional extends gains in PM on banking sector. Activities very slow. …Raya mood already! Fbm rather reluctant.

Technically, bullish again, above 1210. Looking good to nearing 1240 before Raya. Same story, above 7SMA let it run. Sit back, relax……my work is getting easier!

Trading sell below 1210. Buying rather for intra-day on breakout above 1220.

HIHIHIHI Joanne Edward See Thor .....

Order Type......

1) GTC –good till cancel.

By default all BMD’s orders are valid for ONE trading day only. But if you place an order + GTC, then your order will be carry forward to the next day till 1) you ask to cancel the order or 2) when the contract expires. With GTC, you dont have to place the same order everyday.

2) GIS – I have no idea

3) FAK – fill and kill.

To cancel any unmatched portion of an order IMMEDIATELY after an order had been placed.
Say, you want to buy 10 at 1200 + FAK while there are only 5 sellers at 1200. In this case, you bought 5 at 1200 and the balance of 5 lots will be deleted instantly from the system.

4) MOO –market on open

To buy or sell at the OPENING PRICE. This is a MARKET ORDER and only valid before market opens. And since this order is placed before market opens, the opening price is the price you will get for your buy or sell order.

MarketWrap: sideways at recent highs….quiet

Very quiet, daily lowest vol yet this year. The mkt stagnant at high side but failed to make fresh upside impression, meaning continues to struggle near 1210. Regional was mixed at best.

Fkli stuck in “no trading incentive" range as fbm did not to catching up. So, the wait continues….but again above 7SMA is a buy mkt.

FKLI : morning gossip.....1205-1215

DJ +20 on late surge in PM after commodities rebounded.

8.30 : Dj futs -10. Regional, NK/KOS up near 1%.

From the anticipated -80 to +20, DJ's stronger-than -expected action could push fbm.fki back to 1210. A breakout still seems unlikely till SH or HS open. But at least 1200 support is stil a good bet.

Fkli seen trading firm within 1205-1210 band and strong probability of doing 1210-1215 ifc regional strength continues.

MarketWrap : status quo..no moves

The mkt basically price-in DJ’s expected losses tonight, following strong indication from DJ futs. Despite weaker regional and Europe mkts, fkli maintained its ground above 7SMA, helped by fbm’s resilience. Early attempts to scale 1210++ failed to sustain as no recovery from the regional side.

Below1210, let the mkt consolidates first b4 taking fresh longs. Since the mkt is still uptrend, focus on buy. Sell is optional and rather not.

Fresh round of buying is expected above 1210.

Economic data...your thought

Hihihi Victor and Anonymous,

Thanks guys. I think we all have to decide which one is “supposedly more relevant” given the mkt conditions to suit one’s trading.

While HS and SH tend to over-n-under stretch, they usually take cue from DJ on a longer term basis as most funds are coming from US. As long as US funds managers think US market is doing fine they will invest elsewhere. So, to me DJ is the core in longer term trading and maybe, HS and SH for intra-day or short term cues.

At the mom, I think we should focus on consumer data to gauge demand in economy to boost growth. I don’t think we are at a stage to worry about inflation data…at least not yet.

FKLI : morning gossip...1200++

8.30 : DJ futs -70. Regional near 1% lower. NK -1.6% probably on stronger yen.

The initial action is seen protecting 1200 support, difficult to take out 1210 with the current external factors. To the downside, fkli is seen above 7SMA for the day.

No new highs today, no new position buy. Break-and-recover buy near 1200.

US economic data...week ahead

this week, hte annivesary of Lehman 's collapse.

Focus on data that reflects consumer confidence for clues to extend recent mkt strength.

Tues : Aug retail sales
Thus : Aug housing start, weekly jobless claims

MarketWrap: new uptrend, breakout week…+30 w-o-w

A strong way to cap the week. While this week's mkt activities may be a bit slow for some, nevertheless the market is scaling higher one small step at a time.

Technically, this week is considered a breakout case, meaning the mkt decided to take the north direction after more than 1 month of consolidating within 1160-1180. Bullish.

Nobody knows “exactly” the mkt future direction. But if one wants to trade, it’s about making assumption. This so-called assumption is packaged with a condition/premise that hold it together. If this condition(s) is/are violated or no longer valid, then re-plan, adjust etc Condition/premise varies individually.

The condition for the current uptrend is to see 1190-1200 support stays. If so, upside target is 1240.

FKLI : morning gossip....1200-1206

DJ +80, having responded strongly to a debt auction and lower jobless claims.

8.30 : DJ futs -14. Regional softer. NK -0.7% on stronger yen. Kos -0.1%.

No to expect much upside in the initial stage before HS opens. Fkli is expected to find support at 1200 as long as fbm stays above 1196++. To the upside, the mkt needs to see 1210 to revitalise mkt bulls today. Otherwise, a consolidation mode wiithin 1195-1210.

Sell stops below 1200.

MarketWrap : higher but could have been better...

Strong run in AM, profit-take in PM. But given strong regional, selling pressure was under control. No closing at high but good enough to neutralize yesterday’s negative-ness.

Regional strong on financials, lead by HS.

If mkt opens soft tomorrow, can engage trading-sell, targeting 1190++. Buy-stop above1210. Next buy signals will appear if mkts hit above 1210. 1204-1210 dont trade.

FKLI : morning gossip.......1200-1204 starts

DJ +50, slowly but surely.

8.30 : DJ futs -2. Regional very strong, up 1% on strong Europe mkts overnight, +1.5% avg.

Fkli is probably eager to re-test 1206 but will have to wait for fbm to take out 1200 first before any chance. Otherwise, reliability issue. Above 1194.5 is intra day buy mkt. Immediate Q is any fresh breakout ?

Buy on breakout above 1206 or if fbm breaks 1200.

MarketWrap : winning streak ends near 1200...

A day of profit take for most mkts. A quiet day especially PM session. But price remained in positive zone. Despite strong start. Fbm succumbed to peers pressure. But fkli was surpising ly resilient and remained upbeat near 1200.

Technically, a toppish day but not major damage done. Below 1206, is deemed as a consolidation phase - 1190-1206. With the mkt still in an upward trajectory, trading sell is optional. Preferably, wait to buy at a breakout above 1206.

FKLI : morning gossip.....1200++

DJ +56 as mkt predicted via DJ futs.

8.30 : DJ futs -12. Reigonal off to a weak start amid "weak" DJ gains, profit take mood.

Fkli is seen holding up its uptrend but intra-day sell is available if 1200 does hold, targeting 1194.5. Above 1200, avoid selling, as a new high could sprak another run.

MarketWrap : Another bullish sign…above 1200

Strong gains across most mkts in PM after Europe opened. Commodities experienced strong gains too. Gold above $1000, crude oil +1% as dollar value dropped.

Fbm/fkli shot above 1200 on buying, short covering , buying mostly concentrated between 3.30-4.00 pm. A follow through sentiment since late last week.

Technically, the next target is seen at 1240. In the long run we may even be looking at 1200-1300 trading band . Above 7SMA, no positions sell signals. Above 1200, don’t sell! unless intra day play.

FKLI : morning gossip.....1190-1200

8.30 am : DJ futs -9. Regional up, 0.5% to 1%.

Good chance for the mkt to test the magical 1200 in AM. A breakout in PM! my wish! Very bullish on intra-day basis if mkt stays above 1190. 1180-1190 still positive -buy on dips sentiment. Further permium is expected if fbm takes out 1196++ mark.

Immediate is buy signal. Sell signal is seen limited to intra-day play.

MarketWrap : bullish at 1 month high….

Despite slow and sluggish early trades, Fkli finally caught up with fbm’s strength after 3 pm on short covering. Regional strong from start, btu fkli received further boost when Europe responded positively too.

With no US DJ tonight, follow through sentiment is likely to see the mkt testing 1200 resistance tomorrow.

Technically bullish. 1) Both fbm/fkli manage to breakout of its recent band range, just short of breaking 1200. 2) short term SMAs are curving upward indicating a possible new trend up > 1200-1240. 3) a violation of “W” formation.

As long as the mkt stays above 7SMA, the mkt will attempt to break 1200 the coming days…. and chances are high.

Immediate support is raised to 1180

FKLI : morning gossip...1185++......1182-1196

First up...US economic data news. No significant data till Wed when Fed releases "biege book" , a survey of the US economy. Then the usual weekly jobless claims on Thu.

DJ +96 on Fri as US companies cut less jobs. Still, unemployment remains at 26y high.

8.30 : DJ futs -8. NK +1% Kospi flat.

Fbm/Fkli are seen extending their last week's late surge. Taking one step at a time, immediate target is 1190. While Fkli can do 1200 on panic buying, a sustainability oculd be an issue if fbm get stuck at 1190, which is near 1% gains.

Above 1177 is a buy mkt today.

MarketWrap: a look at 1200 next week…hopefully

Europe helped to reverse regional sluggishness. Main driving force is HS. See tweet.

Fkli managed to reverse losses in early part of the week to finish +4.5 this week. Fbm +5.

From possible breakdown scenario to possible breakout scenario, the ball is back in bulls’ hands. A firm opening on Monday could very well set the stage for a breakout above the ultimate resistance 1200.

Anticipating higher mkt first till technical tell us otherwise. A buy mkt if above short term SMAs.

FKLI : morning gossip....1173-1182

DJ +70, bounce a bit ahead of job reports on Friday.

8.30 : DJ futs +4. Regional flat.

Fkli is seen taking at upper range within 73-82, waiting for fbm to catch up. A breakout aobve 80 can only be sustain if fbm shoot above 80 too.

A buy mkt if above 1170.

MarketWrap : back to positive area....

Another quiet day.

On the back of strong regional and firmer commodities in the afternoon., fkli managed to regain SMAs. The mkt is actually moving sideways within 50-90 for more than 1 month. And still no clear trend yet, technically.

Can consider new buy if 7SMA move upward or fbm breaks above 80.

FKLi : morning gossip...1165++....1160-1170

DJ -30.

8.30 : DJ futs +3. Regional off to a weak start. NK -1% Kospi-0.5%.

These may discourage strong follow through from yesterday late upbeat tone but the mkt is expected to stay firm above 60. And will not rule out a retest of 70 resistance after SH or HS open.

MarketWrap: stronger than expected....

Regional tracks DJ losses in orderly fashion. More importantly, SH firm and posted gains.

Another sideways play. Almost identical to yesterday’s move, prices recovered, still resilient. Fkli managed to post mild gains as discount narrowed, thanks to last 15 minutes short covering.

Technically, the main concerns are, if mkt breaks 1150 or 7SMA crosses below 30SMA. Until then a quiet range bound mkt and bulls can still hope. But will not talk about upside till the mkt regains above all SMAs, which are cluster together in a horizontal line….just waiting for it to expand.

Trading sell below 1150.

FKLI : morning gossip...1155-1160

DJ -185/-2%

8.30 : DJ futs -6. Regional tumbling, NK -3%, Kospi -1.4%

Fkli is seen taking on a 50-60 in a downward-bias tone. With Fbm dwside is seen at 1160, FKi may recover after early sell down. Mkt sentiment is unlikley to turn positive, meaning below 1170.

MarketWrap : absorbing well.....

Mkts was mostly resilient on a day that upside potential seemed next to zero. After early selling on DJ effect, fbm crawled back above 70. But, fkli attempts to close the gap was disrupted by weaker Europe and DJ futs after 4.00 pm.

Regional steady on recovery mode for a lack of SH’s shock thanks to strong manufacturing data.

Very quiet n tight range mkt. Fkli turns downside-bias again, below 30-SM but still looks like a sideways mkt. Bulls can still count on the discount to Fbm for a pullback. But, just to sure, the last defense is 1150.

At a glance - Aug09 and YTD performance

In Aug, Asian equities mostly lower on China’s effect. China slumped more than 20% on liquidity concerns. But, DJ edged higher following strong housing data.

However, risk taking remains low as US 10-y T price stays above 100 and yen remains strong.

Cheaper dollar in the second half of Aug sparked buying in the commodities class.