A quick look : Regional equity market perfomance : in %

July/ytd


SH +15/+87

STI +14/+51

KOS +12/+39

HS +11/+43

TWI +10 /+55

FBM +9/+34

NK +4/+17

MarketWrap : FBM..what was that...duh!

Just you thought that fkli can easily sustain above 1170…but comes a shocker

Fbm suffers big dips on its own in the afternoon around 3.50 pm., causing big negative reaction in fkli activities, hitting intra-day low around 1165++ from 1175++ and the fall was rapid too, causing some panic. Why ?- I really do not know, maybe mth-end profit take ? some say ISA issue..huh!

Then, fbm jump back 6 points in the preclosing stage to close near the high....duh. But fkli "feeling" sudah very hurt ! so it fails to recover…struggling at the day low. ..too bad!

Fkli selling was a kneejerk……so the mkt can rebound on Monday amid the big discount to Fbm.

Upside target, 1200, remains intact. A convincing sell signal will appear if it cross below 7SMA or 1160 level. 1160-1180, tough to trade.

Above 1170 is +ve but familiar range so only a cross above 1180 is a strong buy signal.

Reminder : BM changes...

Come Aug 03....next Monday

1) no more second board. main board + 2nd board = Main Board

2) mesdaq will be known as ACE

3) take note of the change in "price tick" structure too.

FKLi : morning gossip....1165-1170

DJ +90/+1%, amid report that suggested the labor market is starting to stabilize.


8.40 : DJ futs +3 NK +1% Kos flat. Commodities very strong

FKLi downside is safe again. the mkt is seen doing the upper range of 1160-1170. A breakout above 1170 is possible . ..but have to see strong signal from fbm or HS.

MarketWrap: trying hard to keep uptrend intact...

Mkt was supported, thanks to regional recovery from the previous day’s big losses. But upside almost non-existing amid lack of direction from DJ. Fkli did attempt at 1070 but was consistently held up by fbm’s inability to clear 1160 convincingly.

While negative and toppish at 70, both managed to hold above 7SMA., so uptrend remains intact.

But will have to wait awhile before initiating new moves, to buy above 1075… next week ?? I

Immediate concern is can it stay above 7SMA tomorrow? At the mercy of DJ tonight. If breaks, 1140 is high probability.

FKLI : morning gossip.....1160-1164

DJ -25, lower but another bounce back from 9000 points.

8.30 am DJ futs +4 Regional quiet. NK +4 Kos-7.

FKLI is seen steady above 1160 first until fbm opens. Its good enough if the mkt can stay above 7SMA and then range bound within 1160-1170. Surprise to the upside will depend on HS and CHina perfomance.

Below 1170 is a sell mkt. Q is will there be a fresh sell call below 7SMA.

MarketWrap : spook by China in the afternoon...

China spooks the mkt in the afternoon as a return to tightening policy inspires profit take. Panic set in but managed to recoup some losses by the end of the day. Luckily “just profit taking only lah” sentiment prevails. But, Europe strong.

Fbm.fkli hit the low on kneejerk reaction in the first 30 mins of PM trading. Recent bullish tone help to support the mkt above 1160. Still, China plunge cost the mkt almost 10 points.

Like the many previous cases in this month run, weaknesses only give toppish outlook but yet remains resilient.- meaning the mkt uptrend still intact, 1200 target is still alive as its above 7SMA.

Next immediate buy signal is above 1170 or 1175. Below 7SMA is sell.

FKLI : morning gossip...1170-1175

DJ -12, small losses after strong recovery. "Stocks ended mixed Tuesday as investors weighed a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence report and a better-than-expected housing report in the aftermath of a big rally."..CNN

8.30 : DJ -20. Regional just marginally lower.

DJ losses are unlikely to affect sentiment here- meaning the mkt will remian uptrend. While it may spark profit take sell in initial trades , late buyers are expected to hold the mkt well. Probably, till China opens aorund 9.25am, followed by HS at 10.00am

Above 1170, is a buy and there is a strong chance of another run. Below 1170, intra-day sell with a tight stop at new high. With cautious extrenal factors, fki upside is derived from fbm sentiment.

MarketWrap : a breakout it is....

As if disappointed with its performance yesterday, mkt came back with a vengeance and established a much needed fresh moves - up again.

Regional higher, led by HS on strong lending data , re-igniting hopes for recovery in the property sector.

Fbm posted strong gains today following a breakout above 1160. This technical breakout enticed more participations, especially since regional so strong.

Fkli, which was dangerously toppish for the last 2-days, borrowed fbm strength first before making is own run especially above 1170.

1200 seems certain this week – at least ONE attempt to satisfy mkt bull’s appetite. Very bullish if both mkt stays above 7SMA.

So, be can careful if you are trying to sell on strength for pullback –a bad strategy this month…on hindsight.

MarketWrap: neutral day....toppish but resilient..

Regional strong but fbm did not react External serves only as a support instead of a push Fbm minus throughout and in the case of saving the best for last, its only +ve data for the day came with the closing data.

But, chart toppish outlook at 1160 for four consecutive days data. Ironically, also 4-day wining streak, worth 20 points. Imagine the range !


Fkli upbeat-ness was dampened by fbm. But sellers sidelined amid strong regional mkts. July09 rocks back n forth in a “see how tomorrow” sentiment. Dreadfully dull.

Watch out for 1150-1160 breakout again, especially fbm. 7SMA is catching up fast so there is no room for more dilly-dally – either a breakout towards 1200 or a pullback toward 1140.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +24

8.30 : DJ futs -20. NK above 10,000 for the first time in four weeks, +148/+1%. Kos +1% .

Regional a positive start. This should give fbm.fkli an incentives to extend last week's bullish tone. The question remains can fbm finish above 1160 today ?

Below 1160 is a sell mkt, targeting 1140++.

Above 1160 could initiate a run towards 1180-fkli, with fbm seen at 1170++, represents a 1% gain.

Economic data week ahead : US focus...

......and earnings reports... 146 or 29% S&P500 companies

Mon : June new home sales ( est 355000 unit )

Tues : BP

Wed: TimeWarner, Aetna, ConocoPhillips

Thus : Exxon Mobil( est +1.03 2Q09 vs +2.27 2Q08), Travelers ( +1.28 vs +1.50), weekly unemployment claims

Fri : initial reading of 2Q GDP ( est. -1.5% vs -5.5% in 1Q09)

MarketWrap : preparing for next week bull run...

A quiet day that saw fbm taking profits from onset.

On the back of DJ overnight gains, fkli hit new high, waited for fbm. But to bulls disappointment, fbm did not perform to expectations, meaning still toppish at 1160 for three consecutive days. This spurred weekend selling even before the breakfast is over. Price found support at 1150.

Generally, the mkt is bullish if above 1140 or above 7SMA. Below 7SMA is a strong sell signal. Otherwise any weakness on profit take would entice bargains, like this week.

If fbm can break 1160 next week, after so many toppish days, it’s a strong buy signal towards 1200. I think fkli is anticipating this. So, as long as fbm is near a breakout lvl, fkli bulls will not give up just yet

Plus, DJ closing above 9000 represents a technical breakout. If it can find support here tonight, a new bullish trading range of 9000-9600 is a high probability.

FKLI : morning gossip....1160 for the start

DJ +190/+2%, hitting its highest point since November, as investors welcomed better-than-expected quarterly results and home sales. June existing home sales rose to a 4.89 million unit annual rate from a revised 4.72 million unit rate in May. And a case of " bad but less bad "....unemployment rose to 554,000 last week from 524,000 in the previous week. CNN

8.35 : DJ futs -30. NK +1% Kos +0.5% Crude oil very strong, like in the past few days., nearing $70 again.

At 1% gains, fbm.fkli are seen testing their respective highs of 1060++. Another run is possible b4 intra-day profit take set in. If so, 1160-1170 would be the immediate trading range and support is raised to 1154.5.

MarketWrap : strong, but 1160 remains elusive...

Cautious start but later extends gains, taking cue from HS powerful show. Higher commodity price boosted mkt sentiment, again.

From the start, fkli was strong, eager to run ahead of FBM. But fbm was a bit shaky near 1160 amid concerns over DJ overnight loss. Still, finance and plantations sector strong.

The mkt is so resilient; it makes you wonder whether the target for this run is 1160 or 1200. The mkt is now toppish at 1160 especially fbm but bulls not giving up just yet, anticipating strong US economic data tonight.


Above 1150, still a buy mkt. Above 1160, watch out for another bull run especially if FBM leads. To the downside, if any, downside should be limited at 7SMA tomorrow.

A quick look : market PRICE performance....

Market % chg vs. year 2007 closing. Klci plunge from Mar 2008 (-40%) , consolidate-lower from Oct08 till Mar09, then onwards recovery mode. ( still down -20% since the end of 2007)


Klci and ringgit performance since 2008. Chart says : Generally ringgit weaks, klci weaks and vice versa. Will the two cross path again, a positive one ? I hope so, as it will mean very bullish market.

FKLI : morning gossip.....1145-1150

DJ -34.

8.30 : DJ futs +4. Regional steady. NK +7 Kos +1

Wait n see for Fkli direction, mostly within 1130-1150 for the past 3 days. It looks like a renging mkt today.

Can the mkt hold up its run today ? I dont know. But will use 1140 as a benchmark. Below 1140, risk of a pullback is great...if so technical support is seen at 1130.

To the upside, above 1150 would inpsire bulls to revisit 1160 again.

MarketWrap: wow....another strong perfomance

Bears went into hiding again. Bulls stampede its way to the “top” of 1060. Credit to FBM for taking it own pace while regional play catching up. Rather unfamiliar pattern.

Already in the morning the mkt performed better than expected, it went another mile in the PM before profit take at 1160, chase by players afraid of "risk of not in the mkt".

While bullish tone, profit-take noted at higher end for the past two days. But sentiment was not affected yet. External factors provide support and as incentives recently for bulls to push price higher and higher, taking advantage of the rally mode.

The 1060-1065 band is the major top hit in late July2008. If there is such thing as strong resistance, this is it. Just in case: A clear breach could send mkt towards 1200 but this week ?

A quick take : FBM top gainer in AM ..ttl +19.24

FBM/Fkli high 1155/1159.

1) top sector : plantation, finance

2) top stock gainers : in blue....

ation

FKLI : morning gossip...1130-1135 first

DJ +70, 6 month high, 7 days winning run

8.35 : DJ futs -20. NK -42 on yen gains. Kos -3.

Enough to reverse yesterday's momentum ? May be not. mkt is seen soft till HS opens. Everyoen seems a bit "tired" and DJ double-digit gains may not be so attrative given it recents big triple digit gains. Plus, many would be worry of a pullback now.

Below 1040, a sell mkt today.

MarketWrap : winning streak...not to be....

Mostly profit taking today especially PM session. Players decided to lock in profit near 1150 in early trades. This dictated mkt direction especially with a lack for external push.

Today’s price action is likely to put fkli back on bears's radar screen. This is the first set back in five for mkt bulls Only DJ big gains tonight can reverse today’s toppish outlook, meaning back above 1140

Below 1140, mkt is due for more pullback., meaning trading-sell. It would be best to see the mkt consolidate towards short term support first to test the rally sustainability before resuming its run.

For those who wish to trade in the direciton of the mkt trend, wait at support lvls or buystop above 1140.

FKLI : morning gossip...1146++

DJ +100/+1% , as investors signaled optimism about second-quarter financial reports. ..CNN

8.30 : DJ futs -16. NK +2%, caching up after yesterday's holiday. Kos +1%

Wow...the winning streak continues it seems....aiming for the the top 1160++? At this point nothing seems impossible ! Will see.

But first, the mkt is seen trading 1140-1150 range.

Forget about resistance. Immediate support is raised to 1140 if mkt does open above 1140, which is a very high probability.

MarketWrap : what can i say..so bullish...1060?

The mkt produced another spectacular run today, lead by HS. CIT avoids bankruptcy, commodity strong, HS’s property shares surge, re-rating of HS shares by foreign bank, confidence in China economy grows. I guess…. a list will just grow out of nowhere everytime there is any major movement up or down. Bottomline , mkt is bullish. Period

At this point, it does seems like the mkt will not give up till it reaches the 1060-1065, the peak in late July 2008, which is also the major top before a slide towards 830 last year.

Sentiment is so bullish; probably it will take like two days of weakness before active sellers appear. If you have no long, give this trend a miss, wait to re-enter long when a pullback.

The upper band the uptrend channel is probably a good indicator to gauge mkt momentum in the coming days.

A quick take :KLCI wining streak....record...

Cash/KLCI winning streak record :-

1) total value 92.60 ( Mar 2007)
2) 9 straight day ( Mar 2007 )

Take note, "record" seems to stop at 80 points ++ OR 8 consecutive days. ( especially in 2008) ...wow all the "8"s!

Current winning streak

1) total value 76.00 ( at 1140)
2) 5 straight day ( inclusive of Monday, 20th)

Based on the fact above,

1) there are more room to go higher BUT not much margin.
2) a minimum pullback of 20-30 points ( 1/3) can be expected. Dont be surprise if mkt heads towards 1100 major support. If you are long, dont sell yet but work on a good sellstop strategy to lock in profits. Focus on weakness till a pullback.

FKLi : morning gossip... 1130++

8.40 : Dj futs -18. NK +0.5% Kos +2%

A firm start but not too sure if there would be any strong follow through or will "tiredness" see in. In the meantime, still an intra-day buy mkt, if Fbm/fkli above 1120.

Economic data week ahead : US focus.....

..and 2Q results. 23% or 145 of S&P 500 index componets. Can the trend hold up ?

Mon: Texas Instrument ( est +0.18 per share 2Q09 vs +0.44 2Q08)

Tues : CocaCola ( +0.89 vs +1.01) Apple (+-1.16 vs +1.19) Yahoo( +0.08 vs +0.10) Catepillar, Merck, Dupont

Wed : Boeing (+1.21 vs+1.16) Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, ebay

Thus : AT&T(+0.51 vs +0.76) Microsoft ( +0.36 vs+ 0.46) Amazon. June existing home sales ( est 4.80 million unit) , Weekly jobless claims

MarketWrap: the best week this year...

Regional blooms further. HS strong on financial/property stocks.


Fbm/Fkl produced the strongest weekly gains this year, +53 and +60 respectively as strong US 2Q09 result reignited massive buying interest in the equity/commodity class.


Both mkt closed near record high or near 1-year high on a fresh breakout above 1100. This means strong likelyhood of a 1100-1150 trading range next week. Dilemma: chase the mkt or risk missing the train ?


The mkt is bullish, likely to trend above short term support. But in danger of a sharp pullback towards 7SMA. Next week, new long must have a good stop strategy in place. It may seem way overdone w/o a correction first but mzjor upside target is around 1150++. At moment, selling is for trading or intra-day


Hopefully, BoA and Citigroup will not spoil the party. Let finish the week with a bang…Mr.DJ. !. Their result should provide a better indication of US financial situation, as they are the most affected by the financial crisis, unlike Goldman and JP Morgan, the best of the worst.

FKLI : morning gossip....1115-1120 start

DJ +90/+1%, again on strong profits result. This time JP Morgan provide the boost.

8.34 : DJ futs -18 NK +34 Kos +12. Commodity higher.

FKLi would probably experince the same pattern like yesterday...higher then lower. Cautious tone will prevail with big gains.

The mkt may revisit yesterday's high but another new year high will likely to attract selling ahead of the weekend.

Still, above 1110 is an intra-day buy mkt.

MarketWrap : profit taking but still bullish...

A clear case of profit take after a steep climb. The only suprise is the Fkli can find strong bargain at such high lvl. The mkt remains bullish but require strong gains from DJ tonight for another boost. Otherwise, the mkt is likely to experience some pullback first ahead of the weekend.

Its risky for posntion long at such lvl, given the gap between its last price and 7SMA. Technically, a pullback towards 7SMA can be expected unless external factors continue to churn out very positve gains for few consecutive days.

Focus now : trading-sell for a pullback.

Dear Anonymous .....answer below

data is manual-masuk.

FKLI : morning gossip...1110++...target 1140 ??

DJ +260/+3%, with all three major gauges jumping at least 3% after Intel's forecast for a second-half pickup and the Federal Reserve's improved outlook reassured wary investors. CNN

8.20 : DJ futs -16. NK +230/+2% Kos +1%. Crude oil +2%. Positives external continues...

While the market will start the day on positive tone, Fkli is likely to open flat folliowing a jump of 7 points in the preclosing phase. It may pick up more momentum later but expect to stay near 1100-1110 un till FBM catches up. At +1.5%, Fbm is seen at 1113.

No clear resistance from 1100 till 1135++.

Will profit take set in ? no one can tell exactly. but at mom, we cant assume that the mkt is "too hihg" yet. Wait for negative developement first, rather than trying to catch the "top".

Above 1100 today , avoid short first. either sell at mkt's target around 1140++, assuming a potential toppish scenario or trading-sell on weakness below 1100.

MarketWrap : riding on a bullet train...zroom..year high

A continuation of bullish tone as 2Q09 profits continues to "better" estimates. Financial stock lead prices higher.

Fbm/FKLi hit 11-month high as fresh technical related buying joined the game. Morning was express train, a 1 or 2 stopover but in the afternoon the mkt was riding on bullet train...no stop.

Players chase the mkt for fear of missing the train to a point where sustainabilty become an issue.

Fkli hit high of 1110 after the July09 jumped 7 points in the preclosing phase.. making it the largest premium over fbmklci this year. at 13 point

At uncharted zone this year right now, so it can be volatile. An uptrend mkt..so buy at support lvl...buy on strength is for big risk taker....for fear of a swift pullback.

Sell-on-weakness, say below 1100. Selling is for intra-day n trading only.

FKLI: morning gossip...higher on DJ futs..1082++

DJ +27

8.35 : DJ futs +60, very strong indication. NK +50/0.5% Kos 2%

While DJ finished +ve overnight, the gains were smaller than expectations. But DJ futs is picking up some momentum this morning. Can the sustain ysterday run up ? Yes, but do cautious around 1090 lvl as profit take is likely to set in.

Above 1080, a buy market targeting resistance lvls. Below is a trading sell, targeting first 1076.5 the immediate support, and if external factors get worse, probably 1070-1080 range.

1076-1093 "normal" range.

MarketWrap: a big reversal..banking stock is the king!

Fbm produced the strongest performance in 12-days as financial stocks lead the bull charge. Fkli at 9-day high, having to reluctantly keep up with Fbm. Fkli saw massive short covering above 1073.

The whole world was reacting to positive outlook in financial sector after a (yes a, a very powerful a) banking analyst upgrades US 2Q profits for financial sector.

The sudden surge made the 2-week old downtrend line obsolete. But it seems overdone, the feeling is too fast.

Above 1080 is a buy, targeting at the recent high, the upper range of its consolidation band. Trading sell-0n-weakness below 1080.

Yet to plot a short-term uptrend line, will do so only if there is a breakout above 1092++.

FKLI: morning gossip....1062-1073

DJ +180/+2%, stocks surged Monday, with financial and consumer shares leading the advance, as investors welcomed an analysts' improved outlook on Goldman Sachs one day ahead of its quarterly report. .CNN

8.30 : DJ futs -5. NK and Kos +2%

Fkli is likely to return to it recent resistance lvl near 1070. It represents a 1% gains, which is small compare to the norm of 2% at the moment, however, FBM will have to lead from 1070 and above.

The question is can external factors 100% reverse yesterday's negativeness in a single day. I think the mkt will remain cap by the recent resistance to the upside today. Another consolidation day....blah blah boring

Above 1060 is a buy mkt today.

MarketWrap : resilient but technically downward-bias already...

Regional down 2% to 3%. It was a negative tone throughout the day on talks of China tightening monetary policy, North Korea geopolitical concerns, falling commodity price. Without fresh positives, mkt tilts to the negative side ahead of earnings report.

Despite weak ringgit, Fbm/fkli very resilient, maybe political premium?. Mkt recouped some losses after 4.00pm as players decided to keep the mkt in range following European +ve actions.

FBM’s gaming and plantation sector were weakest today

Fkli near term uptrend outlook is over due to a lack of sustainability power today. While the mkt is still far from being bearish, I think the mkt will consolidate in the near run and at this point its downward-bias range – coz below 1070, below SMAs and below the newly establish 2-week old downtrend line.

Downward risk is represented by the “ascending triangle” ( red lines)

If your strategy is to take position in the direction on the major trend, probably it would be awhile before you can create fresh long.

FKLI : morning gossip....trap 1060-1070

DJ -34 overnight but DJ futs +30 at 8.35 am local time.

8.35 : mixed regional, flat. NK +21 Kos -13.

FKLI is seen stuck at 1060-1070 range. FBM must cross above 1070 to cheer up the mkt. Otherwise a boring mkt till Tues awaiting fresh signal from US after its earnings report. At the moment the mkt is upward bias.

Economic data week ahead : US focus...

and the start of 2Q09 earnings report....the first batch this week ....a total of 31 or 6% companies of the S&P500

selected fews...mostly financial-related stocks

Tues : June retail sales ( est +0.5%) Goldman Sachs ( est +$3.48 per share 2Q09 vs +$3.44 per share 2Q08) ,Johnson & Johnson ( est +1.11 vs +1.18), Intel ( +0.07 vs +0.28)

Thus : JP Morgan Chase ( +0.04 vs +0.58), Google ( +5.05 vs +4.63) IBM ( +2.02 vs +1.98)

Fri : June housing start and building permits ( est. at 530k unit and at 523k unit ) BoA ( +0.24 vs +0.72) Citigroup ( -0.26 vs -0.49), GE ( +0.23 vs +0.54)

Can results beat high forecast this time around unlike the 1Q09 "low expectation" forecast ?

Above expectations could help to reverse some of this month negativeness and reinstate the mkt uptrend tone.

MarketWrap : dragging its feet...no breakthrough

FBM finished higher on improved technical outlook. Fbm/Fkli were firm as prices navigate in positive-bias zone following yesterday’s rebound. However, soft and directionless external factors prevent a breakout above SMA resistance.

FKLI record low daily volume this year, at 4010 lot for all months.

At 1060-1070 is actually guessing game. Neither +ve ,as below SMA nor –ve as above the redline.

Technically, maybe a positive-bias one as we have to give credit to its resilient performance by regaining the red-line or 1060 – this week. This week, external negatives were a drag.

I think the mkt is incline to climb higher next week.

Bursa Malaysia : Update...new tick structure

As a result of a merger between the Main and Second board, BM is proposing a new tick struture for its products, tentatively in August.

Above is the summary, check with your dealer/remisier for details.

FKLi : morning gossip....1060-1065

DJ +4, off highs, initial jobless claims come in below consensus, a good sign for the labor market. but fail to inspire the mkt.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell to 565,000 last week from a revised 617,000 the previous week. That was short of the 603,000 new claims economists expected, according to a Briefing.com survey. CNN

8.35: DJ futs -4, NK +38 Kos +4

With DJ failing to provide the expected push, FKLI is seen soft at 1060-1065 till FBM opens.

But, with better-than-expected US job data it could reduce or even reverse the current negativeness at least till the US 2Q reporting at the end of the months. I guess the mkt just need more time to digest the data.

MarketWrap : the end of recent selling mode ? high probability

-Regional firm, led by China on strong June car sales. Europe also higher on China new data that reinforces economy recovery story and Alcoa’s beat-consensus 2Q09 report. DJ futs points to stronger US tonight .

-Fbm/fkli ‘sleep” until 3.45 before making a move higher as momentum finally gain traction, convince by Europe gains. Earlier, pressure by plantations stock. Fbm later make gains on telcos, finance, YTLCorp

-Fkli really “wants” to rebound first…targeting 1080++. Just waiting for strong leads…. especially our own Fbm. As long as fkli stays above the uptrend line, the mkt is deemed in a “rebound’ phase in the coming days, if not a continuation of its uptrend. A strong confirmation will appear if it crosses ALL the short term SMAs.

-A strong US jobs report could trigger a rebound mode across all mkts, a change from the recent sell mode in the coming days.

Bursa Malaysia : Update...........

Reminder : BM main board and second board will merge in Aug.

FKLI : morning gossip....1060

DJ +14, quiet ahead of jobs report today.

8.25 : DJ futs +20 NK NK -1% exporters down on strong Yen. Kospi +3. Commodity trading 2-3% lower. Crude oil near US$60.

FKLi is seen firm near 1060 before HS opens. July seen narrowing its discount to fbm as its support is likely to be at 1060. A strong FBM, above 1066 would encourage fkli to take 1065 mid point.

MarketWrap : negative but holding hope for another day...

-Overall, a negative mkt. However, "over-done" and " DJ may rebound" assumptions prevented any major setback today on bargains buying.

-In a very quiet day, FBM managed to hold above 1060 ignoring external weakness, thanks to Maybank and telco stocks.

-Fkli struggled to keep FBM's pace to crossover 1060. It did, however, continued to afloat above the uptrend line despite not so encouraging environment.

-Technically, the mkt is ready for a rebound, just waiting for DJ cues.

FBM KLCI index..changes on OHLC recording..

Under FTSE methodology, FBMKLCI daily opening price is "the previous day closing price".

Why ? They use 9:00:00 as the first tick ( mkt opens at 9:00:00) but continuous trading only start at 9:00:15. So, at 9.00.00 the price is the same as the previous day closing.

Impact :

1) as the day opening price is always "the previous day closing" there will be no gap up/down on the FBMKLCI daily chart.

2) the day high/ low may or may not necesasary "reflect" the day actual high/low. For instance , if a previous day closing is 1070 and the "actual high" for the next trading day is 1069, the high for that day will be recorded as 1070 not 1069. As the opening price is 1070 at 9:00:00 am, higher than 1069.

Just need to get use to it!

FKLI : morning gossip..mid point 1055

DJ -161/-2%, falling to two-month lows, as fears that the market has gotten ahead of any economic recovery were ramped up ahead of the start of the quarterly reporting period...CNN

8.30 : DJ futs -5 NK -1% Kos-0.5% Commodity prices suffer another selloff.

FKLi is seen aounrd 1050-1060. Due to it already discount, FKLi is seen wihtin 1055-1060 , with FBM support seen at 1060, in initial trades till HS opens. But, would not disocunt a breakdown scenario.

MarketWrap : mostly 1060-1065 range...quiet day

Regional holding well with mixed tone but saw more selling pressure towards the end as commodity prices started to slip after Europe mkts opened. Crude oil extends it down fall, possibly aiming $55-60 range.

FBM steady but no upside momentum. This helps Fkli to afloat above 1060. While short of fresh sell-signal today, sentiment remains fragile amid falling commodities. Still waiting for a clearer direction- SMA lines are so messy at the mom.

Crude oil bearish technical outlook in the coming days, that could affect FBM plantation stocks., would temper any strong recovery soon . Players that bet on a rebound will be the mercy of Thu’s US weekly data. If it’s a +ve data, a sustainable rebound from recent selling could well take place. In the meantime, the mkt have to struggle to hold firm till external improves.

FKLI : morning gossip...O1063++, 1060-1075

DJ +40, a late-session run up in biotechs and consumer issues helped the Dow turn positive.

8.30 : DJ futs -10 NK -4 Kos +5 Commodities stready

Even though it was a last min thing, DJ better-than-expected closing would spark short covering here. but trend is unlikely to turn +ve on a daily basis, may back to neutral zobe at best. The erratic "one-day-up-one-day-down" stance seems to be the flavor recently!

As far as SMA lines are concerns, cluster together and flat, point to zero direction. Position traders are likely to stay out in mkt like this.

Below 1070, still a sell mkt. 1070-1074 neutral.

MarketWrap : nearing bearish signal...

Commodity prices weighed on the global equity, an extension of last week negative outlook. Crude oil fell 4%, at $64, with bounce-from-support seen at $60. China hopes of recovery failed to inspire the rest today. SH +1%, HS and NK –1%

FKLI saw stop triggered at 5pm after failure to hold above 1060. Losses extended on cut loss selling in late trading. Internally, the mkt will continue to dig south in search for a credible short-term support. To reverse this trend July09 must trades above 1075++.


The mkt is very close of making a bearish signal, meaning if it breaks the uptrend line ( red line). But at the same time, the mkt could be at the tail end of 1st round of selling, So pay extra attention of price action around the red line.

Assuming no breakdown from the uptrend line (red line), this could signal a fresh uptrend and with greater momentum as the mkt “retested” critical support lvl. In short, do not sell too early into a rebound from critical technical support. So the next round is to 1) sell-on-breakdown and buy-on-strength.

Wathc out for crude oil price movement. If $60 hold, equity mkt will rebound.

FKLI : mroning gossip...1075-1080

8.23 NK -40 Kos +4

FKL is seen trading firm within 1070-1080.

Economic data week ahead: US focus

selected few :

Wed: G8 meeting begins through Fri., Alcoa Q2 report

Thus : the usual weekly jobless claims ( usually not a big market-moving news but given DJ Fri's selloff was due to much worse than expected June jobs report, it could have a greater impact this week

MarketWrap : back to square one...no -ve follow thorugh

Defying DJ sharp losses, regional stready as China shares provide comfort. SH ends the week higher, 6% the best week in eight as data points to further economy recovery. As usual fkli was more responsive to its surrounding but upside was drag by klci lukewarm performance.

While fkli managed to shake off sellers aorund 1060++ and strong potential to climb hihger on Mon, until we see a convincing breakout above 7SMA or 1080 the downward remains the same.

And without a breakout higher soon, the chart will start to look like a reverse "W" formation. The first defence is the "red line", followed by the "neck line" around 1030++.

1160-1076 stay out, too ranging. So good opputunity for a breakout strategy.

No US mkt tonight.

FBM KLCI.....trivial............sayonara to KLCI..otsukare!

FBM KLCI ...other highlights and trivial

1) Large concentration of financial and plantation related stocks, almost 55% of market total weightage. Besides banking performance, CPO trend or even crude oil, due to its recent strong positive correlation with CPO, will have a greater influence in deciding the index’s direction.

2) Now you can buy “a stock” via ETF to match the FBM KLCI performance. The current FBM30etf will track FBM KLCI when it is launched. If you are a fan of "bluechips" stock, you can buy a basket of their shares via FBM30etf and hedge your position via FKLI when, and if, the market trends lower.

3) FKLI final settlement value calculation for July09 contracts and onwards will be based on FBM KLCI. FSV calculation is : FBM KLCI data taken from 3:45:15 pm to 4:45:00 pm plus the closing data at 5 pm. It is a simple average of the total 235 values (after taken out 3 highest and 3 lowest values).

4) FBM KLCI will broadcast its index value every 15 seconds vs.. KLCI's every 1 minute. So, there will be less slippage during the day but a big move in the preclosing phase can still happen.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -223/-3%, with the Dow losing 212 points, after a worse-than-expected jobs report hammered hopes that the economy is close to stabilizing. Employers cut 467,000 jobs from their payrolls in June, after cutting 322,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That made June the first month in four in which job losses rose from the previous month. ..CNN

8.30 : DJ futs holiday. NK -1.6% Kos -1% Commodities lower.

FKLI is seen traidng 1060-1070 range. Below 1067, is an immediate sell mkt.

MarketWrap : back to square one...no +ve follow through

Regional gains erode, European opens sharply lower.

Fkli takes another blow after faling to cross 1090. As external factors gets weaker over time…1090 remains elusive and later its looks like a far-fetched case when fkli dips below 1080 as it chases 1070 instead. While klci firm, its sideways stance is driving me crazy and patience is growing thin.

FKLI losses only put the mkt back to its recent lower ranges but no major blow to the chart outlook. Below 1080 is sell market. Chart looks indecisive and ranging n market is trying to figure a clear direction.

FBM KLCI : stocks weightage................