Economic data week ahead...US focus

selected few...

Mon : manufacturing index

Fri : May jobs report( -550,000 jobs, up 11,000 from April ), umeployement rate ( est 9.2% from 8.9% )

Quick Look : May09 market performance

-Strong commodities price in May. The beginning of commodities bull run in anticipation of a recovery in the US economy?

-Crude oil top the list in May09, while April’s champion. FCPO, took a breather last month and rest at the bottom of the list.

-Gold up on weaker dollar across the board rather than a safe-haven bet. Also, US 10-year bond price continues to languish at the year lows.

-Export-oriented countries make double-digit-% gains in May. On this note, KLCI has a lot to catch up and therefore strong upside potential is insight in June..

FKLI Trading : long again....

Fkli finished higher on "fresh" positive event fron the regional side. ( see MarketWrap) Short covering followed by renewed technical buying pushed fkli to finish at +ve territory again after a minor setback yesterday.

Basically, technical outlook remains the same as at the start of the week- Positve to potential bullish. Hopefully, this time we will see 1070-1100 upper range and not consolidating stuff that is difficult to trade.

MarketWrap: explosive afternoon....

Mkt was jolted in the afternoon after a quiet morning session as regional mkt hit some "first". Like, NK turn +ve, HS hit above 18000 , both for the first time this year. A rise in enrgy price also boosted energy-related stocks.

May09 Equity perfomance

Index/May09%/ytd%

HS +17 +26
TWI +15 +50
NK +8 +7
SH +6 +45
KLCI +5 +19
KOS +2 +24

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +100/+1% , stocks ended a volatile session higher Thursday as the government's most recent debt auction saw solid demand and a rise in oil prices boosted shares of energy producers. ..CNN

DJ futs -5. NK +21. Kos -2

FKLI is seen moving back up towards the middle sideways-range of 1040-1060. The mkt may remain above 7SMA after all for the week but may not reverse this week toppish outlook today.

Buy above 1045.5 for position trade.

FKLi Trading : a shift to negative tone.....

FKLI move lower and testing short term supoprt lvl. FKLi broke 7SMA and could retest the uptrendline around 1020 if mkt opens soft tomorrow. Trading sell can target this lvl.

But, i think the trend will remain positive, so selling is for short term play and ready to long if this support stays.

MarketWrap : weakness continues....

Rather boring day. Weak throughout the day. A bit of selling in fkli after Europe mkts opened lower. However, klci was steady near 1040++ lvl.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -170/-2%.

DJ futs -19. NK -26p. Kos +1p

Without DJ +ve factor and plus poor gdp data, its going to be a tough day for long players. Can 1040-1060 remains or are we looking at 1030-1050 range instead. While mkt is expected to be weak, i do not see a dramatic change in the technical outlook

1030 seems a strong support. buy on strength only today.

What's new : GDP shrank -6.2%

Malaysia 1Q09 GDP fell -6.2%, worse than mkt consensus of -4%.

Impact : negative but not bearish and probably already factor in these past few days.

FKLI Trading : another struggle to the upside...

Technically, the mkt continues to remain in positive-bias area for the past few days but without the “wow” factor. Still, waiting for the next big move, with a wishful “one” towards 1070++. Stoploss is raised again towards 1040 following.

MarketWrap : fail to catch DJ’s bull train….

Major bourses, HS/NK surged, taking cue from DJ, which provided further feel good factor after their government pumped in fresh “stimulus” in the form of tax cut, subsidies and SME loan. SKorea, however, marginally lower, continued to suffer from Big Brother Kim’s annual-event-nuclear threat-syndrome, which usually means an official request for foreign $$$.

HK/CHINA/TAIWAN – Thus holiday
CHINA/TAIWAN - Fri holiday. Therefore, for the month of May, SH +6%, TWI +15%

Our mkt were sluggish and underperformed the rest, continued to witness profit take activities while fresh buying remained sidelines –probably cautious ahead of 1Q09 GDP announcement.

Both klci.fkli struggled to keep its upper-body posture but at the same time, lower-body was steady amid strong external factors. Klci.fkli finished near its intraday low but fkli managed to stay positive due to yesterday sharp discount.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +200/+2% after a report showing consumer confidence hit an eight-month high offset dismal housing news.The index now stands at its highest level since September, when it reached 61.4. But that's still low by historical standards. ..CNN

Europe mkts closed +1%

Currently, DJ futs -12. NK +130/+1% Kos +1%

FKLI will receive a much needed boost after two days of cautious tone. Range probably remains at 1040-1060 but targeting the upper band.

FKLI Trading : testing long conviction...

Technically, further weakness could provide trading-sell opportunity, below 7SMA targeting 14SMA. But market trend is likely to keep its short-term uptrend outlook- buy at support( yellow line or 14SMA) or above 1050++.

MarketWrap : FKLI follows regional sentiment....

Quiet and mostly position adjustment activities. Without US leads, sentiment was weak, but without major selling pressure, as profit taking continues. Fresh positions stay sidelines, waiting for the next move. While sentiment remains fragile, the market is keeping its upbeat outlook and not giving up yet for further upside.

FKLI suffered late selling activities as intra-day sentiment did not improve . Wide discount to KLCI indicates desparate selling or cut loss selling.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ futs +13. NK +48. KOs -21.

External factors were inconclusive but still positive bias.

Klci is seen firm ahead of HS opens. FKLI May09 is seen rangebound 1040-1060 with surprise to the upside.

May09 is called to open within 1047-1050

FKLI Trading : positive, support up.....

Technical outlook remains positive. Support is raised to 1030++ or the 7SMA area.

MarketWrap : higher after a struggle…

Market hit new high but profit taking activities disrupted a smooth upside momentum. Players’ sentiment was generally mixed and cautious today for a lack of clear direction from external mkts.

I was kind of expecting an easy ride to the upside today on follow through but….Still it was a positive performance as klci.fkli finishes above 1050. Market remains positive for long position

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -14 flat for the week. DJ futs +12.

Ringgit at its 2009's strongest against the US dollar this morning, 3.4790. Foreign buying klic again ??

NK +1%. KOs +0.5%

FKLI is seen trending firm to higher today. A good chance to break above new trading range of 1050-1070.

May09 is seen hovering within 1040-1050, awaiting klci opening and direction

Economic data week ahead...US focus

selected few....

Mon : US holiday

Tues : GM deadline to restructure its debt. If Obama disaproval, GM face bankruptcy at the end of this month

Wed: April sales of existing homes

Thus : April new home sales, Dell 1Q09 report ( est +0.23 vs +0.38 1Q08)

Fri : 1Q09 GDP (est -5.5%)

FKLI Trading : strong reversal...engulfing bull...

FKLI hit new year highs on late short covering activities. A strong follow through on Monday will set the mkt tone bullish and a leg up towards 1070++. Will maintain a buy mkt till further negative development.

MarketWrap : reenergize to new highs..

After dancing around 1030 for most part of the day, FKLI decided to head higher after Europe mkts rebounds 1% and DJ futs positive performance in late Asian hours.

Technically, klci.fkli. a very bullish intra-day action amid a closing above 1040 on a weekly basis- meaning the mkt is in good position for more gains next week towards 1100.

For the week, MAy09 +38, KLCI +31.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -130/1.5%. Europe -3% on a potential downgrade of the United Kingdom's credit rating.

DJ futs +5. NK -1% Kos -1%

Another day for profit taking. 1020 should porvide a strong base today. Even though we may not see upside potential today I still believe the market will remain uptrend. Take long if short term support can hold today.

FKLI Trading : minor setback....still long

FKLI dipped below 1030 ....4.51pm onwards after KLCI closed at its intra-day low. A scar but no major damage on the chart yet. Selling are seen mostly profit take related.

Hopefully this is not a prelude to a consolidation phase again, that does not serve breakout strategy well.

Still, any weakness is a good entry buy for those who are sitting at the sidelines.

MarketWrap : Profit taking but still supported...

A pretty quiet day. ....

FKLI made a brave attempt for year highs but momentum was foiled by weak external factors. Selling interest in klci.fkli emerged in late trading after 4.40pm, catching up with the regional. However, the market managed to keep its composure on bargains and no panic.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -60, market slumped in the final hour of trading after the Federal Reserve reduced its growth targets and raised unemployment expectations. The central bank also said it expects a recovery in sales and production to begin during the second half of the year...CNN

Europe closed mostly higher, about 1%.

DJ futs -10. NK 118/-1%. Kos -3p.

DJ action could briefly interupt klci.fkli run but the market is likely to maintain its buy-market today as bargains are likely at lower ranges. The question is whether the mkts will pick up fresh steam later after the expected soft opening.

May09 is seen opening around 1035++ and trading within 1030-1040 awaiting for the next move.

FKLI Trading : new buy today.....

FKLI blasted into new highs today, thanks to KLCI super-strength. While worries of "overdone", technical outlook looks very promising for a next attempt near 1070 if not 1100 towards the month end.

MarketWrap : Bullish going forward....

KLCI strength lasted throughout the day despite weak external factors....amid buying in bluechips counters. It seemed new money had entered the market from the sidelines....most likely local maybe the newly launched TIA ?? KLCI finished at year-high

FKLI got dragged along and triggered a technical breakout scenario. More upside is seen in the near term. Game plan : take long position for long term play, with stop below 1000.

fKLI : morning gossip

DJ -30, lack follow through after the Commerce Department reported record lows for housing starts and building permits in April.

DJ futs +2. NK +100/+1%. Kos +2.

FKLI is seen range bound as the current external factors would not be enough to trigger a major breakout. I suspect profit taking may set in first. Major move is only expected after HS opens.

FKLi is seen opening lower around 1023. Day range is seen at 1016-1040. While May09 is in positive territory, SMAs are not encouraging yet-t oo small of a gap between 7 and 14 SMA. At best, signals are mixed now.

FKLI Trading : bad day....buy stop triggers

Short position was shortlived. Did not turn new long amid its wide premium over cash. After all, its still bound within recent band.

Game plan: buy above 1039. Stay out if mkt continues to inside the red band

MarketWarp : FKLI strong reversal and is back to recent high…..

FKLI riding on external factors and changed to positive tone. But volumes were mild and many shorts were stopped out above 1020.

The effect of a “DJ strong rebound after a mild pullback” was surprisingly powerful and lured investors in droves on Monday. Players re-focus on signs of an early turnaround in the global economy. ... ahead of US critical housing data today. It seems players are more willing to bet on the positive side.

Plus, banking sector up on news that US major banks may soon repay government bailout funds. Commodities stock up. And basically everything just followed…

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +235/3% on home improvement retailer's, Lowe, upbeat outlook, a positive housing private report ahead of Tues data and a Bank of America's stock upgrade by Goldman Sachs.

DJ futs +2 Nk +255/+3% Kos +2%

FKLi is seen opening higher within 1015-1020 range. Upside target is 1030++. A bull mkt to begin with, no doubt but can the mkt main tain above short term SMA. The mkt is unlikely to make bullish move but is likely to shift it negative to neutral, if not, positive ( middle band of the recent trading range)

Trading short positions need to be reevaluated if mkt closes above 1015.

FKLI Trading : short-ed today...

Short-ed when 1000 breaks but have to bear with closing above 1000. Keeping the "short" as scenario remains negative in the near term( pullback mode + below SMA) - tight stoploss in place as mkt trend is still bullish. Therefore, will reverse and turn long if 7SMA is breached on a closing basis.

MarketWrap : FKLI not so bearish after all….or not yet!

Negative but both klci.fkli performed better that expected thanks to external factors. - Regional : morning down on DJ and afternoon up on China. HS did a ‘V” bounce from –230 to +230 in PM. Plus India’s Sensex up 17% following a sweeping election victory for the ruling coalition.

KLCI managed to absord selling pressure near 1000 before bouncing. FKLI crawled back above 1000 but cautious tone remains. Quiet day. Still, a sell market until it can break above short term SMA.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -62/-1%.

NK -230/-2.5%, on tech shars and stronger yen. Kos -1%

DJ futs -26.

FKLI negative tone will continue and the qusition is whether 1000 can hold today. May09 is seen trading one band lower of 1000-1010. 1000 is in danger if KLCI trades below 1010.

Economic data week ahead...US focus

selected few ...US focus

Tues : April housing start ( est 527k unit vs 510k March), April building permit (est 530k unit vs 516k March), Home Depot 1Q09 result

Weds : Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is expected to testify before the Senate Banking Committee about the government's bank bailout plan.

FKLI : 1010.0/1015.0/1003.0/1010.0/+7.0/+0.7%

Regional higher 1% to 2%, tracking DJ.

DJ futs +20. Europe mixed and mostly flat.

KLCI 1014.12/+2p. Off highs in the afternoon on knee jerk reaction over news of H!N1 flu virus in Malaysia.

No major moves today. Waiting for a breakout of it"triangle" to initiate new trades.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +46, bouncing back after several down sessions as investors weighed some weaker-than-expected reports with growing economic optimism. Europe closed higher about 1% to 2%.

Early today's morning, NK +54/+0.5% . Kos +1%

Will our mkts recover ? Maybe 1000 will hold afterall, which means a likelihood of a trade range bound. Probably another boring day.

Below 1020 is still a downward-bias mkt.

FKLI is seen hovering around "tenten" in initial trading.

Intra-day strategy : 1) sell below 1000 or around 1020. 2) Buy above 1013.

FKLI : 1010.5/1013.0/1002.5/1003.0/-18.0/-1.8%

Regional tumbled about 2% and HS fell 3%

DJ futs -11. Europe early trading mixed. KLCI 1011.99/-11/-1%

FKLI distant itself from 1010 after KLCI closing, which is the day’s low.

Weak sentiment continued throughout the day, no sign of any rebound. FKLI paused near immediate support of 14SMA. If DJ takes another dive tonight, a fresh leg down towards the down-arrow tip level is possible, especially if 1000 breaks.

A sell-market below the newly established downtrend-line.

FKLi : morning gossip

DJ -184/-2% on weaker-than-expected retail sales

DJ futs -8. Nk -219/-2% Kos -1%

Time for steeper consolidation ? Yes , towards the recent lower ranges but expected to hold above 1000 today. Immediate support is seen at 1005.

The mkt is likely to stay as a sell mkt todayWill reevaluate for upside potential, if any, during the course of day after the market absords all selling pressure.

Below 1020, a sell market.

FKLI : 1020.5/1027.0/1016.0/1021.0/-4.5/-0.4%

Regional higher by 1% except HS down –0.5%. DJ +15

Cash –1022.8/-0.18

A quiet day and mkts remained in congestion area. FKLI moved in and out of 1020 but failed to provide clear direction

One day looking up the next day looking down. Tired, probably stay out if within 1010-1030 ( 1% plus or minus from 7SMA) to prevent false trades

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +50p.

DJ futs +4p. NK +40 Kos+10

FKLI is seen starting postive and probably looking at 1020-1032 range. Could scale higher if cash can break above 1030. Above 1020, FKLI is a positive market.

FKLI : 1017.0/1028.5/1008.0/1025.5/+10.5/+1.0%

Regional mixed. HS led higher in the afternoon, +65. NK -153p.

DJ futs turned positive at 4pm local time, from –60 to +40.

Cash 1020.18/1023.7/1013.36/1023.02/-2.48/-0.2%


FKLI higher on late buying interest after 4pm. A “follow through sell market” was shortlived, now that it managed to recapture 7SMA. Likely to erratic/confuse if market trades within 1020-1040 range

Market seemed well supported today, did not pose any major danger near 1000. The mkt is taking each support as a springboard to bounce higher. While still short of a bullish breakthrough today, the mkt managed to prevent further damage and stay neutral…at the mercy of US tonight again.

Below 1032, downward-bias still. Above 1032 could signal fresh leg up again.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -155/-2%, no major news, sjut backing off

DJ futs -39 NK -76/-1% Kos 0.5%

Follow through of yesterday's sentiment will continue today, targeting another 10 ot 15 points lower. With cash support seen at 1010 today. FKLI is expected to find support at 14SMA, yellow line near 1000

To the upside, intra-day resistance is lowered to 1020. But a consolidation at best, till a clear buy signal emerges.

FKLI : 1029.0/1035.0/1015.0/1015.0/-17.0/-1.6%

Regional moved south in the afternoon as rumors of BoA selling its stake in CCB after the lock up period that expire last week, dampening HS and SH markets.

Dj futs -80. NK +19p HS-300p

Cash 1025.5/-1. Flat, toppish but no major damage yet, above 1020.

FKLI profit taking was more extensive and significantly dipped below 7SMA. Immediate tone is "pullback' towards 1K if mkt opens soft tomorrow. To reverse this, the mkt needs to regain 1032. In the meantime, the Q is whether the recent long term uptrend will remain intact.

Below 1032, near-term sell.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +164/+2%

DJ futs -30. NK +50. Kos +2.

US strong follow through will serve as the catalyst for FKLI to break into new higher ground today and establish a new band of 1040-1070 this week??

The above view will remain is 1020 support stays.

Immediate support is raised to 1032. May09 is seen opening 1032-1035.

Economic data week ahead...US focus

Wall Street ended last week on a high note after the government said employers cut fewer jobs than expected last month The Dow and S&P 500 both closed at more than 12-year lows on March 9th. Since then, the Dow has gained 31%, and the S&P 500 has gained 37.4%.

selectted few....

Tues : 1Q median home prices

Wed : April retail sales ( est 0.1% vs -1.2% in MArch)

Thus : Wal-Mart ( est +0.77 1Q09 vs +0.76 1Q08), April PPI

Fri : April CPI ( est unchged vs -0.1% in March )

Bursa News....

Bursa will merge Main board and Second board in August.

FKLI : 1026.0/1034.5/1018.0/1032.0/0.0/0.0%

Regional reversed early losses to finish +ve as DJ futs gains raised bulls’ enthusiasm for next week race.

DJ futs +60

Our mkts were softer but downside seen limited on bargains, like yesterday. Toppish but within neutral range of 1020-1040.

Cash 1026.78/+3. +36p this week.

The feeling is that mkt is getting ready for another run up next week. So unless DJ-factor tumbles, it could well be a fresh bull next week, 1040-1070, 1070-1100. 7SMA will serve as bulls’ defence. Anything in between,1020-1040 is traders’ market.

FKLI :morning gossip

DJ -100/-1%. NK +10 Kos +6

DJ futs +37p

FKLI is expected to trade soft today and is likley to stay within 1020-1030 in initial trading. 7SMA will serve as strong support if 1020 breaks.

Below 1032 is trading sell maket today.

The bank stress result may trigger profit take but unlikely to change recent bullish tone

FKLI : 1032.0/1038.0/1024.0/1032.0/+4.0/+0.4%

Regional mostly higher but cautious tone prevailed on profit take activities. HS led +2%, NK +4.5% playing catching after long breaks.

DJ futs +38p ahead of bank stress test result.


Cash 1023/-0.5 retreated in pm. FKLI maintained its premium, taking cue form DJ futs.

Market looks toppish now on profit take but underlying tone remains unchanged yet. So, a fresh high could entice buying interest. But I don’t think we will see another convincing fresh breakout for the rest of the week. After all, 1040++ are significant resistance level. Trading-sell if below 1030.

Remember, above 7SMA is still a position-buy mkt

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +100/+1%, after reports about the government's "stress tests" suggested that the major banks are better capitalized than some had thought. Also helping: jobs reports that suggested the pace of the slowdown is easing.

DJ futs -7p.

NK +124/+1%. Kos +1.4%

Our mkt is in a good position to place itself near another peak of 1040.35/cash and 1039/flki.These two are considered the main resistance before the next hurdle of 1100. 1100 seems a better bet next week as the mkt obective for the rest of this week is to tackle 1040-1050 resistance and stay above 1000.

Above 1020 is a long mkt. Below 1020 is trading sell, targeting 1000++.

FKLI : 1005.0/1030.5/998.5/1028.5/+22.5/+2.2%

DJ –10p, off lows

Regional higher on HK and STI. HK +400/+2%, 7-mth high on financial stock (see breaking news) STI +5%, Citi targets rise in Straits Times Index to 2,400

Cash 1023.96/+15/+1.5%

A strong reversal occurred in the afternoon amid regional feel good factors. Cash and FKLI turned bullish again and ready for a fresh leg up. Support is raised to 1020.

Breaking News : A shift of sentiment...

Equity sentiment turned bullish in the pm, leads by HS.

HONG KONG, May 6 (Reuters) - HSBC Holdings shrugged off concern about U.S. bank stress tests to rise 3.9 percent on Wednesday after a brokerage house upgraded the stock and another UK bank reported stellar first quarter performance.

JPMorgan raised the stock to a neutral from its earlier underweight rating, crediting its stronger capital position and relatively inexpensive valuation.

Fellow UK bank Standard Chartered jumped 5.8 percent after it weathered the financial crisis to report record first-quarter profits, reaping the benefits of a focus on Asia and a resilient loan book. -Reuters

FKLi : morning gossip

DJ -16 on profit take.

DJ futs -7. NK holidays. Kos +2p

Not so much of outside factors today.

FKLI is slightly negative, below 912.5, with downside risk towards 7SMA/990++ after yesterday perfomance. Market is likely to remain quiet, ranging and cautious ahead of US 19 banks stress test due out Thus. The question is whether we are looking at 990-1000 band or 1000-1010 today.

FKLI : 1020.0/1021.5/1000.5/1006.0/-6.5/-0.6%

Regional firm, up less than 1%, on bargains after a spate of profit take activity.

Cash maintains above 1000 at 1008.87/-0.5 but not fresh momentum till 1020 breaks this round.

In the meantime, consolidate, if below 1012.5 and downward risk towards 7SMA before bargain activities

FKL : morning gossip

DJ +214/+2.6% Wall Street rose Monday, pushing the major gauges to multi-month highs, as a better-than-expected housing market report The March pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors up 2% from February, surprising economists who were looking for the index to hold steady. -CNN

DJ futs +6p. NK and Kos holiday ( children's day)

FKLI bullish will continue and could move to 1020-1040 range if prices steady above 1010.

May is seen 1015-1020 at the opening.

FKLI : 1000.5/1018.0/998.0/1012.5/+24.0/+2.4%

Equity soars on hopes that global economy is “U”-ing following strong economy data from US (consumer spending) and China (manufacturing sector)

HK, China’s proxy, +860/+6%, at 6-mth high.

Export oriented mkts, TWI and STI also bullish, +6%.

China mkts up 3% at 9-mth high.

Our mkt, cash +1009.36/+19p/+2% at 7-mth high FKLI on premium stance as indicators still bullish. Upside objective for this round seen at 1040++. Therefore do adopt a bullish stance if mkt stays above 1000 in the coming days

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +26/0.3% over the long weekedn here.

DJ futs +23. Nk holiday Kos +16p

Technically, FKLI seen testing 1k or higher after a change of sentiment last Fri. Above 980 is a positive market but fresh bulls is only expected above 1000. The question is can FKLI breaks abvoe 1000 or just sideways within 960-1000 range in the near term.

FKLI is seen ranging within 983-994 initially.

Economic data this week : US focus

selected few.....

Mon : March pending home sales report

Tues : Walt Disney ( est +0.40 1Q09 vs +0.60 1Q08 )

Weds : Cisco Systems ( +0.25 vs +0.38)

Thus : AIG ( -0.06 vs -1.41 )

Fri : employment data

At a glance...markets perfomance in April 09