BMD Turnover data -March 09

March 09

FCPO turnover, which represents 60% of BMD volumes, rose 20% while FKLI up 20% from February’s low figure

BMD activities picked up in the first-half of March when the markets were mostly lower. But trading activities decreased later when prices reversed. Obviously, retail players were keen bears. Foreign players were equal on both sides given the roll-over activities that were mostly flat. Roll-over volumes in March was seen up 5% from last month but still down by more than 50% y-o-y.


1Q09

BMD 1Q09 turnover dipped 21% compared to 1Q08. The main culprit was FKLI which saw a 42% decline. FCPO, while still near record high level, lost 0.6% for the same period. These two made up of 98% of BMD total turnover

Asian Equity Perfomance - March09

ytd %/Mar09 %

TWI +14/+14
SH +30/+14
KSP +7/+14
NK -9/+7
STI -4/+7
HS -6/+6
KLSE -1/-2

FKLI :Recap 870.5/874.0/868.5/871.0/+4 Expired

Mar expired. Apr 864.0/875.5/864.0/875.5/+12.5, catching up with cash.

Cash 872.55/+3.2. DJ futs +80p.

In quiet trading, mkt rushed higher towards the end on the back of DJ futs +80P and HS gains.

FKLI remains neutral and the enxt move is to test resistance, 7SMA, after today's firmness around support level. Trading buy or position-sell below 860.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -254p/3.2%. NK +13P KOS +7P. DJ futs +30P.

DJ fell additional 1% from the mkt expectation but DJ futs is seen +ve and this is a relief and could spark buybacks. Overall sentiment however will remain soft. DJ futs is the key today.

I think yellow-line support will hold today. But any upside is limited at 880.

FKLI : Recap 886.0/886..0/864.0//886.0/-20

Equities mkt took a dive in the PM session as GM/Chrysler news dominated players sentiment (see below: breaking news) NK/HS/STI down 4%. The rest lost between -1 to -3% range. DJ futs –190 at 5.15pm.

Our cash –16.09/–2% at 869.34. FKLI –20p at 867.0.

FKLI took out multiple supports. Next sell call is when it breaks the yellow line (14SMA), targeting the down-arrow. If firm tomorrow, the mkt can bounce towards the pink line (7SMA)

TAKE NOTE that Asia mkt already factored-in a 200 drop in US tonight. Don’t be surprise if FKLI opens firm if US falls less than 200p tonight.

Breaking News

Obama administration rejected GM and Chrysler restructurig plan and could be put through bankruptcy. Asia equity markets react negatively. The mere mentioned of bankruptcy and Obama's hard line spook investors.

DJ futs -150p (3.00 pm). NK -4.4%, HS -4.4% (3.00 pm)

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -1.9% overnight. DJ futs -24p. NK -26p Kos +4p

FKLI is seen soft, opening 880-883. If 880 breaks, next support is 873. Upside immediate target is 887.

Economic data ahead : US focus

selected few...

Thurs : weekly jobless claims ( est 655k vs 652k previous week)

Fri : non-farm payroll ( est -671k vs -651k Feb ), unemployment ( est 8.5% vs 8.1% Feb)

FKLI : Recap 894.0/895.0/882.5/887/0

Despite DJ gains overnight, regional decided to some profits ahead of weekend. Mixed and off highs.

DJ futs mostly minus around –20++ but flat at 5.15 pm. Our cash flat. 885.43/-0.04p. For the week, cash +28p.

Without cash lead, FKLI down on profit take but managed to hold firm without any significant damage to short term outlook except a black candlestick. Weekly +26.5.

Next week: players can sell if there is no trade above 890 in early part of the week But it may take at least 1-day closing to confirm a pullback phase, targeting yellow-line for the week. If Monday is seen a firm mkt, where cash above 890, look for the upside arrow weekly target.

My take : 2Q bear of bull ? Bull.

US data is showing sign that a recovery phase is ongoing. Housing data in Feb, like housing starts +22%, building permits +6%, new home sales +5% are very encouraging.

The headache of recent crisis are 1) housing 2) financials inst. Housing is improving and next we shall wait for finnacial institution 1Q result.

Are we in the middle of something sustainablity or just bear rally.

I think a very good chance to see bull market.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +174p/2.2% as hopes for a recovery increases. DJ futs -9p. NK +1% Kos +0.5

A strong reason for follow through. While not wanitng to chase if above 895, marekt is seen postive tone troughtout unless intra-day-880-suport breaks.

Upside surprise is 900 if cash convincing above 890.

FKLI is seen near 890++ opening trades.

FKLI : Recap 883.0/891.5/881.0/887.0/+2.5

Regional bullish. DJ fut +70.

Cash 885.47/+6.6, above 100SMA 3-day in a row. Are we in the middle of something sustainable ?

FKLI one step closer to 900. Probably can do a bullish finish for the week or 1Q.

FKLI maintaining a buy stance while new buy signal is above 892. Range 883-900. Not to expect to much of a rally on Friday but wishing for a positive finish, above 880++.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +90p/+1%. DJ futs +18p. Nk -170p. Kos -5p

Our market is likely to test upside but probably a weaker-than-expected in early trading.

FKLI may open soft around 885++ first due to the already big premium over cash.

FKLI 880-892, upper range if cash strong above 880.

FKLI : Recap 878.0/885.5/873.0/884.5/+8

Regional mostly lower. DJ +50p, higher in the LAST 30 mins.

Cash 878.81/+0.89p. Cash turned positive in the LAST 15 mins.

After a quiet day, FKLI got pumped up towards the end of trading. This "LAST-suprise-factor" caught many by "surprise" and therefore partially explained the panic short covering activities.

The mkt is placed in a position to break 886 tomorrow. Cash must trades above 880 to justify FKLI sustainability at 890. If DJ weak, FKLi will then stuck at 873-885 neutral range.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -116p/-1.5%. DJ futs +10p. NK down -62p.

FKLI is likely to start soft, 873-876.5 range and can surprise on the upside. Immediate range is seen at 873-883. FKLI downward risk is to 863++ if 870 fails to hold.

FKLI : Recap 891.0/892.0/873.0/876.5/-6.5

Regional mkts up near 3%. DJ mixed, from –30 to +30. DJ chart still positive, target 8000.

Cash snapped 6-day wining streak to finish flat near intra-day low. Closed 877.92/-0.38p

Our mkts retreated on profit take as players perceived US gains as excessive and may due for a pullback tonight.

Toppish actions serving as a small warning to late bulls. Sentiment remains upbeat but to continue recent strength we need to see the mkt back above 880. Otherwise neutral mkt first, followed by weakness, 7SMA support, on profit take ahead of weekend.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ up almost 7% or 497P. This is definitely more than the 200p anticipated yesterday.

DJ futs is down 4p while NK +2%. KOS +1.2%

FKLI is seen at 880-890 range before cash opens. An attempt at 900 is a stong probability if cash is seen steadty above 880.

Selling has to wait for weakness.....intra-day only.

FKLI: Recap 861.5/886.0/861.5/883.0/+22.5

Regional jumped almost 4% while DJ futs gains top 200p.

Investors cheer as Washington releases strategy details for rescuing the banks. 1) A Public-Private partnership program to buy toxic asset. 2) Expansion of Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility(TALF) to lower-rated mortgage-backed securities to encourage bank lending

Cash 878.3/+21p/2.5%.

FKLI extended its upside all the way above 880, setting a new trading band in the short term. ( white arrow) 900 seems reach-able, all it takes is cash breaks above 880.

Above 880, let it run. Selling is for intra-day strategy.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ futs +71p NK +140p/+1.7%

Despite DJ loss, I believe the mkt can stay on firm footing today, taking advantage last week positives. And a strong chance for further upside if both mkts sustain at support lvl.

Cash 848-863. FKLI 855-870.

Economic data week ahead :US focus

selected few

Wednesday : Feb new home sales ( 300,000 est)

Thursday : Weekly jobless claims, Final reading on 4Q GDP (-6.6% est vs -6.2% previous reading)

FKLi : Recap 857.5/860.5/850.0/860.5/+4.5

Cash H856.82/+4.64/+0.5%. Regional mixed, DJ futs mostly lower, about -50.

Despite range bound, both mkts ended at their upper ranges anticiapting a stronger next week. FKLI took lead from cash firm footing.

Market breath is positive, anticipating a run towards 870 first. 870 is a first stop to check cash perfomance. For a convincing run to 880, cash must break above 860 first.

Next week starts with a buy call first. For selling, 1) wait at resistance lvl , 870++ OR 2) sell if 850/7SMA breaks.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ -1%. DJ futs -19p Nk holiday. KOS +1%

While upside seen limitd, mkt is likely to hold firm within 7SMA and 14SMA.

FKLI is seen opening soft around 850-852 range.

FKLI: Recap 854.0/859.0/850.0/856.0/+2

Cash at 852.18/+4.22. FKLI +5p permium over cash stays for expectatiosn that cash can hit 860 tomorrow.

FKLI reached 14SMA target and saw light profit taking. Cash took one small step higher, above 850 for the first time in five days.

Technically, mixed today but as long as the market maintains near 14SMA/yellow line the market is in a good position for a sustainable run up next week, if both mkt stays above 846++.

To the upside, crossover position-buy above 14SMA; targeting 866++ but take note that cash upward potential is seen limited at 860++ tomorrow.

Below 854, no buy signal tomorrow and players can engage intra-day sell, targeting 7SMA.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +90p/+1%, rallied from low after the Fed announced its plan to increase liquidity in the credit markets over the next six months. The Federal Reserve said it would buy up to $300 billion in long-term government bonds.

DJ fut -32p. NK -11p.

FKLI is seen aiming the upper range of 850-860. Above 7SMA is a buy market. And the next major buy signal is above 14SMA/yellow line. Do not think the market can cross above it THIS week.

FKLI is seen opening aorund 850-854 due to the already premium over cash.

FKLI : Recap 847.0/855.0/846.0/854.0/+12.5

FKLI went ahead of cash ( 847.9/+6p) on technical buying following a break above 7SMA. Regional all positive. But DJ futs negative throughout,-20 to -40.

Cash also managed to stay above the 7SMA. 7SMA now acts as support. Both market is now a buy market but gains for the rest of week is likely to be limited aorund 860 or 14SMA.

Next week, a mini rally can be expected if the market manage to hold above 850, more so if cash finishes above 850.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ rose 180p/2.5% on strong housing starts data. DJ futs -15p. NK +60p/0.7%. KO +0.4%

FKLI is seen drifting again, 840-850 upper range. Opening is seen near 845++. More sustainable upside toward 14SMA is cash is seen breaking 848 level.

FKLI : Recap 842.0/853.0/839.5/841.5/-3

FKLI wanting positive but upside hampered by weak cash mkt. FKLI made a brief jump towards 850 but was pullback later as the cash erased gains. Cash succumbed to profit take sell, from 846 to 842, after DJ futs turned negative from +50p. Another quiet day.

Still waiting for a breakout after 3 days and its not getting any easier finding direction from the chart. Anyway, above 835 or 840 is a trading-buy.

Still, intra-day play, very-short term play and range bound play, 830-850, mkt. Those stuff that make you work very hard but does not pay off well !!!

To the upside, not much expectations but a break above 7SMA tomorrow would target the yellow line (14 SMA).

My take : Maybank rights issue

Goverment bailout ? Yes

FKLI : morning gossip

5 in a row, almost but unfortunately no, as investors were mad with AIG bonuses.

DJ erased gains and finished flat. DJ futs -10p and NK +35p. Everything seems rather calm which is not always a good news especially when it comes to trading.

FKLI is the same story, with upside potential after yesterday closing. if can breaks above 847-850 resistance. 840-847 for the start. Awaiting cash's next move. Do take lead from KLCI. Above 840 is a buy.

FKLI : Recap 844.5/845.0/833.5/844.5/+4

FKLI hit new low but managed to recover strongly in late trading following strong gains in Europe opening. (+2%) and therefore prevented a bearish closing. 830-835 band support stayed today in quiet day. Mostlly range bound within Fri's zone.

Cash mkt continus to underperform causing FKLI to balance near major support lvl and lacking upside momentum. As long as both mkt trades below 7SMA line, its still a downward-bias mkt. But right now, no major selldown scenario yet > above 830.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ futs offsetting Fri's gains, -49. NK is upbeat +1.7%.

Expect FKLI to range bound on firm tone, 835-848.5, and upside momentum is expected to pick up only if cash breaks above 850.

Economic data week ahead: US focus

selected few....

Tuesday : housing start in Feb (453000 est)

Wednesday : interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve at the conclusion of the two-day policy meeting

FKLi : Recap 840.5/846.0/837.5/840.5/+5.5

Losing streak came to an end but lacking upside momentum. And the mkts remain in bear territory. Very quiet day.

FKLI stuck in neutral 835-847, Thu’s range.

Look forward to a breakout strategy, especially downside, next week. A fresh leg-down towards 800 is seen if 830-835 fails to hold in early next week. Upside run is still seen limited if the mkt trades below the pink line or 850.

Any attempts to catch rebound around here must put a sell stop.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +250p/+3.5%. DJ futs -22p n NK +3%

Bull wish for a rebound may come true today. 840-845 for the start but the mkt is unlikely to change the outlook of the chart.

FKLI : Recap 847.0/848.5/835.0/835.0/-12

Another bearish day on follow through selling. Cash already lost 31p over 4 days while FKLI lost 33p over 5 days. Both ventured into oversold territory. Being Friday’s, players should engage sell-on-weakness with much care tomorrow. Below 830 may not be a good idea for fear of a rebound towards the pink-line if correction does happen as 830 is critical support lvl. Tomorrow, selling activity is more for intra-day players.

A breakdown below 830 will drive the mkt towards a new leg down 800 but a safer bet for next week action

Immediate resistance remains at 850-pink line

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ was flat, +4p, managed to hold firm to a 2-day winning streak as Citi indicating profit for its 1Q result. A reversal to profits, the likes of BoA, Citi, could well be the first signal the mkt is bottoming out. Eagerly, awating 1Q reporting season next month. !

DJ fut -27p, NK -1%.

IF no further weakness from yesterday lvls, a bounce is seen towards 860++.

FKLI : Recap 870.5/871.5/846.0/847.0/-14

Despite positive outside factors, both regional and DJ futures…our mkts suffered technical breakdown, both cash/FKLI renewed year-low.

Cash saw selling in the FBM30 counters taking cue from PB. While did not really expect the mkt to rally, today’s cash-negative-territory-losses and FKLI- below-856 were kind of unexpected. News that appeared in mid-afternoon trading blamed political woes ahead of UMNO election.

FKLI suffered worse as recent premium bet was hammered out, causing a fresh bearish outlook, below 856, and back to original dwisde target around 830++. Just I thought today would break the bearish streak for the rest of the week first.

Cut-selling triggered amid a failed attempt to park above pink-line followed by panic selling below 856. Technical rebound is put to the back seat and selling pressure is likely to pile up if mkt opens weak tomorrow, below 850 is a new bear mkt. Same strategy, sell-on-weakness.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ surged 6% on financial stocks led by Citi and news of reinstating uptick rule in short selling.

DJ futs +4p and NK +250p/+3%

Both our mkt are likely to take advantage of the postive factors to recoup some of the recent losses. Cash is seen at 860-870 ranges. FKLI is seen within the pink-line and the yellow-line ranges.

Today's mkt is seen towards trading-buy. Position-sell if the mkt can reach resistance lvl above 880.

FKLI : Recap 861.0/865.5/852.0/861.0/-2

10 points. That is the premium-price futs players were paying to watch mini-budget at 4pm. Probably, too high to pay as cash stuck at year-low. ( 855.25/-2.97p). FKLI/cash recovered from lowest point but also failed to reach any resistance levels.

This second round of economic stimulus, which worth RM60 billion (over two years 2009 and 2010) is the largest in the country history, representing 9% GDP. First round was only RM7b. Deficit is expected to reach 7.6 from 4.8 projected earlier. 2009 GDP is revised to –1 from +1.

Regional mkts recouped some losses and therefore helped to stabilize our mkt sentiment after a long holiday.

Technically, cash is bearish. FKLI seems firm above 856 and no breakdown yet on closing. However, below 7SMA (pink line), is still sell-bias but ONLY to sell on further weakness as cash may rebound after losing more than 40 point in eight days. Plus, RM60 billions package is huge and may provide short-term push.

Position-buy should wait till cash regains 870 (OCO) consider if mkts near the intended near term support around 830++.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ net -1%. While Asian equities performed weak Monday anticipating weaker DJ's Monday, averaging around -2% except HK which tumbled 5%.

DJ futures and NK both are flat currently

FKLI is likely to hold firm till cash opens. Cahs is seen lower first before a possible recovery on mini budget news.

Economic data week ahead : US focus

selected few...

Wednesday(US) : report on the oversight of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), a.k.a. the bank bailout plan.

Thursday(US) : Feb retail sales ( est -0.4%), Weekly jobless claims ( est 640,000)

NEWS : FBM KLCI

-KLCI will be replaced by a new index, FBM KLCI as the mkt benchmark on July 6
-FBM KLCI will only consists of 30 stocks NOT 100 stocks. Therefore it will resemble the current FBM30 stock index
-the exact members of FBM KLCI will be known in June, when the routine half-yearly review is conducted on FBM30
-thereafter, FBM30 will be known as FBM KLCI after resetting its value
-above table > top and bottom 5 weight% difference compare to their repsective weight/% in KCLI currently ( source : THE EDGE)

Good news for the retail players.

1) easier to track and create a portfolio that matches the benchmark

2) you can buy FBM30etf, listed on BM and not via benchmark-tracking-unit trust, to get benchmark-exposure. Save cost. At moment, FBM30etf is rather inactive. (FBM30etf will be rebranded to use FBM KLCI as the indicators)

3) then you can hedge your positions using futures market, if you see downside. Imagine, any retail players can easily hedge their whole portfolio. Starting in June, FKLI's underlying is FBM30.

FBM KLCI ( index) > FBM KLCI( etf tradable like single stock) > FKLI (futures)

FKLI: Recap 863.5/864.0/859.0/863.0/-5

Cash suffered technical breakdown at 858.22/-11 that could see it falls to 835 as the next target unless it recaptures 870.

FKLI longs now can only pray that the mkt will open firm on Tues.- at the mercy of DJ performance tonight and Mon. Some retails are upbeat on the announcement of mini budget on Tues, I heard RM40b. Even so, the mkt is unlikely to break above key resistance on this piece of news.

No major changes to FKLI chart outlook but must really watch out next week. Intra-day range bound trading (buy near support and sell near resistance) is only encourage within the top and bottom red-horizontal lines. Fresh leg-down towards 830 is seen if 856 breaks.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ fell 200 plus point or -4%. NK is near -3%. DJ fut -8. Ringgit is weakest since unpegged. So nothing is positive for the start today here.

Both our mkts are likely to finish near year-low ranges. But further fresh leg down is unlikely today ahead of the long weekend.

Good for intra-day bargain buying near supports once the regional mkts stabilise.

FKLI : Recap 871.0/874.0/866.5/868.0/-4

Cash sucks. As a consolation, cash snapped 5-day losing streak, +2 at 869, and still stuck within 864-871 mini-range for the last three days after a plunge on Monday.

FKLI had near zero chance to really challenge 880 with no helping hands from the cash. FKLI finally caved in late trading on profit take selling.

Just a minor glitch. But bulls should be concern if mkt breaks the first horizontal support and run if it heads further down towards the second horizontal support for closing. Holding longs below these supports require a lot of guts and a lot of luck ahead of the long holiday.

No buy below 872. Expecting the mkt to range within the chart recent comfort zone tomorrow.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ was +2%. DJ futs flat and NK +1% at mom.

Outside positive will reinforce yesterday's FKLI positive action. Will our cash catch up and break above 870 and head towards 880 ? At minimal 1%, the pit stop is 876. So will be very dissapointed if cash does not retest 880 today.

FKLI is a buy above 880, targeting the gap till 888.5, IF cash is not a distant way for catching up game.

FKLI : Recap 860.0/872.0/857.5/872.0/+9

Despite regional surge, our cash mkt was lackluster within Tues range , -1.8 point, and extended its losing streak to five days But FKLI was rather upbeat, premium +5 point to cash, and further technical buy noted

Further technical rebound seen. The mkt is seen heading towards 880 at least if opens firm tomorrow. And whether the mkt will close the gap remains a question to me as cash still technically indecisive. Do not fresh-sell on strength till negative signal appears.

Immediate sell-on-weakness signal is seen if 867. Prefer to stick to position-sell if 856 breaks.

FKLI : morning gossip

Boring!

DJ down marginally -37/-0.5% as early gains eroded of sell-on-strength sentiment. DJ fut +19. NK -99/-1.4%.

FKLI will probably do a half-up half-down thing and is likely to stay rangy somewhere within the two hoeizontal lines till SH or HK opens. Again, 856 must break before a resumption of dwtrend.

FKLI : Recap 856.0/867.0/85.0/863.0/unchged

FKLI finished at lower ranges but a positive candle…confusing! Losses limited on anticipation for a rebound in US mkt tonight. DJ was +80. Not enuf to reverse the bearish trend tough, still very much a bear mkt.

Today’s action indicates mkt may pause first before resuming a fresh leg down. So, position-sell-on-weakness below 856 or sit at the sidelines and see how much the mkt wants to bounce.

Trading-buy if mkt can regain 870 resistance. Otherwise, no point doing range bound trade.

News : Japan Commodity

Asia's top commodity exchange, TOCOM, will start night-time trading in May. Extending trading hours for its products to as late as 11.00 pm (Tokyo time) for all products except rubber.

No lunch break.

Daytime : 9.00am-3.30pm
Night time : 5.00pm - 11.00pm ( rubber till 7.00)

FKLI : morning gossip

Yes, new low today.

DJ pain continues with AIG as the "appetizer". DJ -300 after Asian mkts anticipated a 100 point drop yesterday. DJ futures is up +20. NK trading -2% lower.

FKLI is seen around 850, anticipating a 2% drop in the cash to 858 lvls.

FKLI : Recap 878.0/879.5/861.5/863.0/-25

New 2009 lows tomorrow? Definitely a bearish day that altered chart outlook. Adjustments made. Please refer to above.

However, today’s sharp drop immediately put both cash and FKLI at strong support level or the lower end of the recent trading band. If this support does not break, the mkt may rebound first.

Trading buy if recovers above 870, targeting the upside arrow range.

Sell on weakness below 858, targeting 830 ( the dwside arrow range) in the coming days. Cash below 867 is also a fresh sell call

So the figure to watch out is 858 and 880 if DJ turns positive tonight.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ futs is trading 1% lower while Nk dw almost 3%. Weak sentiment set the tone for this mth, no position- buy signal is expected today. The immediate concern is : can the mkt hold firm , like in the past few weeks ?

FKLI is seen retreating to 880 or retest the uptrend line support.

FKLI : going forward

FKLI stuck at 880-900 lately, failing to clear 100SMA or 900 hurdles despite multiple attempts. Firm at the upper range but I wonder how much internal stimulus could lift the mkt if outside factors remain negative > DJ at 12-year low, Citigroup fiasco, poor earnings reports continues and Malaysia 1Q09 and 2Q09 GDP are likely to be negative.

It’s tough to place a scenario (easier to just wait for technical signals in the short term or economics data in the long term) but if I do, I would imagine the worst-case scenario.

For this month, we can expect a range of 865-910 range, which is still a consolidation band.

TOP & BOTTOM 5 : y-t-Feb perfomance

TOP ( 1-5) : Silver(+16%), Sugar, Platinum, SH, FCPO
BOTTOM (1-5) : DAX (-20%). DJ, S&P, Wheat, CAC

BMD- Recap

-BMD trading volumes down 22% so far this year vs. Jan-Feb08.

-While FCPO volumes still at last year’s record high level, actually +2% y-o-y, FKLI trading slumps 44% y-o-y., near 2006 pace, as the exodus of foreign participation continues, albeit at a slower pace in Feb09.

-Tracking roll-over activities, foreign activities is seen minus 10% every month since Aug08 till Jan09. In Feb09, it registers a -2% m-t-m drop. Roll in Feb09 dips 46% y-o-y.

-Historical volatility now stands at 40%/FCPO and 20%/FKLI, both down about 50% from their peak late last year. Boring days ahead!