Wednesday, August 19, 2009

MarketWrap : in danger of another breakdown...


After a cautious AM, prices fell sharply in the afternoon on China selloff. But activities were generally quiet, no buyers, just factoring in China losses. Fkli stuck near 50, just 3 points range in the afternoon.

Despite yesterday’s hope, chart outlook turning for the worse – reinforcing a trading-sell mkt for awhile before you see uptrend resumption.


How low can it go ? Bare in mind, downside is near the intended target of 1140. This is the first pit stop to gauge bulls’ conviction. Unless external factors are very bearish going forward, 1140 should stay, at least this week. If not, max risk is seen at 1120 this week.

I think it’s a bit risky for bargain-buy strategy this month as selling in stocks are likely to persist till mth end before any rebound in the beginning of 4Q. Prefer to consider long after stabililty, some bounce - meaning above 7SMA or Fbm above 1170. Wait for signal don’t guess!

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