Sunday, August 09, 2009

Market Talk : fear of China's bubble....unfounded ?


There is a lot of talk on China's bubble recently after the Shanghai index gains more 90% this year. But using China previous rally and percentage yearly gain as a yardstick (see above: red line/% represents yearly net change), this "bubble" is just the beginning maybe halfway but not near red alert level yet. Therefore, more space to go upside. so not too worry too much...at least not yet.
Once US economy is seen rebounding, not just recovery, equity mkt can difinitely rise further on growing risk appetite amongst money parking at the sidelines. A good way to judge the return of greater risk appetite is when Yen weakens above 100 per dollar again....carry trade, remember!...is back. Interestingly, the dollar jumps against the yen on Friday to 2-mth high.

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