MarketWrap : short term sell market....

Regional, specifically HS and China, tumbled on profit take selling ahead of Fed.

The first major setback in more than 4-weeks as Fbm.fkli finished below 7SMA. In 4-week, the mkt rallied, more than 125 points from 1060++ to 1185++. Pullback scenario : min 1/3 pullback > Horizontal support line ( see above) around 1140++. Immediate support is seen at 1160

Technically, mkt outlook shifts to a short term sell for consolidation mode.

Above 1180 can revive bulls hope but the next strong buy signal will appear if mkt cross above the horizontal resistance line. In the meantime, no urgency to go fresh long this week.

FKLI : morning gossip.....1180 in and out

DJ -90, with a pummeling in bank shares and jitters ahead of a Federal Reserve announcement giving investors a reason to retreat. ..CNN

8.20 : DJ futs +4. Regional down almost 1%.

Negative tone will prevails first and..... for the rest of the day ?

Mkt is set to create new week low today. Downside will move to 1175-1180 band if fbm breaks 1180. Otherwise, there is still a chance that the mkt can find support at 1180 on fbm's resilience. .....dragging the mkt uptrend tone for another day.

MarketWrap : hanging tight...

Profit taking in fbm continues. Fbm fails to impress despite strong regional for the past 2-day. These cause a tight range mkt –toppish but above 7SMA or 1180. So, neutral throughout the day and waiting for the next move higher.

Fkli positive due to large discount yesterday..at par with fbm now

Fkli mostly stuck at 1180-1185, maintaining a higher tone of 1180-1200 range. Chart outlook improve slightly following today’s white candlestick body. The good thing about toppishness scenario is that the longer it stays flat, the greater force for a breakout. Think positive.

Mkt is seen “parking” near 1200 this week for a breakout next week….ideally!

FKLI : morning gossip...1180-1185

DJ -30 ahead Fed's meeting.

8.30 am : DJ futs -12. Regional flat to mixed.

Initial tone is weak but amid the already big discount to Fbm, FKLi is likely to maintain a 1180-1185 range after last mins selling yesterday widened its basis.

As long as Fbm stays above 1180, downside is seen limited and mkt remains upbeat.

MarketWrap: one very small step towards 1200...isit

HS up on China stocks, especially the banks. Ironically, SH tone was negative.

Europe off to a negative start, but no market moving news. Mostly related profit take selling.

Our mkt underperformed and confined to 1180-1190 range in negative tone almost from the onset. Fbm staying power above 1190 in early trades, only lasted about 4 mins. All the way down since. Fkli saw discount widened on selling after 5.00pm, believed to be kwailow "last 15mins" kind of order.

While not impress with mkt sluggish performance, the mkt did stay above 1180. So, mkt is positive and hope for a new trading range of 1180-1200 remains intact.

Economic data week ahead : US Focus

selected few.....

Tues : Fed policy meeting

Wed : Fed r% decision, statement on economy outlook

Thu : July retail salse ( est +0.3% from June), weekly jobless claims, Wal-Mart Stores ( est +0.86 2Q09 vs +0.86 2Q08)

Market Talk : fear of China's bubble....unfounded ?

There is a lot of talk on China's bubble recently after the Shanghai index gains more 90% this year. But using China previous rally and percentage yearly gain as a yardstick (see above: red line/% represents yearly net change), this "bubble" is just the beginning maybe halfway but not near red alert level yet. Therefore, more space to go upside. so not too worry too much...at least not yet.

Once US economy is seen rebounding, not just recovery, equity mkt can difinitely rise further on growing risk appetite amongst money parking at the sidelines. A good way to judge the return of greater risk appetite is when Yen weakens above 100 per dollar again....carry trade, remember!...is back. Interestingly, the dollar jumps against the yen on Friday to 2-mth high.

MarketWrap : sweet and sour...

Market dragged lower by HS and China, both almost –3%, playing up liquidity issue again or just profits take ahead of US jobs report tonight.

Europe and DJ futs sharply lower after 4.15 pm.

Even though renewing year highs, its not really a “saving the best for last/Friday” case....ummmh.... but strong on weekly basis: a positive week with 1200 still in sight. Fbm remains above 1180 and as long as DJ does not do something stupid tonight, 1180-1200 is immediate trading reach in early next week. And if regional bullish, a breakout to 1200-1240 is the next target next week after 1200.

Otherwise, back to 1160-1180 “sleeping” range.

To the downside, below 7SMA is profit-take sell signal; below 1160 is renewed technical sell.

FKLi :morning gossip...1180-1185

DJ -20, so very cautious ahead of July jobs report tonight.

8.20 : DJ futs -6. Regional flat.

Looks like a quiet day. fkli is seen firm and range bound 1180-1190 on internal technical stregth and bargain buying. Then it will take cue from China and HS.

MarketWrap : bullish breakout.....finally

Fbm.fkli stage a breakout above 1180 when you least expect it. Dare to dream!. Regional reversed yesterday’s losses, except China, weighed by financial stocks, with mostly positive tone in the afternoon.

Commodity stocks strong today. Crude oil jumps to year-high, above 72.0.

Today’s is a breakout, moving out of the 1-week range neutral range. It would be nice to see 1200 tomorrow... a strong probability... but another breakout seems overdone this week amid its thin turnover for the past few days.

More importantly bulls must protect 1180 support tomorrow…and save the best for next week. !

FKLI : morning gossip....1170-1175

DJ -40, up run ended after two reports on Wednesday showed that the labor market continues to face challenges and that recovery on the employment front will be slow.

8.20 : DJ futs -20. Regional mixed. NK +40, Kos -2

Do not expect a selldown but fbm.fkli are seen at the lower band of 1170-1180 range. No major moves are expected before China opens.

MarketWrap : missing 1180..but fkli first white candle in 5

After an encouraging upside tone in the AM, mkt turned totally defensive in the PM, spook by regional weakness on banking stock, concerns over Chinese government to reduce liquidity. Must say holding quite well though. Fkli posted gains due to yesterday’s large discount to fbm…overall weak tone.


Still “a higher high and a higher low” condition, only missing a large white body candlestick to inject more confidence. Hope for a fkli strong closing above 1180 remains a dream. So mkt is considered range bound again,1160-1180 until next development.

But not very comfortable with the mkt toppishness stance… maybe the mkt is saving the best for last….meaning on Friday….then a fresh bull tone next week….

FKLi : morning gossip...1175-1182

DJ +33, ended a choppy session higher Tuesday as a better-than-expected housing market report helped investors extend the recent rally, leaving Wall Street at more than nine-month highs...CNN

8.20 : DJ futs -2. Regional firm, NK +14. Commodities prices are higher.

Another attempt at 1180 ...yes and keeping my fingers cross. Immediate support is raised to 1170.

first, fkli is seen narrowing the dis to fbm but unlikely to move ahead of fbm amid its recent toppishness. fmb have to lead above 1180.

MarketWrap : suprisingly toppish...a bad sign ?

Limited-upside for fkli. Fbm did hit new highs. Fkli generally weak when regional strong and soft when regional weak. Strong selling interest…probably profit-take, near1180 in early AM set fkli tone lower. But tight range…. the “narrowest” H-L range since 26/6.

Regional strong start but profit take set in later. HS snaps 3-day rally.

Technically, not much today… ..just missed a breakout. Fkli remains toppish..fbm is looking good. 7SMA support is closing-in with Aug09- another testing time for bulls.

FKLI : morning gossip...1177-1182

DJ +110/+1%, after better-than-expected readings on manufacturing and car sales added to bets that the economy is starting to stabilize...CNN

8.20 : DJ futs -4 Regional up 1%. Commodities sruge.

At 1% rate, the mkt is seen testing 1180++. The mkt will trade at the upper range of 1160-1180 instead of lower one, like yesterday. Mkt may stay here till HS opens...unless fbm can shoot above 1180. ..to justify a strong breakout.

CPO prices should lend a hand to push fbm higher via plantations heavyweight.

MarketWrap : firm but no upside....

Except for a few +ve moment in the early 30 mins or so, mkt mood was generally moody after Fbm experienced speedy descend, like last Friday. Regional strength calmed players. HS at 11-mth high.

Later, strong recovery seen after 4.00 pm on Europe strength this time. But mkt still cautious internally, waiting for DJ to start Aug-mth trading first, maybe. -

Fbm.fkli support at 7SMA again. While toppish at 1160-1180 for the last 5 days already, mkt is read for a breakout of 1180….yeeehahh! amid 1) strong support at lower end and 2) follow through on DJ side….after all last mth was DJ “best July” in 20 years. Of course, this is all talk.

Back to technical, above 1160 is an existing buy, above 1180 is a fresh buy.

Btw, crude oil is back to $70 for the fist time since July 1, after disappearing from the radar last mth, Hopefully it would push energy sector higher FIRST before inflation stories catch the headlines.

FKLI : morning gossip...1170++

DJ +17

8.34 : DJ futs -13. Regional flat to soft.

Fkli is seen firm near 1170++ to start and is seen steady within 1170-1180 first till HS opens.

Economic data ahead : US focus...

selected few and earnings report coming to an end...

Mon : July auto sales

Tue : June personal income ( -1% mtm) and spending (+0.3% mtm)

Wed : P&G ( est 2Q09 +0.79 vs +0.80 2Q08 ) Cisco Systems ( +0.28 vs +0.40 ). Prudential

Fri : July jobs report ( -333,000 jobs) , July unemployment ( 9.6%)

A quick look : Market ytd performance : %

A quick look : Market mthly performance in July %