Monday, April 19, 2010

Morning start.. fkli weak 1330-35 fcpo soft 2500-30

DJ -126 on GOLDMAN SACHS fraud charge. No fundamental change but a big and short term noise. Europe near -1.5% . This week, focus again on 1Q reporting and Thu's home sales data.

8.20 : DJ futs -35. Regional -1%. Commodity -2%. GOLD -2% CO -2.8%.

fkli : is seen protecting 30 first till fbm opens. but looks like to trade within 25-30 range once fbm breaks 1330 lvl. With the mkt testing support lvls, not encourage to turn position long yet, the mkt is unlikely to make any big buy signal today except for intra-day bargain buy near 20-25, if any.

fcpo SO -0.5%. unlikely to trigger a sell dw below 2500. Jul10 is seen moving within the recent ranges near 20-30 again.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Fcpo wrap...2500 survive...but danger looms








What to write ? ..z z z z z z

Another range play…firmer tone on SO +0.4% gains but activity the lowest this week. Again mostly the familiar 20-30 lvls. SO stuck near 40 this mth yet.



Fkli wrap...trading sell again..30 critical






All mkt in red on tech selling, taking cue from DJ futs and China new call for tightening the credit mkt spooked property stocks

Regional -1%. DJ futs -20 . Europe softer, better than Asian, -0.2%

Fmb ends near weekly low lvls, 30++ after a toppish 40-week, dragging fkli along. It looks like a sideways mkt next week but dwside risk is greater as both finish the week on trading sell tone, below 40. Fresh sell signal next week if 30 fails to hold.

Morning start...fkli firm 35-40 fcpo firm 2510-2540

DJ +21 on Google but gains limited on jobless claims data. Europe also +0.2%


8.30 : Dj futs -20. Regional weaker start., NK -80 Kos -3. Commodity flat to modest gains.

fkli : while DJ gain, it seems regional is not repsoding yet. it seems like a range bound mkt until the mkt reverse yest -ve, like if fbm > 40.

fcpo. SO +0.35. this should keep Jul above 2500 but expect another range bound day near 20-30

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Fcpo wrap....sideways still...quiet day


Fcpo extends it sell tone mkt , 4 days losing streak but in tight range yet. The wait for a new trend continues....away from 2500-2550 comfort zone.

Fkli wrap..too bad... underperform..Fbm 40 jinx




Fbm was very sluggish today, -ve most of the day. No interest in Top 30 stocks today despite strong externals….EPF why so quiet! Regional +0.5% on DJ led. Europe renewed years high but Dj futs -15.

Fbm turned +ve in preclosing stage with a 4p push on light bargain led by AXIATA ( 1.5p/4p)

Fkli shot near 50 in early trade but turned for the worse after fbm easily gave up 40 mark. It was all the way dw thenafter…mostly 37-38 in PM. The mkt was given a lifeline amid fbm’s preclosing bargain. As impressive, fkli also recovered 4p in late trading.


Technically, toppish again like around 40, especially fbm , but as long as mkt above 30, the uptrend momentum remains intact..albeit sleeping mode…..just need to give it a whack!



Morning start.. fkli bullish 45-50, fcpo firm 30-50

DJ +103, INTEL passing the baton to JP Morgan. Strong retail sales in March also helped. Europe +0.6%

8.20 : DJ ftus -5. Regional strong, NK +0.8% Kos +0.4%. Commodity strong, GOLD +15 CO +1.5%. Ringgit back to its recent highs. 3.18xx.

fkli : not too sure of a breakout of a fresh lvl but mkt is expected to park the near 50 if fbm steady above 40. fbm is expected to test 40-44 range .

fcpo : SO +0.2%, but strong RM may again hamper upside run. Jun10 is seen starting near 30 and possibly stuck within 30-50. Above 2520 is intra-day buy start.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Fcpo wrap...why no follow through....mostly rolls..


maybe strong Ringgit ...
Lack of power to push mkt higher and despite firmer SO, FCPO struggled to cross above resistance lvl and ended in –ve territory on selling activities after 5pm.
Short rolls dominates today ahead of APR10 exprity tomorrow
No game changing event today..as the mkt fails to depart from 20-30 this weke yet. So the waiting game continues......


Fkli wrap...back to weekly positive but...fbm @#$%





Fbm missed 40 target.. despite favorable externals factor. This caused fkli early upbeat tone to come to a halt, especially in PM but steady and maintained premium thanks to DJ futs +20 and Europe +0.5%.

Like yesterday, regional had a mixed day, still dare not rely on DJ small gains to make fresh move up. Both fbm.fkli quiet..only active in AM first 2 hours.

Fkli is back to upward-bias area above 40 but seems insignificant as its movement is heavily dependant on fbm amid a sideways tone.
If above "yellow" line/14 SMA...wait for a breakout above 50.


Morning start..fkli strong 1340+- fcpo 2530-2550

DJ +13 , as INTEL +ve beats Alcoa -ve. Overall still a mixed mkt with reporting noises. But the big trend is seen higher. Europe lower , 0.3%

8.20 : DJ futs +18. Regional +1%. NK +86. Kos +17. Commodity firmer tone but lackluster. GOLD flat. CO +0.4%.

fkli : while DJ not much moves, it seems regional more upbeat than yesterday with DJ futs +20. Still, expect a mixed day as upside will face profit -take sell pressure near 40++. Above 35 is a buy mkt. For sustainabel gains above 40, fbm needs to break 36 first.

fcpo : SO +0.2%. familiar ranges for fcpo but higher probability of parking near SMAs resistance, even though a breakout is unlikely today. Above 2520, is a buy mkt

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Fcpo wrap..a relief for bulls & no preclosing show off


Fcpo was relatively firm despite weaker commodity tone tone. SO managed to reverse some losses but still dw 1.6% from 2%. This also means another quiet day today-no upside potential but limited dwside too.

Same old story..mid range, waiting for the mkt to create direction.

Fkli wrap..too bad..no encouragement to test 50...





Mkts turned lower today, un-impressed with Alcoa result. DJ futs -20 all day long. Europe -0.2% in late Asian hours.

HS ( -34/-0.2%) and SH (+32/+1%) produced early gains, then a big pullback in late AM then a big bounce in early PM.…generally no clear direction yet. Despite firmer regional tone in PM, fbm renewed day lows on TENAGA and AXIATA.

With such externals, fkli lack yest’s follow through from get-go and hit lower support lvl today.
The mkt is back to trading sell, below 1340, again but seen consolidating sideways for the next move up. Below 1330 is the next sell signal for fbm and fkli.

Morning start...fkli firm 40-45 fcpo 2500-2530

DJ +8 with the Dow industrials closing above 11,000 for the first time in 18 months, after European leaders made loans available to Greece, tempering fears that the nation might have to default on its debt...CNN Europe mixed, flat.

8.21 : DJ futs -14. Reigonal -0.5%. Commodity slump 1%. GOLD -0.8%. CO -1.3%


fkli : DJ did not perform as "good" as expected. Upside seen limited, looks like a defensive play. Do not expect upside potential but same upper range of 40-45. fbm is seent aking 36-40 range on softer tone or in an out of 40 like yesterday, only above 42 is considered strong.

fcpo : SO -2% one-week lows, as weakness in world vegoil marketsand lingering uncertainty about China's rift with Argentina about soyoil imports weighed on prices. fcpo is seen taking the lower range of 2500-2530 but expect 2500 to hold.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Fcpo wrap...RM15 drop in preclosing...wtf!


Bears and bulls signed a pact to keep Fcpo in sideways first ? till when? Prices mostly firmer on SO +0.5%, nearing year highs. Some selling noted in PM opening but manage to reverse most of the losses after 5pm.

Jun10 finished the day net minus…but stronger tone than Fri…ignoring the preclosing event jump of RM60 last Fri and today’s RM15 drop. Still the same familiar range of 20-50 blah blah blah blah ...

Technically is bulls-bias. After consolidating for almost 4-weeks form a dwtrend move and pausing so long, so instead of double-bottom at 2400 it now looks like a possible cup and handle ( wide handle !!) formation IF it can break 2600 resistance.

Fkli wrap.."ready to break 50" tone...go for it!!





Off high on selling in the PM session as regional turned mixed. Financials and metal stock pushed mkt higher Monday. Europe strong start, +1% but small gains in late afternoon. Fbm.fkli established their positive tone in AM and successfully defending it in the afternoon.

The mkt is trending higher but in search for a newer trend/momentum, meaning above 50. If not 30-50 range, consolidating to accumulate bullets till next move. Keep this view if mkt stays above 30, bullish.

CPO : MPOB Mar10 dat ..within expecatations


Morning start ...fkli 1345++ fcpo 2550++

DJ +70, strong finish ahead of 1Q reporting. Europe +1%.

8.20 : DJ futs +43. Regional +1%. Commodity mixed. CO -0.7%. GOLd +1%

fkli : seen steady within 42-45 until fbm opens and catches up. Another run up towards 50 can be expected if fbm crosses above 38. .With fbm at 33-38 range, the premium may be too big to justify any sustainable attempt near 50.

fcpo. SO mixed, flat, +0.1%. While firmer tone expected, Jun10 is called to start near 2530-2550, as expecting the mkt to move back to its "normal" area.

Friday, April 09, 2010

FCPO wrap....5:59:59 squezze...RM60 jump




For real ?.. i guess not..at least back to 2550, the mid range of recent trading range. Mkt was mostly at 20-30 for the day b4 preclosing. The rest ot mths "normal"
While stronger ringgit put pressure, fcpo underperformed this week was mainly due to fear of strong production in Apr, meaning stocks up in Apr. (MAR data is due out Monday, mkt is pricing in APR data already)

Technically, mkt remains trap within 2500-2600 range. No clear direction, still indecisive state, in and out of SMAs. A breakdown below 2500 is of higher probability till the mkt regains at least 2550. ( have to watch out for further develoopment on Mon following today "abnormal" move.


Fkli wrap...ready for next run up again ? 40-80






Fbm flirted near intra day highs all day but finished near low after a 3p drop in the perclosing. PETGAS, GENTING. Fkli took an upbeat tone, slightly ahead of fbm afer fbm found support at 32.


After a 1/3 pullback on thu, mkt seems ready ( already), creating a springboard for the next jump with today's closing. Especially if fbm can break 40 next week. This would push the mkt to a newer upper range of 40-80 from 20-50. This trend is likely to continue if mkt above 30 or 14SMa ( yellow). Above 50, is fresh bullish tone.

Morning start ..fkli firm 30-35, fcpo 2500++

DJ +30 as upbeat sales reports from the nation's retailers helped provide optimism about the economic outlook, taking the edge off worries about Greece. Europe-1%

8.45 : DJ futs +3. Regional mixed, flat. Commodity firm, CO and GOLD +0.4%

fkli : firm range 30-40 range, below 30, target 20.

fcpo : SO -0.1%. Fcpo seen stay -ve for the day as tech weakness weigh, bearish if 2500 breaks, targeting 2400 in the coming days. If hold 2500-2530 range today.