A quick look : Regional equity market perfomance : in %

July/ytd


SH +15/+87

STI +14/+51

KOS +12/+39

HS +11/+43

TWI +10 /+55

FBM +9/+34

NK +4/+17

MarketWrap : FBM..what was that...duh!

Just you thought that fkli can easily sustain above 1170…but comes a shocker

Fbm suffers big dips on its own in the afternoon around 3.50 pm., causing big negative reaction in fkli activities, hitting intra-day low around 1165++ from 1175++ and the fall was rapid too, causing some panic. Why ?- I really do not know, maybe mth-end profit take ? some say ISA issue..huh!

Then, fbm jump back 6 points in the preclosing stage to close near the high....duh. But fkli "feeling" sudah very hurt ! so it fails to recover…struggling at the day low. ..too bad!

Fkli selling was a kneejerk……so the mkt can rebound on Monday amid the big discount to Fbm.

Upside target, 1200, remains intact. A convincing sell signal will appear if it cross below 7SMA or 1160 level. 1160-1180, tough to trade.

Above 1170 is +ve but familiar range so only a cross above 1180 is a strong buy signal.

Reminder : BM changes...

Come Aug 03....next Monday

1) no more second board. main board + 2nd board = Main Board

2) mesdaq will be known as ACE

3) take note of the change in "price tick" structure too.

FKLi : morning gossip....1165-1170

DJ +90/+1%, amid report that suggested the labor market is starting to stabilize.


8.40 : DJ futs +3 NK +1% Kos flat. Commodities very strong

FKLi downside is safe again. the mkt is seen doing the upper range of 1160-1170. A breakout above 1170 is possible . ..but have to see strong signal from fbm or HS.

MarketWrap: trying hard to keep uptrend intact...

Mkt was supported, thanks to regional recovery from the previous day’s big losses. But upside almost non-existing amid lack of direction from DJ. Fkli did attempt at 1070 but was consistently held up by fbm’s inability to clear 1160 convincingly.

While negative and toppish at 70, both managed to hold above 7SMA., so uptrend remains intact.

But will have to wait awhile before initiating new moves, to buy above 1075… next week ?? I

Immediate concern is can it stay above 7SMA tomorrow? At the mercy of DJ tonight. If breaks, 1140 is high probability.

FKLI : morning gossip.....1160-1164

DJ -25, lower but another bounce back from 9000 points.

8.30 am DJ futs +4 Regional quiet. NK +4 Kos-7.

FKLI is seen steady above 1160 first until fbm opens. Its good enough if the mkt can stay above 7SMA and then range bound within 1160-1170. Surprise to the upside will depend on HS and CHina perfomance.

Below 1170 is a sell mkt. Q is will there be a fresh sell call below 7SMA.

MarketWrap : spook by China in the afternoon...

China spooks the mkt in the afternoon as a return to tightening policy inspires profit take. Panic set in but managed to recoup some losses by the end of the day. Luckily “just profit taking only lah” sentiment prevails. But, Europe strong.

Fbm.fkli hit the low on kneejerk reaction in the first 30 mins of PM trading. Recent bullish tone help to support the mkt above 1160. Still, China plunge cost the mkt almost 10 points.

Like the many previous cases in this month run, weaknesses only give toppish outlook but yet remains resilient.- meaning the mkt uptrend still intact, 1200 target is still alive as its above 7SMA.

Next immediate buy signal is above 1170 or 1175. Below 7SMA is sell.

FKLI : morning gossip...1170-1175

DJ -12, small losses after strong recovery. "Stocks ended mixed Tuesday as investors weighed a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence report and a better-than-expected housing report in the aftermath of a big rally."..CNN

8.30 : DJ -20. Regional just marginally lower.

DJ losses are unlikely to affect sentiment here- meaning the mkt will remian uptrend. While it may spark profit take sell in initial trades , late buyers are expected to hold the mkt well. Probably, till China opens aorund 9.25am, followed by HS at 10.00am

Above 1170, is a buy and there is a strong chance of another run. Below 1170, intra-day sell with a tight stop at new high. With cautious extrenal factors, fki upside is derived from fbm sentiment.

MarketWrap : a breakout it is....

As if disappointed with its performance yesterday, mkt came back with a vengeance and established a much needed fresh moves - up again.

Regional higher, led by HS on strong lending data , re-igniting hopes for recovery in the property sector.

Fbm posted strong gains today following a breakout above 1160. This technical breakout enticed more participations, especially since regional so strong.

Fkli, which was dangerously toppish for the last 2-days, borrowed fbm strength first before making is own run especially above 1170.

1200 seems certain this week – at least ONE attempt to satisfy mkt bull’s appetite. Very bullish if both mkt stays above 7SMA.

So, be can careful if you are trying to sell on strength for pullback –a bad strategy this month…on hindsight.

MarketWrap: neutral day....toppish but resilient..

Regional strong but fbm did not react External serves only as a support instead of a push Fbm minus throughout and in the case of saving the best for last, its only +ve data for the day came with the closing data.

But, chart toppish outlook at 1160 for four consecutive days data. Ironically, also 4-day wining streak, worth 20 points. Imagine the range !


Fkli upbeat-ness was dampened by fbm. But sellers sidelined amid strong regional mkts. July09 rocks back n forth in a “see how tomorrow” sentiment. Dreadfully dull.

Watch out for 1150-1160 breakout again, especially fbm. 7SMA is catching up fast so there is no room for more dilly-dally – either a breakout towards 1200 or a pullback toward 1140.

FKLI : morning gossip

DJ +24

8.30 : DJ futs -20. NK above 10,000 for the first time in four weeks, +148/+1%. Kos +1% .

Regional a positive start. This should give fbm.fkli an incentives to extend last week's bullish tone. The question remains can fbm finish above 1160 today ?

Below 1160 is a sell mkt, targeting 1140++.

Above 1160 could initiate a run towards 1180-fkli, with fbm seen at 1170++, represents a 1% gain.

Economic data week ahead : US focus...

......and earnings reports... 146 or 29% S&P500 companies

Mon : June new home sales ( est 355000 unit )

Tues : BP

Wed: TimeWarner, Aetna, ConocoPhillips

Thus : Exxon Mobil( est +1.03 2Q09 vs +2.27 2Q08), Travelers ( +1.28 vs +1.50), weekly unemployment claims

Fri : initial reading of 2Q GDP ( est. -1.5% vs -5.5% in 1Q09)

MarketWrap : preparing for next week bull run...

A quiet day that saw fbm taking profits from onset.

On the back of DJ overnight gains, fkli hit new high, waited for fbm. But to bulls disappointment, fbm did not perform to expectations, meaning still toppish at 1160 for three consecutive days. This spurred weekend selling even before the breakfast is over. Price found support at 1150.

Generally, the mkt is bullish if above 1140 or above 7SMA. Below 7SMA is a strong sell signal. Otherwise any weakness on profit take would entice bargains, like this week.

If fbm can break 1160 next week, after so many toppish days, it’s a strong buy signal towards 1200. I think fkli is anticipating this. So, as long as fbm is near a breakout lvl, fkli bulls will not give up just yet

Plus, DJ closing above 9000 represents a technical breakout. If it can find support here tonight, a new bullish trading range of 9000-9600 is a high probability.

FKLI : morning gossip....1160 for the start

DJ +190/+2%, hitting its highest point since November, as investors welcomed better-than-expected quarterly results and home sales. June existing home sales rose to a 4.89 million unit annual rate from a revised 4.72 million unit rate in May. And a case of " bad but less bad "....unemployment rose to 554,000 last week from 524,000 in the previous week. CNN

8.35 : DJ futs -30. NK +1% Kos +0.5% Crude oil very strong, like in the past few days., nearing $70 again.

At 1% gains, fbm.fkli are seen testing their respective highs of 1060++. Another run is possible b4 intra-day profit take set in. If so, 1160-1170 would be the immediate trading range and support is raised to 1154.5.

MarketWrap : strong, but 1160 remains elusive...

Cautious start but later extends gains, taking cue from HS powerful show. Higher commodity price boosted mkt sentiment, again.

From the start, fkli was strong, eager to run ahead of FBM. But fbm was a bit shaky near 1160 amid concerns over DJ overnight loss. Still, finance and plantations sector strong.

The mkt is so resilient; it makes you wonder whether the target for this run is 1160 or 1200. The mkt is now toppish at 1160 especially fbm but bulls not giving up just yet, anticipating strong US economic data tonight.


Above 1150, still a buy mkt. Above 1160, watch out for another bull run especially if FBM leads. To the downside, if any, downside should be limited at 7SMA tomorrow.

A quick look : market PRICE performance....

Market % chg vs. year 2007 closing. Klci plunge from Mar 2008 (-40%) , consolidate-lower from Oct08 till Mar09, then onwards recovery mode. ( still down -20% since the end of 2007)


Klci and ringgit performance since 2008. Chart says : Generally ringgit weaks, klci weaks and vice versa. Will the two cross path again, a positive one ? I hope so, as it will mean very bullish market.

FKLI : morning gossip.....1145-1150

DJ -34.

8.30 : DJ futs +4. Regional steady. NK +7 Kos +1

Wait n see for Fkli direction, mostly within 1130-1150 for the past 3 days. It looks like a renging mkt today.

Can the mkt hold up its run today ? I dont know. But will use 1140 as a benchmark. Below 1140, risk of a pullback is great...if so technical support is seen at 1130.

To the upside, above 1150 would inpsire bulls to revisit 1160 again.

MarketWrap: wow....another strong perfomance

Bears went into hiding again. Bulls stampede its way to the “top” of 1060. Credit to FBM for taking it own pace while regional play catching up. Rather unfamiliar pattern.

Already in the morning the mkt performed better than expected, it went another mile in the PM before profit take at 1160, chase by players afraid of "risk of not in the mkt".

While bullish tone, profit-take noted at higher end for the past two days. But sentiment was not affected yet. External factors provide support and as incentives recently for bulls to push price higher and higher, taking advantage of the rally mode.

The 1060-1065 band is the major top hit in late July2008. If there is such thing as strong resistance, this is it. Just in case: A clear breach could send mkt towards 1200 but this week ?

A quick take : FBM top gainer in AM ..ttl +19.24

FBM/Fkli high 1155/1159.

1) top sector : plantation, finance

2) top stock gainers : in blue....

ation

FKLI : morning gossip...1130-1135 first

DJ +70, 6 month high, 7 days winning run

8.35 : DJ futs -20. NK -42 on yen gains. Kos -3.

Enough to reverse yesterday's momentum ? May be not. mkt is seen soft till HS opens. Everyoen seems a bit "tired" and DJ double-digit gains may not be so attrative given it recents big triple digit gains. Plus, many would be worry of a pullback now.

Below 1040, a sell mkt today.