FCPO wrap : strong bounce but dead cat range..2450-2530

-fcpo finished off it lows on profit take buying in PM amid a lack of fresh externals. CO also reduced it losses to -1% from near -2%

-today effort has yet to change the mkt bearishness. It could still be a dead cat bounce scenario, if its stuck below 2500 or 7SMA.

-below 2450 is the next big sell signals. Below 7SMA is sell mkt.

FKLI wrap : manage to keep bullish outlook

-despite DJ overnight losses and weaker regional, fbm.fkli maintains positive posture after fending off early selling pressure. Internal strength provided support.

-while mostly lower, regional losses were limited to DJ effect and occasionally bargains buying. With DJ holiday tonight, eyes on Europe. For start, Europe flat to +0.5%

-technical outlook remains strong – above 7SMA despite DJ triple digit losses. Just missing the anticipated follow through today. Bulls are waiting for the right time …polishing horns at mom!

Hi Zac... FYI

Morning gossip... fkli hold, fcpo bearish

DJ -100 as JPMorgan reported big losses on credit card and mortgage loans, concerning investors who were looking for signs that credit is improving.

8.30 AM : DJ futs -10. Regional at -0.5% to -1%. Nk -160. Commodites in line with equity, about -1%.

FKLI - while lack of follow through incentives, the mkt is seen softer within 95-00 again. The market is expected to stay above it immediate support of 7SMA.

FCPO - bearish trend continues wiht SO and CO near- 2%. This would mean FCPO Apr is lookint at 2450-60 for start, dw about RM40. Below 2471 is intra day sell. Dw side is 2400.

FCPO wrap : bearish day ...bears eyeing ....2300++

-fcpo lost RM140 for the week. For the week FCPO/SO/CO lost 4%.

-bearish unless mkt regains 2550 first as the mkt is seen heading or 100/200 SMA before bears give up. A mid bounce in soyoil would be enough to fend off selling pressure, unless SO regains US$0.40. Plus FCPO is doing at a strong premium to soyoil , no thanks to a stronger ringgit.

-all it takes is a soft opening to reignite bears interest again.

FKLI wrap: finally..a bullish breakout..yeahyeah!!!

-regional mixed but generally Ok tone. DJ firm in late Asian hours from -20 to 0 while Europe starts on firm - just positive

-fbm upbeat in AM, off steam in PM after HS takes 3-digit losses around -120. Manage to park near 1300 on late buying activities. Other external markets steady or firm.

-fkli.fbm while off highs, still consider a positive tone technically, especially Fbm, setting a strong springboard for a new trading range of 1300-1320. Bulls’ patience pays off at the end of the week after almost 7-days of flip-flopping. Hopefully external will reinforce follow through next week.

Morning gossip...same range as Thu..fkli firm, fcpo soft

DJ +20, led by technology shares, as investors looked past the day's ho-hum economic news and geared up for Intel's quarterly report, released shortly after the bell. After the close, Intel said it earned 40 cents per share in the fourth quarter on sales of $10.6 billion. Both earnings and sales trounced estimates....CNN

8.30 : DJ -2. Regional flat, just +ve. Commodites weak on CO leads.

Fkli - no external factors to push it higher, likely to stuck within 95-00 again. Expecting a firmer fbm today, inching towards 1300 if can sustain above 1292.

FCPO- bulls are not getting help from SO. SO -0.5% CO -1.5%. Same range as yest 2500-2550, with downside-bias but expect 2480-2500 support to hold. Above 2520 is intra-day buy. Below 2500 expect some keenjerk reaction.

FCPO wrap : a mild rebound...still in bears grip

-mild rebound amid firmer external factors as commodities on recovery mode after a bad start since beginning this year

- Fcpo Mar10 stuck in a 2500-2550 tight range with mostly position adjustments activities with the bears taking a break first.

-fcpo very much remains in a bearish environment. Bears are expected to launch another attack next week to see whether 2480-2500 support can hold. To discourage the bears, we need to see the mkt regaining at least 2570.

FKLI wrap : this time for real ? initiating a breakout

-equities strong across the board on financials/commodities stock bargain. Regional, except HS -30 on late selling activities, and Europe at +1%.

-fkli managed to reverse yest’s negatives and return to a more upward-bias band of 95-00. But no breakout still, due the premium over fbm - sixth attempts at 1300 and fbm remains a drag.

-bulls can cheer as the fkli did finish with a white candle, the first in 6-day Plus both fbm/fkli cross back above 7SMA – renewing hopes of a breakout even though a 90-00 range trading remains possible until a closing above 1300

Morning gossip...fkli firm, fcpo short covering

DJ +50/+0.5% on financials depsite selling comodities stock.

8.30 : DJ futs +4. Regional doing +0.5% range. Comodities extend thier weakness..

FKLI - 90 will probably remains as support, seen taking the upper of 90-95 range but do not expect a breakout. Target is to reverse yest negative back to neutral - steady near 95++, therefore keeping 1300 alive after a scare yest.

FCPO - firmer 2500-2550 range on short covering with SO 1% but CO -0.5%. Expect to face strong resistance near short term SMAs.

FCPO wrap : bearish day. but bottom for the week?

-weakness continues, at 3-week low on weak externals and technical selling. Mkt is back at a lvl before the recent rally from 2500-2700.

-late profit-take buying push mkt back up above 2500. And bulls will be lucky if the mkt can consolidate within 2480-2550 to avoid another breakdw and wait for external to improve.

-Maybe this is the bottom this week and some rebound towards 2550 first after a RM200 plunge in 5-days. But it would an uphill task to reverse this dw trend as bears probably set sight on 2300++ in the near term.

-a breach of 2480 ,especially next week , is a big sell signal for the bears.

FKLI wrap : very resilient...but technically -ve bias

-regional slump on concern over China purse tightening policy. Earlier sentiment was affected by weaker DJ and commodities.

-our mkts are very resilient, not wanting to give up 90 this week yet. But 1300 seems off the mark with immediate focus now is where will the mkt stabilize. Fkli rewarded bulls effort by staying above 90 but technically one small step for bears as both fbm/fkli aren ow at trading sell zone – below 7SMA., 84-94 range from 90-00 range.

-at best, externals would push it back to a “more neutral” range of 1290-1300 this week.

-DJ futs firm at the end of Asian hours while Europe off lows and flat.

Morning gossip..fkli poor start, fcpo bearish start

DJ -30, Europe dw 1%, on concerns over 4Q earning results....after a bad start with Alcoa's miss.

8.15 : DJ futs +2. Regional dw 1%. Commodities slump 2%

FKLI - can 90 hold ? initial seling is likely to create 86-90 range and technical selling will exert pressure today. Probably a sell mkt today, stopping near 86++. To the upside, staying above 90-93 is the upside potential.

FCPO - will take another beating today, with SO/CO -2% on on late technical selling Generally, it looks like 2500-2550 trading range. Resistance is lowered to 2570 from 2600.

FCPO wrap : bearish below 30 SMA, 2500-2600

-weak external continues to drag fcpo lower. but light bargain hunting or short covering seen with price reaches major support lvl. Fcpo is on a 4-day-RM150 losing streak after recent 8-day-RM250 winning streak.

-technically looks bearish as SMAs now become resistance. Due for bounce but sentiment is negative with sell-on strength tone...so it requires strong external to provide some initial charge to avoid bearish crossing between SMAs to happen.

-to the high side, 2600 still a good bet this week. to the dwside, the last defence for bulls is 2500, is this goes, 100SMA is the next target - 2300++.

FKLI wrap : can mkt stay above 7SMA ? or 1270 coming

-mostly cautious stance in Asian after Alcoa’s profits missed expectations, causing investors to sidelines for some “brain storming” first. Prices mostly recovered in PM, taking cue from China, +2%. But not enough to churn new gains, HS -85/-0.5%

-fbm and fkli all quiet today. “fkli” was disappointed with fbm..failing to improve in PM. Late selling pulled it back towards AM’s lows as DJ futs points to a weak start, -40.

-Trading limited to the same range since last’s Wed. This fishing trip seems last forever…without any big fish. And with bad feeling too! SMA catching up fast n this could give bears to step up their game if a breakout fails to occur.

Morning gossip : FKLI stready, FCPO extends losses

DJ +45 but cautious with most Europe mkts off high with commodities price retreating

8.30 am : DJ futs -20. Regional near +0.5%. Except gold, commodities mkt giving up Mon's gains, if any. -1% to -1.5%. RM off highs against the dollar.

FKLI - it does not look like a condusive environment to break 1300...so probably about the same range as yest. At best, fbm is seen parking near 1300 not a breakout. Can fbm keeps 95-00 range ? Dwside risk remains at 90.

FCPO - bulls struggle continues...seen testing major support zone 2550++ SO/CO are dw 1.5% at mom. Trading range is lower to 2550-2600 with high risk of knee jerk reaction towards 2500.

FCPO Wrap: negaitve tone to start the week...

-fcpo bulls faced triple bad news – a very strong RM, weak soyoil and large CPO stockpiles –causing a breach of 2600 support.

-If the mkt uptrend is here to stay, fcpo is likely to find support near 2550++. But instead of a “V” bound the mkt may consolidate within 2550-2650 first this week b4 any chance of hitting 2800.

-below 2600 is a sell mkt. It needs to break above 2650 to revive upward momentum. Otherwise, negative to neutral. Below the green line, 30SMA, is bearish.

FKLI Wrap : 1cm closer to 1300...

-fbmfkli only manage small gain. Regional upbeat, +0.5%, on China after regulator says yes to index futures. A positive sign to satisfy “global” players demand/appetite. Europe also strong on commodities…gold and crude at multiple mth highs

-fkli still stuck within 1290-1300 range….intention to break above 1300 but at mom waiting for fbm to catch up first before making a decisive move. Fbm did create some positive move today – inching closer to 1300.

-technically, look at the chart….last 4 trading day sama aje! But upward-bias, above 7SMA and still waiting for a breakout higher.

CPO Dec09 MPOB : negative on large stockpiles

Miorning gossip ...attacking 1300 again...4th time

DJ +11 Fri, finished the week positive ahead of earning reporting season , starting this week.

8.30 : DJ futs +30. Regional 0.55 to 1%. Most mkts upbeat at the expense of a weak dollar. Soyoil rebounds +0.5%, on recovery mode as crude oil seen at multiple mths highs, +1%.

FKLI seen taking 1295-1300 range first, unlikel to break 1300 till fbm opens. Strong chance of a breakout above 1300 as fbm is expected to park near 1300 today on the bakc of very strong ringgit.

FCPO is seen firm, +RM20 taking the higher band of 2600-2650 neutral range. Arbitaging selling amid the strong ringgit could prevent big gains today. 2700 top today.

FKLI : parking at high end..ready for 1300 next week

-steady ahead of weekend…3 day toppish at 1300 but seems ready to make major attack at 1300 next week

-same range for the past 3 day... 1290-1300…on profit take at 1300 after a mini bull run from 66 since near year.

-support is raised to 1290.

Morning gossip....looks quiet with neutral tone seen

a )DJ +30.

8.30 : DJ futs +1. Reigonal firm, NK strong on weaker yen, +130/+1%. Commodities weak tone but almost flat, -0.5%, in early Asian hours.

Looks like 90 can sustain for this week. 90-95 firm range for start but unlikely to breakout of 1290-1300. Instead dwside risk is higher amid internal toppishness. only bullish external today could change that. otherwise players will take sidelines ahead of weekend

While a breakout point is 1300, a cross above 96.5 looks a good bet to enter long for next week activities. Or wait near 80-85 range.

Fbm >90, Fkli >93 intra buy tone.

b) At this point, fcpo is seen weak within 2600-2630 range, with soyoil -0.5%, crude oil flat.

FCPO : pullback tone..aiming 2600-2650 range ?

-off to a bad start on soyoil sudden -2% drop and got worse in afternoon after Europe opens. Weak equity also affected mkt tone.

-profit take from get-go after 2700 looked so "far away". Steady near 2650++ before kwailow selling after 5pm.

-resistance is lowered to 2650 from 2700. Below 2650, a trading sell mkt as pullback mode could reach 2600 support tomorrow. Immediate strong buy signal is above 2670. Position wise, wait for stregth to enter long again.

FKLI : toppish..have to wait next week for fresh run

-steady in AM despite profit taking at 1300 but took a hit in PM as regional booked a -1% loss after China raised R% -unexpectedly.

-1300 seems off this week after 2-day of toppish outlook. The mkt could see more pullback first towards 80-85 before another move to break 1300. DJ is seen cautious today ahead of job data on Friday.

- a trading sell if 90 breaks tomorrow towards a very meaningful support -7SMA but this could also be a good chance for bargain to those whom r still sidelines. (yours truly) just try to enter long on strength.

Morning gossip...seen steady near 1295-1300

A) everything flat except commodities.

DJ +1 . Commodites near +1%. Dollar weak.

8.14 : DJ futs -2. Regional soft but flattish.

Fkli seen trading within yest's range 1292-1300. unlikely to break 1300 unless HS surges. But dwside seen limited on stronger ringgit....indicatings stong foreign interest.

Technically, a profit taking mode if below 1297 today. Above, potential run up again.

B) FCPO looks firm within 2700-2750. Above 2680 is a buy mkt.

FCPO : no move..struggle to maintain upside

-a quiet day and not yet give up an immediate run towards 2800 on recent strong run but very tight range

- today it was another tough day, like mon n tues, amid as weak external compounds " RM202 gains in 8 days winning streak" fear tactor. Kudos to bulls effort ...but seriusly mkt is lack of sellers amid the bullish tone..seems this way as long as mkt above 2650++

-tomorrow only long if 2726 resistance breaks otherwise wait near 2650++. It looks like a 2650-2700 range unless soyoil catches up...fcpo is ahead by 1% so far.

FKLI : tested 1300 but cautiously toppish

-regional mostly higher around +1% on banks, except China -1%

- despite profit take fkli ahead of fbm, as fbm remains robust and steady. However, with 1300 as high, fkli may take a breather first if no external +ve.

-technically, above 92 is bullish but fresh buy signal only emerge if 1300 breaks. otherwise a strong possibility of a pullback towards 86++ first.

FKLI morning gossip....profit taking or 1300 first ?

DJ -11.

8.15 : Dj futs -10. Regional flat.

Frist steady near 90, waiting for fbm to open. fkli will make a run if fbm breaks new hight near 1291. Still 1300 looks a good trading sell today.

Got chance to enter long at support lvl, near 80. Strong support seen at 1274++ Trading sell, if below 92, remains longer term position buy with the mkt above 7SMA.

FCPO : bullish, above 7SMA, aiming 2800..but

-no doubt bullish tone, major target 2800 to complete a “W” formation

-but short term pullback towards 2600-2650 looks more likely first, if fails again to break 2700 resistance tomorrow, after a more than RM180 gains in the last 7 days. Below 2700 seen as short term sell

-so for buying, wait at 2650 or brave yourself to buy on breakout above 27

FKLI : bullish tone, target 1300

-Foreign funds are believed adding Asian stocks today

-convincing technical breakout, raising trading lvl to 1270-1350 in Jan10

-1300 resistance this week ? but it seems selling only for short term, bear in mind that a fresh trend in our mkt tends to gain 50 to 70. If 1270 is tyhe starting point....anything above 1300-1350 is not too far.

US data week ahead....

not much this week except Fri.

The idea is to look for consumer-related data that could justify further recovery instead of a byproduct of government spending.

Where is the mkt heading…my bet is bullish 1Q10

While there is a lot of cautiousness in the air, this was mainly due to the fact that we did not expect 2009 to be such a strong comeback year. But the fact remains, economic data did recover…like US housing and consumer data and activities yet not reach “overheating/bubble” concerns…with commodity prices still off their historical highs. Lehman was the “game changing” event. What is the next “game-changing” event…the bond mkt..i do not know. In the meantime, the bet is for more recovery.


Data to watch…1) Fed action when and if it raises interest rate > $ up > dw risk “reverse carry trade:” and pressure on commodity price. 2) US 10y bond price > if above 100 > negative signal > money shifts from equity to bond. 3) Anwar sodomy case…beginning Jan 25 > dw risk > political instability.


Technically, most mkts are still in an uptrend trajectory if not, range-but-upward-bias mode from a long term view. In short, more room for upside FIRST (see below) before and if, George Soros is correct about its “double bottom” theory

.

At a glance : BMD makes RM20 million revenue !?

BMD, please use your money to develop more futures products like gold, crude oil...

FCPO - another record high vol.

FKLI - if 2009 rate continues in 2010, futures brokers will be in deep #$%&.

At a glance : 2009's top and bottom

Arbitraging next year -sell the "top" and buy the "bottom" ???

Commodity - Rubber in Tocom and Sugar in ICE post triple digit % gains.

US & Europe index in 2009.